WASHINGTON _ There is talent. And skill. And coaching. And preparation. And effort. All of that goes into a basketball game, the wide range of finite variables in the equation of victory and defeat.
Some of that can be controlled, known, analyzed, concentrated, with better players and better coaching, particularly in the college game, where coaches choose their players and their systems, defining the ground rules themselves.
But not all of it can.
Even at the highest levels, even for the winningest coach, the best player, the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament, there's a point where even that combination of strengths must cede all control to fate _ or, as Mike Krzyzewski would often have it, the higher powers of the basketball gods.
"Whatever happens then, I'm OK _ I accept the result," Krzyzewski said Saturday. "And it's our result. And I'd say I've been that way for a pretty long time now because I've had players who can do that."
Duke has in the past two games let the ball bounce on the rim like Sky Masterton slinging craps for sinners' souls, elimination hanging in the balance.
The Blue Devils remain alive, Michigan State standing between them and the Final Four on Sunday, and while it remains open for eternal debate whether it is indeed better to be lucky or good, there is no epistemological uncertainty that the best combination is to be both.
And Duke may indeed be both.
That Duke is good is beyond a doubt at this point in the season, thanks to the NBA-bound quartet led by presumptive top-two picks Zion Williamson and RJ Barrett. Their traveling road show has thrilled audiences (and scouts) all season, at least when healthy.
Despite that talent, Duke unquestionably has deep and abiding flaws, from chronic long-range misfires to occasional defensive panics. None of that has yet caught up with Duke in the postseason, but it's been close.
Millimeters close. Twice.
"The basketball gods have been on our side, if you will, the past couple weeks," Duke forward Javin DeLaurier said. "But we've put ourselves in good positions for them to look upon us favorably."
Enter the luck: the random bounce of a pebbled leather ball on a powder-coated metal rim.
In consecutive games, Duke has staved off elimination by the finest of margins, as Aubrey Dawkins' tip caromed out for Central Florida, as Virginia Tech's Ahmad Hill just barely rushed his tip-in attempt at the buzzer.
Those shots could just as easily have gone in as out _ as Duke knows all too well, its season cut short by an equal measure of bad luck only second short of the Final Four at this same point a year ago when Grayson Allen saw his layup that would have beaten Kansas at the buzzer take the same cruel trajectory.
But that's how the ball bounces, to coin a phrase, and historically speaking, almost any championship run _ if that is indeed in the cards for Duke _ includes a narrow escape along the way. Two is pushing it already. Three could be a bridge too far.
(Even Krzyzewski's 11-1 record against Tom Izzo has a tinge of good fortune to it; the probability of things turning out that way between two power programs, even with Duke running generally ahead over the past 24 years, is small.)
Even if it all points in the direction that Duke may be some sort of team of destiny, at some point, Duke is still going to need to decisively outplay someone, instead of leaving its fate in the hands of fate. And against a team as talented and experienced as Michigan State, the best team Duke has seen since Charlotte, luck may not be enough.
At some point in this tournament, to get where it wants to be, Duke is going to have to take control of its own fate. At least as much as it can.
