Afternoon summary
That’s all from me for today.
Thanks for the comments.
It seems the Boris Johnson ‘foot on the table’ picture was not all that it seems. According to Sky’s Tom Rayner, Johnson was responding to a jokey suggestion from Emmanuel Macron that the table would work well as a footstool. Johnson put his foot on the table only very fleetingly.
WATCH: Here’s the Reuters video of Boris Johnson putting his foot on the Elysee furniture. It seems President Macron was making small talk suggesting the table would work equally well as a footstool should the PM want to recline, which Johnson then jokingly does pic.twitter.com/dnv37t9mS4
— Tom Rayner (@RaynerSkyNews) August 22, 2019
As the Wall Street Journal’s Bojan Pancevski says, the full photograph is superb.
Excellent photograph. What a Rembrandtesque composition: Macron out-alphaed, the scrum in the mirror and the ballerino-like flunky https://t.co/yYLDlZugrg
— Bojan Pancevski (@bopanc) August 22, 2019
My colleague Jessica Elgot has more on the meeting that Jeremy Corbyn is holding next week with MPs from other parties to discuss efforts to stop a no-deal Brexit.
Corbyn meeting latest
— Jessica Elgot (@jessicaelgot) August 22, 2019
- Boles will not attend and says focus must be on legislation - and avoiding no deal election
- Spelman says no in any circs
- Grieve open to dialogue in principle, cannot make meeting
- Soubry to attend but also emphasise legislation https://t.co/VauTgU37Ug
Several sources familiar with Tory rebels thinking say that, frankly, they believe they already have the necessary backchannels to the Labour leadership and that immediate efforts to pass legislation stopping no deal are best led by backbenchers to ensure maximum support https://t.co/F1dELSGbyW
— Jessica Elgot (@jessicaelgot) August 22, 2019
This is from the Financial Times’ Sebastian Payne.
In case we weren't sure about Merkel's 30 days remark, a senior German official gets in touch to say she was being "polite". Those with knowledge of the Chancellor's thinking say she's concluded “the train has already left the station” and it’s almost impossible to stop no deal.
— Sebastian Payne (@SebastianEPayne) August 22, 2019
Boris Johnson has tweeted a picture of himself with Emmanuel Macron. In this one he’s got his feet on the floor.
Today I met President @EmmanuelMacron in Paris. Let’s get Brexit done, sensibly and pragmatically and in the interests of both sides. Let’s get on with deepening and intensifying the friendship and the partnership between our nations. pic.twitter.com/qv7BlAOhW7
— Boris Johnson (@BorisJohnson) August 22, 2019
Boris Johnson opted for the informal approach as he sat down with Emmanuel Macron in the Élysée Palace. But is it really okay to put your foot on someone else’s table when you’re a guest? That would never have happened with Theresa May.
UPDATE: Pictures do not always tell the full story. See 4.53pm.
Updated
On the World at One Tony Smith, a former director general of the UK Border Force and a member of the panel advising the Alternative Arrangements Commission, said the EU should take its recommendations more seriously. Boris Johnson says the AAC’s report shows why the backstop is unnecessary, because other mechanisms could avoid the need for a hard border in Ireland after Brexit. Smith explained:
What [the EU] have missed is (a) that borders generally globally are going through a paradigm shift [with the] introduction of digital technology and systems, and processes. So the days in which I operated, when you are sitting out in a kiosk, checking papers on a border post, are disappearing anyway, globally.
Regardless of what’s happening in Ireland I think they need to give due weight to that and look a lot more closely - you know, you can actually have an invisible border. There are other ways of doing checks now because of technology. It’s not just technology, it needs regulation as well and cooperation and goodwill. I think that’s what’s been lacking.
We haven’t been able to get traction at the right levels in the [European] commission with our report, and with UK officials, to be able to push this down to an operational level to talk about what practically can we do on both sides to deliver the border that we need.
Updated
The Press Association report quoted Emmanuel Macron as saying he was seen as the “the hard boy in the group” on Brexit (see 1.25pm), but this might not be the best translation. My colleague Angelique Chrisafis just translated it as “toughest” in the group. What he said in French was “le plus dur de la bande”.
Emmanuel Macron face à Boris Johnson: "On m'a toujours dépeint comme le plus dur de la bande" pic.twitter.com/lJXgTDMdbO
— BFMTV (@BFMTV) August 22, 2019
Merkel says she did not mean '30 days' as a literal deadline for solution to backstop
Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, has clarified that when she spoke about Boris Johnson having 30 days to come up with a solution to the backstop yesterday, she was not setting a literal deadline. Speaking at a news conference in The Hague, she said:
I said that what one can achieve in three or two years can also be achieved in 30 days. Better said, one must say that one can also achieve it by 31 October.
