The citizenship announcement in the late hours of Friday night left some New Zealand officials with the impression the Australian government was trying to quietly bury it. Now it has finally been put to rest, New Zealand can focus its diplomatic energy elsewhere, writes political editor Jo Moir.
Plans in Australia to drop the news late on Friday night that it was finally sorting out citizenship hurdles for Kiwis living across the ditch came as a surprise to New Zealand officials.
The Australian Government's 10.30pm announcement (12.30am Saturday NZT) was in the dead of night and 12 hours ahead of Prime Minister Chris Hipkins even boarding his plane to Brisbane.
Officials from the Prime Minister’s office and the travelling delegation were under the impression citizenship changes would be announced in Brisbane at the weekend.
READ MORE: * The days of politely begging for Kiwi rights in Oz are over * Hipkins' energy - and inexperience - on display in Australia
Anthony Albanese and Chris Hipkins were scheduled to meet, and the expectation was that they would hold a joint event and press conference to acknowledge and respond to the news.
It’s understood that plans changed late in the piece - the Australian Government had initially wanted to make the announcement as close to Anzac Day on Tuesday as possible, but logistics and travel arrangements made that too difficult.
There is speculation Albanese’s Government wanted to bury the news, given some of his own citizens may not look fondly on it.
Some news outlets are already selling it as Kiwi criminals getting a better deal in Australia.
It’s expected more criticism will come Albanese’s way when Australians connect the citizenship changes with the policy implemented a few months ago that is already reducing the number of 501 deportees being sent back to New Zealand.
By Sunday both prime ministers were set on focusing on the benefits, not any potential “brain drains” or costs that might come about because of fairer and more direct citizenship for Kiwis living in Australia.
Albanese completely ignored a question put to him at the press conference by New Zealand media as to what the cost would be to his country’s welfare system.
His Home Affairs Minister Clare O’Neil had already let the cat out of the bag just a few minutes earlier, though, when she refused to say what the price was because it was part of the Budget that would be revealed in a fortnight.
In other words, Albanese has pushed 'go' on a significant policy but won’t say what it costs until he can sandwich it in among some much bigger Budget announcements.
The weekend has now officially cleared the citizenship issue off the bilateral agenda for the first time in decades and the always-guaranteed tense topic of 501 deportees wasn’t even mentioned between Albanese and Hipkins on Sunday.
The two leaders are now concentrating their energy on the geopolitical climate, Pacific issues, and areas where they can collaborate such as climate, commerce and regulation.
They’re both agreed it’s a “complex world” out there and while the two countries are on different paths when it comes to the issue of nuclear-powered submarines, there was some discussion at least about the second pillar of the Aukus agreement between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
That pillar is focused on intelligence and security. While Hipkins told Newsroom no commitments had been made to join, it was an ongoing conversation that he was happy to have when the opportunity arose.
New Zealand had a lot of diplomatic and political energy tied up in correcting perceived wrongs with Australia’s treatment of Kiwis as second-class citizens.
This weekend’s events have now cleared the deck.
Hipkins is already working towards taking a trade delegation to China later this year ahead of the election, an invitation extended to former leader Jacinda Ardern by Chinese President Xi Xinping.
But Newsroom understands there are some trade officials who think time would be better spent in markets that New Zealand is in the final stages of ratifying agreements with and those where there’s no free trade at all.
India has been put in the too-hard basket by politicians for years because it would mean taking agriculture off the table – a dangerous precedent for New Zealand to set when trying to secure deals with other countries in the future.
But India is too big to ignore, and agreements only ever come after putting time into relationships, even if the benefits might take many years to be seen.
New Zealand only really has one ace card up its sleeve in that market – India’s desire to have freer movement of people into New Zealand.
But if that card is put on the table too early it could leave New Zealand with next to nothing to trade with, if or when a better deal came along, which is why officials are reluctant to use it anytime soon.
Newsroom understands the Government is closing in on making a call whether to continue to pursue a multilateral deal with the Gulf Cooperation Council, or instead focus its attention on negotiations with the United Arab Emirates.
One alternative, Newsroom understands, is a deal with India where New Zealand only provides dairy at the rate it is demanded.
The big fear from India is that anything more would see New Zealand flood the Indian market.
Sources told Newsroom a narrow dairy deal, like the one that already exists with Japan, is something the Government is confident it could get across the line with India.
There are other relationships that could be pursued too, for example, trade negotiations in the Gulf have mostly ground to a halt over an impasse around agricultural exports, and the Pacific Alliance – New Zealand’s trade pathway to Latin America – has also slowed since a change in Colombia’s leadership.
Newsroom understands the Government is closing in on making a call whether to continue to pursue a multilateral deal with the Gulf Cooperation Council, or instead focus its attention on negotiations with the United Arab Emirates.
In the meantime, trade officials are pushing for Hipkins to focus meetings and leader-to-leader face time with the UK and Europe, where work still needs to be done to get the finishing touches on trade deals.
Given the trade relationship with China is a good one, and ever increasing, and the political dynamic is better than it is for other allies, a determination to focus efforts on a week-long trip there in election year is raising eyebrows among some officials.
The chances of that trip happening are about 50/50, Newsroom understands, given there are only so many weeks in the calendar before it becomes bad optics for Hipkins to be jetting overseas.
And there’s already the King’s Coronation and the Nato leaders’ summit in the calendar, both of which Albanese and Hipkins are attending.
After such a smooth run in Brisbane for Hipkins, he might be in Albanese’s debt after a mishap ahead of his visit across the ditch.
During a Q&A with New Zealand media in the days before the weekend’s trip – the details of which were embargoed until 6pm Friday – Hipkins let slip that Albanese would also be attending the Nato summit in July.
This was news to media, not to mention the rest of the world, and prompted Hipkins to immediately pick up the phone and let his good mate know he’d dropped him in it, and if he wanted to be first to announce his international travel then he had 2 days to do so.
There were no surprises in New Zealand's media circles when Albanese put out a statement on Friday afternoon, contrary to earlier reports he wasn’t accepting Nato’s invitation, and was indeed jetting there in July.
What are mates across the ditch for, if not to announce your political travel for you?
