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Motorsport

Kevin Hermann

Long-run analysis: Can anyone beat Kimi Antonelli in Belgium?

Andrea Kimi Antonelli Mercedes Aston Martin Red Bull Max Verstappen Belgium Ferrari Alpine Lewis Hamilton McLaren

Championship leader Kimi ended Friday’s practice sessions in Belgium at the top of the timesheets. With a lap of 1:45.944, he finished 0.190 seconds ahead of McLaren’s Lando Norris, while Red Bull driver Max Verstappen was 0.472 seconds adrift in third. The Italian also set the benchmark during the high-fuel race simulations.

After correcting the second free practice long-run data for different tyre compounds and stint lengths, Antonelli averaged 0.21 seconds per lap faster than his closest rival, Charles Leclerc in the Ferrari. However, Leclerc completed only one representative long-run lap before Pierre Gasly's red flag interrupted the session.

A more meaningful comparison therefore comes against Antonelli’s Mercedes team-mate George Russell and the two Red Bull drivers, who were able to complete several laps of their long-run simulations before the interruption. Verstappen averaged 0.29 seconds per lap slower than the Mercedes, while Russell was almost half a second behind.

Where Mercedes has the edge over Red Bull

Andrea Kimi Antonelli, Mercedes (Photo by: Sam Bagnall / Sutton Images via Getty Images)

Even so, Red Bull could still emerge as Mercedes’ closest challenger at Spa-Francorchamps. Max Verstappen topped the opening practice session and particularly benefited from a straight-line speed advantage in sectors one and three. However, besides struggling through the twisty middle sector, the Red Bull also revealed another weakness: tyre degradation.

Over the course of his eight-lap long-run stint, Verstappen recorded an average tyre degradation of 0.227 seconds per lap. Antonelli, over the same distance, managed just 0.078 seconds per lap. While Red Bull could initially match Mercedes' pace, it steadily lost ground as the stint progressed.

Nevertheless, Red Bull’s position as the second-fastest team is far from guaranteed. Lando Norris was around three tenths quicker than Verstappen in the second practice session, while Ferrari should not yet be ruled out in terms of race pace. That is supported above all by a long run completed by Lewis Hamilton during the opening practice session.

Ferrari's encouraging long run pace

Lewis Hamilton, Ferrari (Photo by: Steven Tee / LAT Images via Getty Images)

Unlike the long runs in the second practice session, the race simulations in FP1 were not interrupted by a red flag. As a result, despite FP2 generally carrying greater significance, the earlier data deserves a closer look.

Lewis Hamilton posted the fastest average long-run pace during the first session, finishing 0.29 seconds per lap quicker than Antonelli’s Mercedes. However, different fuel loads and test programmes mean those figures should be treated with caution.

While some teams deliberately begin their stints at a higher pace to analyse maximum tyre degradation and extrapolate race performance, others adopt a more conservative, tyre-friendly approach from the outset, similar to the strategy expected during Sunday’s Grand Prix.

The degradation figures tell an interesting story. Either Antonelli was deliberately managing his tyres throughout the stint, or Mercedes has found a significant advantage in tyre management over longer runs. Either way, Mercedes and Antonelli currently appear to be the clear favourites heading into the remainder of the weekend, both over a single qualifying lap and in race trim.

Could Aston Martin be in danger of the 107 per cent rule?

Fernando Alonso, Aston Martin Racing (Photo by: Alastair Staley / LAT Images via Getty Images)

Ferrari and Aston Martin are the only teams that have not brought new parts to the Belgian Grand Prix. While Ferrari is taking a development pause after introducing 30 upgrades so far this season, Aston Martin is focusing entirely on the major upgrade package scheduled to debut in Hungary next week.

According to FIA documentation, the Silverstone-based team has introduced just six upgrades this season and has consequently slipped back in the competitive order. In Belgium, Aston Martin could genuinely find itself fighting simply to qualify for the race.

Fernando Alonso's fastest lap in the second practice session was only one tenth of a second quicker than Antonelli’s average long-run pace in a fully fuelled Mercedes. Converted into the equivalent fuel-load difference, Aston Martin's pace deficit is estimated at roughly 100kg of fuel.

With a deficit of 5.187 seconds to the fastest lap in FP2, Aston Martin remained only 2.229 seconds inside the projected 107 per cent qualifying threshold. A qualifying deficit of more than seven seconds would put Aston Martin at genuine risk of missing the 107% cut. The planned upgrade for Hungary can hardly arrive soon enough.

Midfield: Is Alpine back ahead of Racing Bulls?

Franco Colapinto, Alpine (Photo by: Alex Bierens de Haan / Getty Images)

In the midfield, the competitive order appears largely unchanged from recent races. Racing Bulls, Alpine and Audi currently form the leading group, followed by a second tier consisting of Haas and Williams. Cadillac and Aston Martin presently occupy the rear of the field.

Alpine produced the fastest qualifying simulation among the midfield teams during the second practice session and impressed particularly in the high-speed first and third sectors. In the long runs during FP1, however, Audi recorded the best average long-run pace among the midfield runners (+1.66), ahead of Racing Bulls (+1.72) and Alpine (+2.06). There were no significant differences in tyre degradation between the three teams.

Gabriel Bortoleto, Audi F1 Team (Photo by: Andy Hone/ LAT Images via Getty Images)

Speaking of tyres, they are once again expected to play a decisive role in Belgium. According to Pirelli Motorsport Director Dario Marrafuschi, Spa-Francorchamps ranks "among the top three" circuits on the calendar in terms of tyre stress. Even so, there is currently little indication that the race will require two pit stops.

Last year, teams were already able to complete more than 30 laps on the medium C3 compound in some cases. According to Pirelli Chief Engineer Simone Berra, little appears to have changed: "A one-stop race on Sunday looks very likely."