It is not about 30 days. The 30 days were meant as an example to highlight the fact that we need to achieve it in a short time because Britain had said they want to leave the European Union on 31 October.
(Some of us thought that it was clear that Merkel was only making a general point, and not referring to a date on the calendar, although Boris Johnson was happy to treat this as a firm timetable.)
Merkel now seems to be saying that the deadline is 31 October. But this contradicts what Emmanuel Macron, the French president, said at his event with Johnson earlier. “No one will wait until October 31 to find the right solution,” said Macron.
Updated
Here is my colleague Angelique Chrisafis’ take from Paris on the Merkel/Johnson meeting.
What to take away from Macron & Johnson's comments and back-slapping on steps of the Elysée palace? Macron is well aware of a temptation in some UK quarters to blame France as the bad guy scuppering Brexit plans, so he put the ball back into Johnson's court (1)
— Angelique Chrisafis (@achrisafis) August 22, 2019
He backed Merkel that London must come forward with its promised concrete proposals for the UK's exit from the EU "within 30 days" - now up to UK to provide a backstop alternative which fits current withdrawal agreement & respects red lines on Ireland & single market (2)
— Angelique Chrisafis (@achrisafis) August 22, 2019
Macron said “No one is going to wait until October 31 to find the right solution." In other words: present your proposals, we're listening. He added: "We should all together be able to find something smart within 30 days if there is goodwill on both sides.” (3)
— Angelique Chrisafis (@achrisafis) August 22, 2019
Macron said this was the UK's responsibility. If nothing workable was presented, it would mean "that the problem is deeper, more political - a British political problem". At that point, "It would be up to the prime minister to make a choice" - not the EU (4)
— Angelique Chrisafis (@achrisafis) August 22, 2019
Macron and Johnson were extremely friendly, cheerfully slapping each other on the back. The relationship is excellent, officials said. But everyone in France knows Johnson's history of French-bashing for political gain back home. (5)
— Angelique Chrisafis (@achrisafis) August 22, 2019
Macron moved to cut down the blame-game & absolve France straight away. "I've always been portrayed as the toughest of the group," he said looking Johnson in the eye. But he said the EU27 stood together and he believed the UK's sovereign vote must be respected (6)
— Angelique Chrisafis (@achrisafis) August 22, 2019
When Macron said last night that Johnson's request to renegotiate the withdrawal agreement minus the backstop was "not an option", Downing St was left scrabbling. Macron said today: “On Brexit my position is clear and I know how much that occupies your days and your nights”. (7)
— Angelique Chrisafis (@achrisafis) August 22, 2019
Johnson & Macron then ate lunch together and walked around the Elysée gardens in the sunshine. Next move is perhaps back to Barnier. Macron suggested Barnier could be involved in finding an answer "without totally reshuffling the Withdrawal Agreement" (8/ends)
— Angelique Chrisafis (@achrisafis) August 22, 2019
Brexit 'an exercise far beyond Whitehall as it currently works', Dominic Cummings said in 2014
David Davis may think that the government will be able to cope with a no-deal Brexit perfectly well (see 10.52am), but in the past Dominic Cummings, Boris Johnson’s de facto chief of staff, took a very different view. By chance I was clearing out some shelves in the office yesterday and discovered a report written by Cummings in June 2014, a good two years before the EU referendum. It presented the findings of focus group research exploring attitudes towards the EU, and it concluded with a paragraph about what actually leaving the EU would be like. Cummings wrote:
Leaving the EU would be a huge and complex affair that would require resources far beyond the reach of any political party or normal campaign, and, in this author’s opinion, would be an exercise far beyond Whitehall as it currently works. Those who want either substantial reform of the EU or leave will have to innovate. One obvious idea is to develop a roadmap and the framework for a new UK-EU treaty ‘Wiki-style’. Such decentralised movements have achieved astonishing things in science and could in politics.
When Cummings wrote this the referendum was just a promise from David Cameron, who was not expected to win a majority at the 2015 general election to implement it, and a vote to leave would have been regarded by many as an extremely remote possibility. A lot has changed since then, although not in the way the machinery of government works. Whether or not Brexit is an exercise “far beyond” Whitehall’s ability will be something Cummings will be in the process of finding out.
