Johnny Dawkins came close to the unthinkable two years ago in Columbia, coming within a fingertip of becoming the first of Mike Krzyzewski’s former players to defeat their Duke mentor in what would have been one of the greatest upsets in NCAA tournament history.
Jeff Capel did the deed Tuesday night, and not a soul was surprised. Zion Williamson and RJ Barrett are long gone from Duke, and while their stratospheric talent would be impossible to replace, there haven’t been players of their caliber in the next two freshman classes, at Duke or anywhere else. Kentucky, notably, is in a similar fix.
North Carolina, meanwhile, has more predictable problems: As good as UNC’s forwards are, teams with two freshmen guards that don’t shoot very well tend to struggle in any era, but especially in today’s game. The Tar Heels are going through the same growing pains that a team like -- to pick one totally at random -- Clemson has been going through for a couple years. The Tigers, an ACC title contender, are reaping the rewards now. UNC, not currently an ACC title contender, isn’t there yet.
If all of this wasn’t clear on Monday when neither team was in the Top 25 for the first time since Michael Jordan was a sophomore, it was certainly clear Tuesday when Duke fell to 3-2 in the ACC with the loss in Pittsburgh. North Carolina was 3-3 going into Wednesday’s game against Wake Forest. Neither is a lock for the NCAA tournament at this point.
They are no longer the elite. They are in the middle of the middle of the pack.
Duke, North Carolina and, since 2014, Virginia have had a virtual monopoly on the No. 1 seed in the ACC tournament for 17 years. Only Miami in 2013 and Florida State last season have been able to crack their grip (Maryland, in 2010, was tied with Duke in the standings but lost the tiebreaker). They have been the power brokers in this conference for a generation, and two-thirds of them have been toppled. Perhaps only for a season or two, but nevertheless.
Duke and UNC aren’t out of it yet, but the sheen of invincibility is long gone. For the second straight year, it’s anyone’s ACC to win. And given the issues inherent in trying to play a conference tournament in the age of COVID -- why, it’s fair to ask, even bother? -- it’s entirely possible the team atop the regular-season standings will once again be crowned the official champion, as the Seminoles were in an impromptu ceremony in a near-empty Greensboro Coliseum last March.
Virginia is the leader by default more than anything, the same team that lost to San Francisco and despite a 5-0 record in the ACC has exactly one quality win on its record and the meat of its schedule still ahead.
For a moment or two, it looked like Clemson might be the front-runner, at least until Virginia dropped 85 on the Tigers. Florida State can look unbeatable at times but also lost to Clemson and UCF. Virginia Tech -- with wins over Duke and Villanova -- has as good a claim as anyone, albeit certainly with a lot still to prove. N.C. State missed its chance to take control, but isn’t out of it yet. Why not Louisville? Why not … Pittsburgh?
All of these programs that have labored in the shadow of the Big Blues for decades -- most often because of their own incompetence, but still -- are having their moment now. The powerhouses have been defanged. Leonard Hamilton and the Seminoles took advantage last year. Can someone else this year?
In some ways if not all, this is being mirrored nationally. In Duke’s case specifically, it’s as much a function of the national talent pool as anything on campus; last year’s freshman class wasn’t much by comparison to its predecessors. This year’s class is even less so, leaving teams that reload annually like Duke and Kentucky in historically bad shape and opening the door to teams like Dayton and San Diego State a year ago and Houston and Creighton this season.
If the talent climate is going to favor teams that spend years developing talent over those that recruit like free agency, it’s not a huge surprise to see Iowa and Wisconsin making a jump into the true elite instead of the usual suspects. Texas was building toward this season with one very good freshman and a bunch of juniors and seniors and it couldn’t have worked any better for Shaka Smart.
Gonzaga and Villanova typically tread a nice balance between now and later and are, not surprisingly, thriving as well; normally, you’d throw UNC in that group but breaking in two (very talented) freshmen in the backcourt is never easy. Maybe if someone like Leaky Black had grown into a superstar, or Anthony Harris were fully healthy, it wouldn’t be as much of an issue.
Either way, Duke and North Carolina have towered over the ACC for generations, casting shadows as long as any in the entire world of basketball. They do not at this moment. There’s a power vacuum at the top. Teams that haven’t been in the conversation for years have a chance to fill it.
