This is the third and final installment of a series focusing on the efforts made by frontline medical workers as well as local governments to bring the pandemic under control.
Yokohama City University has started a new project to collect blood from children who have recovered from the novel coronavirus so that researchers can assess the amount of antibodies present to attack the virus. The university already has the blood of about 700 adults who have recovered from the virus stored in an ultralow-temperature freezer at minus 80 C.
A critical avenue in the fight to bring the coronavirus outbreak under control is trying to determine whether it would be possible to generate a "herd immunity," in which enough people acquire enough immunity to the virus to turn the tide against it. However, this basic aspect of the coronavirus -- how long the immunity lasts within the human body -- has yet to be found.
In its new project, which was started Wednesday, the university will conduct follow-up investigations into those who recover from the infection for the year ahead to assess the amount of antibodies in their blood.
Although it is steady research that takes time and effort, Takeharu Yamanaka, a professor of biostatistics at the university, said, "Science based on data itself is necessary for a battle against a virus."
It has been almost a year since the first infections were found in China. According to the Japan Science and Technology Agency, the number of research papers on the coronavirus worldwide reached 10,000 in June and exceeded 49,000 as of Nov. 10. The United States has the most at 14,045, followed by China with 6,412 and Italy with 5,249. Japan is 16th on the list with 834.
Research papers have been created every day, but the development of medical treatments for the virus is not an easy job. On Friday, the World Health Organization said that there was no difference in mortality and other effects with antiviral drug remdesivir that is used in Japan and the United States.
But those involved in coronavirus treatments on the front line have accepted the WHO announcement on remdesivir differently.
Masaya Yamato, director of the Infectious Diseases Center at the Rinku General Medical Center, said: "Differences do not take place among people whose symptoms have become severe. But in the prior stage of that, if remdesivir is used with other drugs, there is a possibility of rescuing infected people. The effective use [of remdesivir] should be studied."
With parties concerned searching for ways to deal with the coronavirus, measures to protect society and individuals from the virus, such as avoiding the so-called Three Cs of closed spaces, crowded places and close-contact settings, and recognizing the importance of preventing the infection among elderly people, have been producing results little by little.
Akihiko Yoshimura, a professor of immunology at Keio University, said: "As the infectious capability of the coronavirus is so strong, we had difficulties dealing with the pathogenicity. But the coronavirus is not a virus that human beings cannot cope with."
-- Efforts to protect individuals
To contain the spread of the coronavirus, scientific analyses have been promoted to prevent airborne droplets from infected people, such as through coughing.
Approaches have been sought to beat back the coronavirus while maintaining economic activities, such as by avoiding restrictions on going out and other anti-virus measures that have a big impact on society, while encouraging individuals to take thorough preventive steps.
The National Museum of Emerging Science and Innovation in Tokyo has about 50 "science communicators" who teach correct scientific knowledge to visitors and citizens. Since this spring, they have had a daily role of analyzing coronavirus research and relating it to ordinary people in an easy-to-understand manner.
A 42-year-old male science communicator, mentioning the difficulties determining information, said, "As the information on the coronavirus is renewed soon, another information is replaced the following morning in some cases."
Wearing masks was initially considered as working only to ease users' minds, but later was found to produce results in terms of preventing infection and spread of the virus. It was also found that mask wearers can pull off their masks in some cases if they take such measures as keeping a sufficient distance from other persons.
"Even if we have correct knowledge, depending on how we tell it to others, our knowledge could result in blaming the others. Unless all the members of society try to exercise wisdom and knowledge and face up to the coronavirus, a better society would not be possible," said the science communicator.
It is said that measures against the coronavirus need correct knowledge, but there are many unknown factors in the nature of the virus. On the other hand, measures against airborne droplets have steadily been expedited.
A team mainly consisting of Riken and Kobe University introduced the Fugaku supercomputer, which has the highest performance in the world, to run some of these tests. The computer has clarified the effects of masks, ventilation and other steps with its overwhelming calculation capacities by setting up various places, such as fully crowded trains, offices and eating and drinking establishments.
For example, it was found that the number of airborne droplets, such as through coughs of infected people, which can spread up to 1.8 meters ahead, at 30% humidity, doubles to triples the figure at 60% to 90% humidity. That shows the importance of ventilation and humidification in winter.
It was also made clear that the number of airborne droplets in a normal conversation for about 20 minutes, or those for singing for about five minutes, is tantamount to those of a cough.
Makoto Tsubokura, a professor at Kobe University, who serves as the leader of the Riken team, said, "There is more-than-expected need for simulation results."
The government has incorporated the results that Fugaku revealed into its measures against the coronavirus.
A research team, including Yoshihiro Kawaoka, a professor at the University of Tokyo, conducted an experiment with mannequins wearing masks that spray the real virus from their mouths, confirming that if infected people use a cloth or nonwoven mask, they can reduce the spread of the virus by 50% to 70%.
Takayuki Miyazawa, an associate professor of virology at Kyoto University, proposes an approach for each individual to make thorough efforts to reduce the virus that will be absorbed in them.
Stressing the need to make steady efforts, Miyazawa said, "If the amount of the virus to be inhaled from the nose or mouth reduces largely, the infection would not occur."
-- Balance against the economy
When the coronavirus outbreak spread in Japan in spring, the central and local governments urged the public to curb person-to-person contact by 80% and eating and drinking establishments to shutter their operations, resulting in a serious slump in the economy.
Kyoto University announced that mainly due to the economic slump and the rising unemployment rate caused by the spread of the coronavirus, the number of suicides is estimated to increase by 140,000 to 270,000 in the coming 20 to 28 years.
Coronavirus measures are not sufficient only with efforts to decrease the deaths caused by infections alone. Miyazawa said, "Policies should be examined to maintain economic activities while preventing the infection and also reduce the number of deaths in society as a whole."
The government's panel dealing with the coronavirus has announced the five situations that could raise the risk of infection, based on the past research results and other data. Especially, the panel warns of closed spaces and environments in which loud voices are common as situations with a high risk.
As opportunities for many people to gather will increase during the year-end and the New Year's period, there are concerns about a further expansion of infections. It is possible that vigilance against an "unpredictable situation" seen at the early stage of the outbreak is fading and basic countermeasures is being neglected.
Mitsuyoshi Urashima, a professor of public hygiene at the Jikei University School of Medicine, said: "Even if you are fed up with hearing this, what is important is avoiding the Three Cs, wearing masks, washing hands and ventilation. People could feel fatigued if they are always nervous, so it's vital to devise measures with the right emphasis on key points."
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