There is a reference to the Cummings paper, which was commissioned by the Business for Britain group, on his blog, but the link to the report no longer works. That’s a shame because it is well worth reading. In it Cummings argues that recent mass immigration and the financial crisis have changed the dynamics of the EU debate, that Cameron’s proposed renegotiation is unlikely to make voters feel more pro-EU, that an out campaign should avoid taking specific positions on many issues and that the best argument for leaving would be “we will save a fortune and we can spend that on the NHS or tax cuts or whatever we want to make Britain stronger”. Most political strategy documents turn out to be unreliable guides to the future but this one is unusual because, five years on, its analysis seems prescient. Which is all the more reason for thinking Cummings might have been right about Whitehall failing to cope with Brexit too ...
UPDATE: The full text of the report is available. Jon Worth has sent me a link.
Hey @AndrewSparrow there's that wonderful thing called the Wayback Machine that helps find you documents when links from the Cummings blog are broken...
— Jon Worth (@jonworth) August 22, 2019
Here's the PDF of the report:https://t.co/BgEzRvpxbN
Updated
Boles' letter to Corbyn highlights four issues dividing MPs opposed to no-deal Brexit
A majority of MPs are opposed to a no-deal Brexit but they can’t agree on what they should do to stop it happening. In her story today about Jeremy Corbyn’s decision to invite the other opposition parties and some Tory rebels to a meeting next week to discuss tactics, my colleague Rowena Mason has a good explanation of what some of the dividing lines are.
There are several separate plans to stop the UK crashing out. They include passing a law to mandate Johnson to extend article 50 to facilitate an election or second referendum; gaining support for revoking article 50 if there is no deal by 31 October; finding a way to bring the withdrawal bill back to the Commons; and defeating Johnson in a no-confidence vote before forming a caretaker government.
However, there are splits within the MPs fighting against a no-deal Brexit concerning the best plan, with some wanting to move straight to a no-confidence vote and others believing a legislative route to prevent a disorderly exit is the best option.
There is no agreement over who should lead a caretaker government – whether Corbyn or a veteran figure such as Ken Clarke or Harriet Harman. Nor is there agreement about what an extension to article 50 would be used for, such as a general election or second referendum.
A number of Conservatives and independent MPs have said they could not support Corbyn as leader of a caretaker government but the Labour leader has insisted he is the only suitable candidate for that role.
Labour insiders said the party was feeling under increasing pressure to bring an early no-confidence vote soon after parliament returns even if it is not winnable yet, as it could show the prime minister just how close he is to losing control of No 10 by pursuing a no-deal Brexit.
Meanwhile, rebel Conservative MPs are still working on legislative ways to mandate an extension to article 50, but some are despairing over whether that is possible and have been returning to examining ways to go back to Theresa May’s deal to test support for it against a no-deal Brexit.
Today Nick Boles, the former Tory-turned-independent MP who was invited to the Corbyn meeting, has released the text of his reply, explaining why he won’t be attending.
Most of the MPs who led the successful attempt to stop No Deal Brexit at the end of March decided to put the interests of the country before the interests of their party, and their own careers. Corbyn and the Labour frontbench need to do the same. pic.twitter.com/Tf66doeMEw
— Nick Boles MP (@NickBoles) August 22, 2019
The letter is interesting because it illustrates very well some of the divisions that Rowena was explaining.
1) No confidence vote? Many opposition MPs, and even some Tories think that the best way to stop Boris Johnson implementing a no-deal Brexit is to bring down his government through a no-confidence vote. But Boles disagrees, and he says he would not support such a vote while it remains possible that Johnson could achieve a Brexit deal.
2) Interim government leader? Corbyn argues that he should lead any interim government set up following a successful no-confidence vote. Boles says that he would never support such a government, and that several other opposition MPs feel the same way.
3) Legislating to require the PM to request an article 50 extension? Earlier this year MPs passed a bill tabled by Yvette Cooper requiring Theresa May as PM to request an article 50 extension. But by that point May was already committed to requesting an extension. Boles wants to use similar legislation for force Johnson to request an extension. But other MPs opposed to no deal have doubts about this strategy. It is not at all clear how binding legislation like this would be, in practical terms, on a PM who did not want comply. (For example, he could request an extension, but only half-heartedly.) And the bill would not compel the EU to agree to offer an extension.
4) An early election? Boles argues that, to prevent the bill requiring him to seek an article 50 extension becoming law, Johnson would try to trigger an early election, to take place shortly after a no-deal Brexit on 31 October. No 10 has reportedly decided that, in those circumstances, it would ignore calls to delay Brexit pending the result of the election. Boles says an early election would only happen if Labour MPs were to vote for it, and he urges Corbyn to rule that out. But Corbyn’s strategy for avoiding a no-deal Brexit depends on holding a no-confidence vote that could result in an early election (if Johnson were to lose the vote, and no alternative government were to get a majority within 14 days.)
