Australian universities are hoping the return of international students and face-to-face learning will help the decimated sector “snap back” from Covid restrictions, but some teachers are warning the industry is in a perilous position.
Since the pandemic, the number of international student visa holders has fallen by 205,854 – or 33.5% – with the sector losing at least $1.8bn in revenue in the first year alone, according to Universities Australia.
The flow-on effects have been massive. By last September, 20% of tertiary workers – approximately 40,000 – had lost their jobs, according to research from the Australia Institute.
Across 2021, at least 2,100 courses were cut around the country, figures from the National Tertiary Education Union show.
Alison Barnes, the president of the NTEU, said the number of lost courses could be much larger as there is no national database showing what is on offer.
“It might be a drop in the ocean in regards to what’s been cut,” Barnes said. “None of this stuff is particularly transparent and that’s not a good thing.
“When they closed the border, universities felt that impact very swiftly and very hard.”
The sector is bracing for more cuts over the next two years after last year’s federal budget reduced funding for universities by nearly 10% over three years and the $1bn emergency research grant was discontinued.
Barnes said this will not only impact the quality of education students receive but also Australia’s research capabilities.
“Pulling resources from our institutions and universities, you can look at the impact now, but what worries me is what it means for society five years from now, 10 years from now,” she said.
“It doesn’t end for universities. The problems created by Covid-19 and the federal government’s neglect of the sector will carry on for many years to come.”
With the borders now open, universities are hoping the 131,000 international students who have been stuck overseas will return to complete their studies and Australia will resume its place as a world leader in tertiary education.
The full picture for enrolment and commencement numbers for both international and domestic students will not be known until March, but the minister for immigration, Alex Hawke, announced on 18 January that 43,300 international students had already returned to Australia.
Peter Hurley, an education policy expert at Victoria University’s Mitchell Institute, said all eyes would be on the number of international students.
“Are they coming back? That’s the question everyone wants to know, at what rate they come is really important. We’ll get the first indication in a month or two,” Hurley said.
He said international students have been the cornerstone of Australia’s higher education policy for the last 30 years, used to supplement the sector’s income.
“When it comes to international students, the reason people focus on them so much is they are so important to the university sector and the way it resources itself.
“There’s no other way to fill the gap.”
Hurley said the quality of education on offer at Australian universities had deteriorated during the pandemic, according to domestic students.
This sentiment was echoed by one arts student from Victoria who said the inability to discuss and debate in groups had impacted their Masters degree.
“It’s become a very individualised experience,” they said.
Julie Kimber, a historian and union delegate at Swinburne University, likens working in academia right now to being at the Ford factory during the last days of car manufacturing in Australia.
“I sometimes think we’re looking down the barrel,” she said. “If we’re going to online learning, what differentiates Australian unis from others around the world?
“If I could do a course at the London School of Economics for the same or less money, I know where I would go.”
She personally knows 12 people who have lost their jobs in the last year and said that while academics cared deeply about their students and research, morale was low across the workforce.
“Universities are nothing like they were when it started. They’ve been corporatising for decades but we’re now reaching a stage where the sector bears little relationship to its purpose,” she said.
In August last year a report produced by EY after interviewing senior industry figures predicted the number of international students in Australia would never return to its 2019 levels.
Instead, it predicted a total revenue loss of $6bn by 2030. The shortfall could force the closure or merger of smaller institutions and would mean 50% of non-research staff would be out of work, the report said.
EY’s global head of education, Catherine Friday, said the pandemic had “exposed the overreliance on on-campus learning and international students in Australia’s higher education system”.
“There is so much financial strain in the sector right now and such uncertainty about ongoing income and revenue streams that it’s reasonable to suspect that there might be university closures or some sort of merger activity in the market,” she said.
Not all of the sector agrees with this outlook.
Catriona Jackson, the chief executive of Universities Australia, said Australian universities still offer a world-class experience and were ready to bounce back from the challenges.
“Universities are preparing, with optimism, for a safe return to lively campus life, especially as we welcome back considerable numbers of local but also international students – many of whom have been waiting for up to two years to return,” she said.
While it would take time, Australian universities offered a world-class experience – one that would continue to lure back students from overseas, she said.
“We have reached a milestone with the reopening of our borders, but the sector will take time to recover.
“We attract scholars from more than 140 countries,” Jackson said, “and the fundamental appeal of an Australian education remain as strong as ever: excellent universities, high vaccination rates and an enviable lifestyle.”
.png?w=600)
