After the election of the Liberal Democratic Party president and the convening of an extraordinary Diet session, a House of Representatives election is now widely expected to be held in early to mid-November. This would be the first time under the current Constitution that a lower house election will be held after the expiration of the term of office of lower house members, set for Oct. 21.
After a new president is elected in the LDP presidential election to be held on Sept. 29, an extraordinary Diet session is expected to be convened in early October. After the Diet elects a new prime minister, a new cabinet is expected to be formed. Even if the House of Representatives is dissolved immediately after the new prime minister's election, the vote in the lower house election is likely to be held no earlier than Sunday, Nov. 7, taking into account the time needed to prepare and the fact that an election must be held within 40 days after the Diet is dissolved.
There would still be a possibility that the vote could be held on Sunday, Oct. 31, but there would be little wiggle room in the schedule. If the new prime minister waited until the latest possible day to dissolves the Diet, the vote could be delayed until Sunday, Nov. 28, still within the 40 days allowed under the Public Offices Election Law.
But it is also possible that the new prime minister will not dissolve the House of Representatives at all, but will instead hold an election after allowing its members' term of office to expire. The Public Offices Election Law stipulates that the election after the expiration of the term of office shall be scheduled for a date from 24 to 30 days after the day following the closing of the Diet.
If the Diet adjourns in early October, there is still a possibility that the vote will be held on Oct. 31, but if the new prime minister faces representatives' questions, the vote is likely to be held on Nov. 7. If Diet adjourns on Oct. 21, the day the term of office expires, the vote would be held on Sunday, Nov. 14.
A summit of the Group of 20 is scheduled to be held in Rome on Oct. 30-31, and some believe that this event would also make it difficult to hold the lower house election on Oct. 31.
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