Updated
Mujtaba Rahman, the former European commission official who does Brexit analysis for the Eurasia consultancy, has a good take on the exchanges.
So @EmmanuelMacron has taken up & amplified Merkel’s 30 day challenge to @BorisJohnson, arguing UK must produce “visibility” on its alternative ideas for backstop within 30 days. No chance of sig change to WA, but urges @MichelBarnier to use 30 days to look at UK ideas (if any)
— Mujtaba Rahman (@Mij_Europe) August 22, 2019
Macron’s comments will be interpreted by Brexiteers as a “concession”. Sounds more like Berlin & Paris have agreed tactics to evade the blame game trap set by Johnson 2/4
— Mujtaba Rahman (@Mij_Europe) August 22, 2019
OK, they’re saying to Boris, you insist this can be done another way. You have 30 days to produce what you, the British, could not produce in two years. This *IS* a step away from blanket EU refusal to look again at the WA *BUT* it's also a refusal to change it significantly 3/4
— Mujtaba Rahman (@Mij_Europe) August 22, 2019
Otherwise, presser in Elysee courtyard memorable for absurd contrast between a spruce Macron, (dressed for his wedding?) & Johnson looking like he's awoken from sleeping in embassy limousine. Macron grinned throughout like an actor not quite admiring the performance of another
— Mujtaba Rahman (@Mij_Europe) August 22, 2019
Photograph: Thierry Chesnot/Getty Images
Macron/Johnson's statements and Q&A - Summary
Here are the main points from what Emmanuel Macron, the French president, and Boris Johnson said in their opening statements and Q&A.
- Macron said the key features of the withdrawal agreement were “indispensable”. He said:
I would like to say that the key elements of this agreement, including the Irish backstop, are not just technical constraints or legal quibbling, but indeed genuine, indispensable guarantees to preserve stability in Ireland [and] to preserve the integrity of the single market, which is the foundation of the European project.
- He said that any new version of the withdrawal agreement proposed by the UK would have to be very similar to the existing one for it to be acceptable to the EU. He said:
We will not find a new withdrawal agreement within 30 days that will be very different from the existing one.
- He identified the “two goals” of the backstop that were non-negotiable. He said:
The Irish backstop, as we call it, is a point that has been negotiated in the context of the geography of Ireland and the past political situation.
So it is an important element that allows us first of all to guarantee the stability in Ireland and also the integrity of the single market. These are our two goals.
When you talk about flexibility, well let me be very clear with you, these two goals have to be met.
We therefore have to find a solution that guarantees the integrity of the single market.
We have to be able to guarantee to companies, to citizens and consumers in Europe that comply with the rules of the European Union and whatever comes from a market that is not in the European Union is controlled.
- He backed what Angela Merkel said yesterday about the need for the UK to come up with an alternative to the backstop within 30 days. But he played down the idea that this amounted to a new timetable, arguing that in practice it would be impossible to wait until the end of October before deciding if a no-deal Brexit could be avoided. He explained:
What Angela Merkel said yesterday and which is very much in line with the discussions we have had since the very beginning is that we need visibility in 30 days.
I believe that this also matches the goal of Prime Minister Johnson. No one will wait until October 31 to find the right solution.
- He said it would be possible to find a solution by the middle of next month if there was goodwill on both sides.
We should all together be able to find something smart within 30 days if there is goodwill on both sides.
He also said the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, could be involved in finding an answer “without totally reshuffling the withdrawal agreement”.
- He played down the idea that he was the hard man in the Brexit process. He explained:
I’ve always been presented as the hard boy in the group but it’s just that I have always been clear: a choice was made and we cannot just ignore it. We have to implement a decision taken by the British people.
- Johnson said that he had been “powerfully encouraged” by his talks in Berlin last night about the prospects of reaching a deal.
I want to make it absolutely clear to you Emmanuel – to the French people – that of course I want a deal. I think we can get a deal and a good deal. I was powerfully encouraged by our conversations last night in Berlin with our mutual friends. I know that with energy and creativity and application we can find a way forward for all our businesses and our citizens.
He also said it was “very interesting to hear some of the positive noises that we’re now hearing about the ways that [replacing the backstop] can be done”.
Updated
And this what some journalists and commentators are saying about the Q&A.
