Opposing coalitions in Kerala view the roll-out of the results of the local body elections on Wednesday as a relatively dependable political bellwether of the State’s voting behaviour ahead of the Assembly elections in 2021.
The results would test the Left Democratic Front (LDF) claim that it would coast to victory despite the myriad scandals that bedevilled the Pinarayi Vijayan government since the gold smuggling case broke in July.
The ruling front banked heavily on the social security benefits doled out to a large section of the population and creation of health and education infrastructure to help maintain its hold on power.
The elections, marked by an electioneering period of bitter recriminations, were held in the middle of a crippling pandemic that however had scant effect on the polling percentage.
The Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) and the Bharathiya Janata Party (BJP) led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) felt the LSGIs were a verifiable microcosm of Kerala and a reversal of the fortunes of the LDF at the hustings would echo strongly in the Assembly elections next year.
The NDA perceived that the “wrongdoings” of the government and a “weakened” UDF had accorded the coalition an unprecedented opportunity to register emphatic wins in the LSGI polls.
In 2015, the LDF and UDF had split the 15 district panchayats almost evenly among them with the ruling coalition holding to an extra one. The LDF won in 45 municipalities and UDF in 40 that year.
A BJP surge, if at all, in keenly contested Thiruvananthapuram and Thrissur Municipal Corporations could arguably signal a remarkable inversion of traditional coalition politics in Kerala.
The UDF felt that the “anti-government sentiment” would work to its advantage and not that of the NDA given its brand of majoritarian politics. The hoped to cement its victory in Kannur and hold on to the Kochi Corporation.
The polls were no forthright triangular electoral battle. National and State politics had dominated electioneering alongside provincial matters and livelihood issues.
Political realignments saw the coalitions fighting on new battle lines while striving to defend traditional strongholds. Rumours of cross-voting also vexed the alliances equally on the eve of the counting day.
