National leader Christopher Luxon’s first conference atop the party comes as the shine of his early months in the role wears off, with some pressure to show he is up to the job, Sam Sachdeva writes
When Christopher Luxon takes to the stage of Te Pae this weekend for the National Party's annual conference, he may take inspiration from his surroundings.
Christchurch's new convention centre, a pet project of the previous National government which opened at the end of last year, is polarising within the Garden City but serves as an example of the green shoots that can emerge after a long and painful rebuild.
The choice of venue may come as a relief for Gerry Brownlee, who in 2019 was forced to break a self-imposed boycott of the Christchurch Town Hall when National hosted that year’s conference in the auditorium.
The location is also a chance for Luxon to talk up his life story, having been born in Christchurch, then educated at Christchurch Boys’ High School and the University of Canterbury (it seems safe to assume his self-described “loyal” Crusaders fandom will come up at some point).
Those biographical details are important for a politician who is still an unknown quantity to some New Zealanders, even if it seems like he has been atop the National Party for much longer than eight months.
In last month’s Taxpayer’s Union-Curia poll (a copy of which was obtained by Newsroom), more than a third of those surveyed had neither a favourable or unfavourable view of Luxon’s performance, compared with just 18 percent for Jacinda Ardern and 20 percent for ACT leader David Seymour.
Public awareness will ramp up as next year’s election draws closer, but the National leader’s team will surely want to get his story out to undecided voters sooner rather than later.
Not all publicity is good publicity, however, as Luxon has found after a torrid few weeks.
Taken individually, none of these flubs are damning - but cumulatively, they feel like unhelpful sloppiness from an inexperienced politician, which Luxon indeed is.
The fallout from the US Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v Wade in June wasn’t within his control, but the repeated reminders of Luxon’s anti-abortion beliefs have been far from helpful for his public image, even with his insistence he does not intend to relitigate the law in New Zealand.
His decision to label New Zealand businesses as “getting soft” during a July speech in London led to blowback from the sector which could have been avoided with more judicious phrasing, while the UK Conservative leadership turmoil impeded his efforts for some more favourable photo opportunities.
Then there is the gift that keeps on giving: the Te Puke to-do, where a video of Luxon’s visit to the regional town was posted on his social media during his family vacation in Hawaii, leading to accusations he was deceiving the public regarding his whereabouts.
Taken individually, none of these flubs are damning - but cumulatively, they feel like unhelpful sloppiness from an inexperienced politician, which Luxon indeed is.
The confusion over whether National is, or in’t, scrapping its policy to index tax brackets to inflation also seems like a molehill made into a mountain through unnecessarily poor communication within the party and with the public.
Luxon does not come off well in comparison to Nicola Willis and Chris Bishop, both key members of his team who are more polished thanks to their experience behind the scenes as former staffers as well as in the political arena.
NZ Herald senior political reporter Thomas Coughlan suggested Willis’ strong performances in place of Luxon over the parliamentary recess “might cause some caucus members to consider whether National’s leadership ticket is in the right order”, while it was Bishop who took the counterattack to Labour over the alleged flip-flop on tax policy.
At the same time, there are signs that the new leader has made a difference to party morale after several years of dysfunction and infighting.
National collected roughly $240,000 in big-money donations over the course of 2021, but Luxon’s ascent to the leadership - along with the efforts of former deputy leader Paula Bennett - have seen more than $2.1 million declared in 2022.
In an April fundraising email to Labour supporters, the party’s general secretary Rob Salmond described the influx of cash to National as “worrying” - a bid to spur a monetary response from members, of course, but also a sign Salmond and the wider party are wary of a more credible, revitalised opposition.
Novelty not enough
At a structural level, Peter Goodfellow’s departure as National Party president is also striking after more than 13 years in the position and multiple stymied efforts to move him on.
Goodfellow’s decision to announce his retirement only after nominations for board vacancies had closed attracted the ire of some National supporters, including former MP Maurice Williamson, and any talk of a clean slate seems premature.
Board member Sylvia Wood seems the frontrunner to succeed Goodfellow, with a background in employment relations and HR potentially appealing to a party that has suffered from its fair share of cultural deficiencies.
Wood also appears close to the outgoing president, with Politik reporting her organisation of a four-person ticket in 2021 board elections played a critical role in holding off efforts to oust the incumbent.
A new face will still help Luxon to further make the case he represents a changing of the guard after years in the wilderness.
But novelty alone is not enough, and the success - or failure - of the weekend’s conference could prove pivotal in his electoral fate.