From AFP’s Adam Plowright
Macron backs another month of Brexit talks about the Irish border, knowing well that no solution will be found. Face-saving. Same approach taken by Merkel. All about trying to avoid blame for 'no deal' if it comes to pass
— Adam Plowright (@ADAMPLOW) August 22, 2019
From the Sun’s Tom Newton Dunn
Macron meets Johnson in Paris: Macron calls the backstop "not just legal quibbling" but "genuine, indispensable guarantees". Not a great start.
— Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) August 22, 2019
But will you cut Boris some slack to come up with an alternative, like Merkel did? Macron reluctantly agrees: "We need visibility in 30 days. Nobody will wait to October 31 to find the right solution".
— Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) August 22, 2019
And the blame game continues. Macron's final point was to stick any No Deal on Boris. If no new solution is possible, PM will have to make "a political decision". Adds: "It will not be our decision".
— Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) August 22, 2019
From my colleague Dan Sabbagh
Macron plays along with Johnson's 30 day Brexit deadline, for diplomatic reasons, but then adds there is very little chance of renegotiating the withdrawal agreement. Msg is clear from France: we want to be seen to have given you one last chance but....
— Dan Sabbagh (@dansabbagh) August 22, 2019
From Barron’s Group’s Pierre Briançon
Shorter Macron-Bojo presser: nothing has moved, but let's keep talking anyway. #Brexit
— Pierre Briançon (@pierrebri) August 22, 2019
From the Institute for Government’s Georgina Wright
7. My take on Macron:
— Georgina Wright (@GeorginaEWright) August 22, 2019
- Repeats EU stance: open to further talks but UK must put fwd workable alternatives that solve border & protect SM
- Says time is short: cautions that WA is unlikely to fundamentally change
- Reminds that EU Commission who negotiates, not EU leaders. END.
Updated
Macron/Johnson Q&A - Snap verdict
Here we go again; just as when Boris Johnson met Angela Merkel in Berlin last night, his opening public exchanges with Emmanuel Macron were warm – and considerably friendlier than some of their comments about each other in the past (see 9.25am) – but there was nothing in what Macron said to suggest that a solution to the backstop quandary is any closer than it has been for months. Macron suggested that he was unhappy about being cast as the “hard man” in the process. But he was also very clear that a mechanism was needed to protect the Northern Ireland peace process and the integrity of the single market, and he said any version of the withdrawal agreement drawn up by Johnson within the next 30 days that might be acceptable to the EU would be much the same as the one already on the table. There are polite ways of saying no, and harsh ways of saying no, and Merkel and Macron (in their public remarks, at least) have been charm personified. But four weeks ago Johnson was telling Merkel and Macron that the backstop would have go for a Brexit deal to be possible. This week, they are telling him, that on the fundamentals of what the backstop is all about, they are not willing to budge. For obvious reasons, Johnson is keen to put a positive gloss on all of this, telling journalists at the Q&A that he came away from Berlin “powerfully encouraged”. But, as students of Johnson’s journalistic career know all too well, his analysis of developments in the EU has never been noted for its accuracy ...
Updated
Macron says there will be no new Brexit withdrawal agreement within 30 days
Macron says Angela Merkel said yesterday there would have to be “visibility” within 30 days as to what an alternative to the backstop might look like. People would not wait until 31 October for a solution, he says.
He says Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, will be involved in talks.
He says, if there is goodwill on both sides, there could be a solution.
He says he is presented as the hard man in the negotiations. But he wants a solution. However, he has been clear that we will not find a new withdrawal agreement within 30 days that will be very different to the existing one.
He says the agreement could be amended, though.
Johnson says he admires Merkel’s “can do” spirit.
He says he thinks solutions to the backstop problem are available.
He repeats the point about how the UK will not impose checks at the border.
Q: What is the alternative to the backstop?
Johnson says the reporter should read “an excellent paper” produced by Greg Hands and other MPs proposing alternatives. (That is a reference to the Alternative Arrangements Commission report.)
Johnson ends by saying: “Where there’s a will, there’s a way.”
And that’s it.
Updated
Macron/Johnson's Q&A
Q: Isn’t a no-deal Brexit a bit of a con?
Johnson says a great deal of work has already been done to ensure that the transition on 31 October will be as smooth as it can be. He says he wants to ensure all the remaining necessary work gets done before the end of October.
Q: Angela Merkel showed some flexibility in Berlin last night. Shouldn’t you too?
Macron says the Irish backstop has been negotiated, and it is an important element that guarantees stability in Ireland and the integrity of the single market. As for flexibility, these two goals must be met. He says the EU has to guarantee to its citizens that its market will be controlled.
Johnson intervenes. He says under no circumstances will the UK government impose checks at the border. He understands the EU desire to protect the integrity of the single market. But he thinks that can be protected, while allowing the UK to leave.
Boris Johnson starts with Brexit. He says he wants to make it clear that he wants a deal, and he thinks he can get a deal.
He says he was “powerfully encouraged” by his talks with Angela Merkel last night.
But it is vital, if you have a referendum, that you do what the voters voted for. He says the UK will come out with a deal or without one.
He says the UK-French relationship is extraordinary. Their troops are side by side in countries like Mali and Estonia. And it was the British and French, together with the Americans, who responded when President Assad used chemical weapons in Syria.
He says the UK and France will work hand in glove at the G7 on issues like climate change and the environment.
Whatever happens with Brexit, it is their joint ambition to deepen the UK/French relationship.
He says French buses run on London roads. And TGV, the French trains, run on steel made in the UK.
And London is one of the cities with the biggest French populations on earth, he says.
Let’s get Brexit done, and let’s get it done “sensibly and pragmatically”, he says.
Updated
Emmanuel Macron starts.
He says he is pleased to welcome Boris Johnson to Paris. But they have spoken on the phone already.
He says the relationship between the two countries is central and immutable.
He says it’s a privileged relationship. The two countries have a long history. They have treaties that go beyond the EU.
He says the engagement of both countries has always been constant.
He says, inevitably, they will talk about Brexit. He says Johnson knows his position. He says he regrets the choice by the UK to leave. If he had been a British voter, he would have voted to stay.
But the decision must be implemented, he says.
He says he wants to ensure the EU is protected.
The EU has negotiated an agreement with the UK. It is not up to an one EU country to renegotiate it. The key elements are indispensable. It is about preserving peace in Northern Ireland, and about preserving the integrity of the single market.
He says, as a friend and ally of the UK, it is up to the UK alone to decide its destiny.
France is preparing for all eventualities, he says.
He says, no matter what, the future of the UK cannot but be European.
Our geography speaks by itself.
Macron ends by saying again how pleased he is to welcome Johnson.
Updated
Boris Johnson has arrived.
Emmanuel Macron is on the steps of the Élysée waiting for Boris Johnson to arrive.
Updated
Here is the scene outside the Élysée Palace.
Boris Johnson and Emmanuel Macron are expected to take two questions – one from a French journalist and one from a British journalist.
Updated
Boris Johnson is due to arrive at the Élysée Palace shortly.
There is a live feed at the top of this blog.
During the Tory leadership contest Boris Johnson claimed (implausibly) that the chances of a no-deal Brexit were a million to one. Subsequently he has admitted it is more likely than that, but he has not gone as far as David Davis, the former Brexit secretary, who told the Today programme this morning that he thought the odds on that outcome were now “50/50”. It was now “a high probability”, Davis said.
But Davis also insisted that the dangers of a no-deal Brexit had been overblown. Dismissing the claims in the Operation Yellowhammer document leaked at the weekend as “rubbish”, Davis said:
I think there will be some turbulence. There will be some bumpiness in terms of cross-border traffic and so on.
When it was put to him that in the past he has said a no-deal Brexit would lead to nothing that a reasonably competent government would not be able to handle, he replied: “That’s precisely what I think.”
The recently-appointed Scottish secretary, Alister Jack, has ignited a furious row with the Scottish National party after claiming it was no different from other nationalist movements as it “needs an enemy to thrive”.
In an article for the Times (paywall), his first newspaper opinion piece since being appointed by Boris Johnson, Jack wrote:
Scottish nationalists like to claim that theirs is a different kind of nationalism, somehow uniquely benign. I’m sorry but I’m not sure I can spot the difference. Like nationalist movements the world over, it requires an enemy to make it thrive. It needs an ‘other’ to rail against.
Jack, a staunch Brexiteer, accused Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP of inventing grievances; using “the Westminster system” as an insult coded to attack the UK as a whole; and inventing a “fiction” that devolution no longer works.
He said many fiercely proud Scots were comfortable being Scottish and British. Acknowledging the Brexit crisis was putting the union under strain, he blamed Sturgeon using “anger, bitterness and resentment” over Brexit to promote independence.
Ian Blackford, the SNP’s Westminster leader, called on Jack to withdraw the piece on Twitter.
Wow, I am surprised the secretary of state has sunk to this level. He should withdraw this article and apologise. Lets have an informed debate of Scotland as an independent country and yes unionists should speak of their vision. This is not it. It lacks dignity. https://t.co/1gY2N8vUJG
— Ian Blackford (@IanBlackfordMP) August 22, 2019
Some SNP figures worry about the labelling. Humza Yousaf, Holyrood’s most successful non-white MSP, and now the SNP’s justice secretary, said last week at an Edinburgh fringe event he disliked the “national” in its name.
I do struggle with it, because people do associate it with all the various elements of nationalism that exist. [I] think people understand that we are an open and inclusive party. But do I think that the name can present us with some challenges? For sure.
Libby Brooks, the Guardian’s Scotland correspondent, said Sturgeon had addressed this point at another Fringe event the previous day. In 2017, Sturgeon said she would prefer another one but last week claimed to be “100% comfortable” with it. Other nationalist parties, she said, were not seeking independence like hers but were nationalist in an exclusive, xenophobic sense. She said:
Scottish independence is not just at the other end of the spectrum of that, but on another spectrum altogether. The SNP today is and I think I can say it without fear of justifiable contradiction, the most pro-immigration party in the UK which is not what you would expect of a nationalist party, so my nationalism is rooted in a desire to make the country I live in as good as it can be.
Updated
Last night I posted a summary of the immediate media reaction to the Angela Merkel/Boris Johnson press conference here. The pro-Brexit papers in the UK have put a positive gloss on what happened, with the Sun story, under the headline “We can Merk it out”, saying that Johnson was delighted with the outcome, and the Daily Mail, the Daily Telegraph and the Daily Express all splashing on stories implying the prospect of a no-deal Brexit has been reduced.
Thursday's Mail: "Can we do it? Ja, we can!" #bbcpapers #tomorrowspaperstoday (via @AllieHBNews) pic.twitter.com/xqzGXAvC2R
— BBC News (UK) (@BBCNews) August 21, 2019
Thursday's Telegraph: "30 days to ditch the backstop" #bbcpapers #tomorrowspaperstoday (via @AllieHBNews) pic.twitter.com/Qm5BdcLjlh
— BBC News (UK) (@BBCNews) August 21, 2019
Thursday's Express: "30 days to do a deal" #bbcpapers #tomorrowspaperstoday (via @AllieHBNews) pic.twitter.com/CwvmN1Z2is
— BBC News (UK) (@BBCNews) August 21, 2019
But informed commentators are not so sure. Here is another round-up of what journalists and commentators have been saying about the significance of what was said at the Berlin press conference after they’ve had a bit of time to mull it over.
From the Guardian’s Philip Oltermann
A few hours on from the Merkel-Johnson press conference, I am more and more struck by how quick he was to concede the onus is on UK to come up with a solution within a month. She said 30 days were a possibility, he said it's a "timetable". A sign of an inexperienced negotiator? pic.twitter.com/ZytRsjlYkl
— Philip Oltermann (@philipoltermann) August 22, 2019
From Politico Europe’s Matthew Karnitschnig
Nice rhetorical sleight of hand by Merkel here: offer something that has always been on the table, whike making it look a concession. She’s clearly preparing for the “we did everything we could” moment on Nov. 1. https://t.co/873cW5nSl6
— Matthew Karnitschnig (@MKarnitschnig) August 22, 2019
From ITV’s Robert Peston
Striking that Merkel has pulled rug from under @PhilipHammondUK, the Gaukeward Squad and much of anti-no-deal posse by saying there is negotiation to be had in next 30 days on how to eliminate backstop. No wonder @BorisJohnson looks happy https://t.co/WVSlhv3ZZo
— Robert Peston (@Peston) August 21, 2019
From Berlin Policy Journal’s Henning Hoff
Huge misreading: Merkel isn’t negotiating, it’s Barnier/Brussels. Chancellor only polite: Who’s she to exclude possibility that genius new PM could find plausible alternative to backstop w/in 30 days? After all, she’s not in the unicorn hunting business @Peston @PhilipHammondUK https://t.co/sPTMQ7wlid
— Henning Hoff (@HoffHenning) August 22, 2019
From the Economist’s Sophie Pedder
Pre Johnson’s lunch in Paris today, worth recalling that a) Paris + Berlin will have carefully coordinated their positions on not renegotiating Brexit WA b) UK media’s spotting of “glimmers of hope” in Berlin consistently prove unfounded. Merkel + Macron differ in tone not policy
— Sophie Pedder (@PedderSophie) August 22, 2019
From Sky’s Lewis Goodall
Think Merkel comments on 30 days are being overinterpreted. Had WA been signed, we'd be in early stages of trying to find solution to border so backstop would never be used. EU has always said find a solution,we'll work with it. That's all she said yesterday. Nothing has changed.
— Lewis Goodall (@lewis_goodall) August 22, 2019
From my colleague Jennifer Rankin
If a backstop alternative was to appear in 30 days - I’m a sceptic - hard to see that UK parliament would have time to ratify deal by 31 Oct, so extension wd be needed.
— Jennifer Rankin (@JenniferMerode) August 21, 2019
Above all, don’t think 30 days moves things on. Sounds like Merkel being Merkel. EU position unchanged.
From the Telegraph’s Peter Foster
This. Merkel always clear there are alternative solutions - if U.K., say, wants to be aligned, or accept NI-specific alignment. But not fantasy solutions. Not in 30 days. Or 300. Or 3,000. It needs to work. Trade border in Ireland works for SM integrity. Just not for IE/GFA. /1 https://t.co/oSEXvrSocp
— Peter Foster (@pmdfoster) August 21, 2019
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Macron warns Boris Johnson Brexit could turn UK into vassal state of US before they meet in Paris
Boris Johnson received a more cordial welcome than he might have expected last night when he met the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, in Berlin on his first trip abroad as PM. But today he is in Paris for lunch with the French president, Emmanuel Macron, and their exchanges might be considerably more prickly. Macron has repeatedly accused the leave campaign, that Johnson led, of lying to the British public, of all the main EU leaders he has been least willing to make concessions to the UK over Brexit, and yesterday, in a two-and-a-half hour briefing with journalists (not mainly about Johnson – the UK is not that important to France – it was a marathon event because Macron is hosting the G7 summit at the weekend) Macron delivered two very unpalatable messages for his British counterpart.
- Macron said that renegotiating the EU withdrawal agreement was “not an option”. Johnson says, without a renegotiation, there will be no Brexit deal.
- Macron suggested that Brexit would stop the UK being a great power. This was particularly provocative because Johnson claims that Brexit will enhance the UK’s independence and prestige. But Macron argued that Brexit would leave the UK dependent on the US. He said:
The British are attached to being a great power, a member of the security council. The point can’t be to exit Europe and say ‘we’ll be stronger’, before in the end, becoming the junior partner of the United States, which are acting more and more hegemonically.
In a particularly neat twist, using the language of Brexiters to contest one of the main claims of the Brexit project, Macron even suggested that outside the EU, instead of being released from European vassalage, Britain would end up a vassal state of the US.
Can the cost for Britain of a hard Brexit – because Britain will be the main victim – be offset by the United States of America? No.
And even if it were a strategic choice it would be at the cost of a historic vassalisation of Britain. I don’t think this is what Boris Johnson wants. I don’t think it is what the British people want. I don’t think it’s the will of the British people … to become the junior partner of the US.
There are more accounts of what Macron said at his briefing at the Guardian, at HuffPost, at Politico Europe and at Reuters.
My colleague Angelique Chrisafis has written a preview of the Macron/Johnson meeting which has some very good background on their relationship. Here is an extract.
Johnson began pinpointing France as a problem long before he became PM. While being filmed for a documentary last year when he was foreign secretary, he said of France: “Why are they trying to shaft us?” He called France “naughty children” on the issue of Europe. He later denied he had called the French “turds” over Brexit.
Johnson is well known in Paris for what the local media call his “French-bashing” for a domestic audience, notably as London mayor when he said his city’s bike scheme was a Rolls-Royce to Paris’s Citroën 2CV. He said the Socialist government at the time, with its proposed high tax rate on the very rich, had been “captured by sans-culottes” running a “tyranny” of the like not seen since the French Revolution.
“To be popular in the UK, do you always have to criticise the French?” one French interviewer asked him as mayor. “No, not at all,” he replied, saying he loved France.
And here is her full article.
Johnson is due to meet Macron at 12pm UK time. They are not due to hold a press conference, but both leaders are expected to make short statements to the media.
Otherwise the diary is relatively light today. At 9.30am the Office for National Statistics is publishing migration figures, and at some point Liz Truss, the international trade secretary, is chairing the first meeting of the Freeports advisory panel.
As usual, I will be covering breaking political news as it happens, as well as bringing you the best reaction, comment and analysis from the web. I plan to publish a summary when I wrap up.
You can read all the latest Guardian politics articles here. Here is the Politico Europe roundup of this morning’s political news. And here is the PoliticsHome list of today’s top 10 must-reads.
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