Londoners are facing the difficult choice of either moving out of the capital or not having children at all, experts have warned.
The London Assembly has been told the capital risks becoming child-free as families are rapidly priced out of the city.
It comes as the number of primary school pupils in London continues to plummet, forcing scores of schools to close in recent years.
“People simply can not afford to bring up their children in London,” Katherine Hill, a strategic programme manager at London child poverty charity 4in10, told assembly members on Tuesday.
“The numbers simply don’t add up. They are faced with the choice of not having any children or moving out to have them.”
The expert said there is clear data that there is an exodus of people with children leaving London, warning: “We need to be aware the declining child population will have an impact on the way our city feels and potentially change the way it feels irrevocably.”
Ms Hill pointed to the closure of the Clerkenwell Parochial CofE Primary School, which shut its doors in 2021, had been there for 321 years and was believed to be the oldest state school building in continuous use in London before its closure. The building is now sitting empty.
Ms Hill also highlighted how schools “represent far more than bricks and mortar” and warned that if a city does not have children it is a sign of an “unhealthy, thriving city.”
“They are places where people come together to learn, socialise and support one another and they are very much at the heart of our communities,” she said. “If we lose them we are losing much more than just figures on a graph.”
Figures from the Education Policy Institute show that by the end of the decade there are expected to be 400,000 fewer pupils at schools in England than there are today.
The number of pupils in primary schools has already fallen by 150,000 since 2019. The EPI said this is largely being driven by a decline in birth rate since 2012 following a post-millennium baby boom.
The number of pupils are dropping faster in London than in the rest of the country, with the cost of living driving young families out of the capital.
The EPI also warned that the drop in pupil numbers began a year earlier in London than in the country as a whole.
A recent report by the EPI showed that London’s pupil numbers peaked at just over 700,000 in 2017/18.
Nine out of the ten areas of the country with the largest drop in primary school pupil numbers are all in London, with Westminster losing nearly 16% of its pupils.
The drop in pupil numbers has also led to the closure of primary schools across the city.
Figures from the EPI show that Southwark, Hackney and Islington have each lost between four and six primary schools in the past five years.
Camden, Westminster, Wandsworth and Merton have also had between one and three primary school closures, the figures added.
The problem is also expected to continue and by the 2028/29 academic year, the numbers of primary school pupils in Islington and Lambeth are projected to have fallen by around 30 per cent compared to a decade earlier.
Dr Bernice Kuang, a research fellow in Demography at the University of Southampton, also told the London Assembly that people are waiting longer to have children across the western world, pointing out that the average age Londoners have their first child is 32.
She highlighted that when people are unsure about their financial futures, they are reluctant to start a family.
Dr Kuang also pointed out that London has a large migrant population meaning there are lots of people “who seem like they are parent age but they might not be planning to settle here and have a family”.
“It is not the easiest of circumstances,” she said. “And in that way I think London is unique… housing is extremely expensive and we know that culturally in the UK it is seen as necessary to own a house before you start a family.”
She continued: “Private rented accommodation is usually not seen as the context for starting a family - although that is changing.”
Dr Kuang added that although people are waiting longer to have their first child most people go on to have two or three children and that family sizes have remained similar.
“You could maybe have one child in a one or two bedroom apartment,” she continued. “But to have your second or third, it’s probably really difficult in the most expensive areas.”
Susie Dye, the grants manager at the Trust for London also warned that there has been a big decline in social housing in London and a rise in private renting.
“If you can not find somewhere stable and affordable to make a home and bring up a family either you delay that or move away,” she told London assembly members. “People don’t want their children to grow up in poverty. I think that makes a big difference.”
The expert also pointed out that even when family-sized properties are being built they are being used by young professionals as shared houses.
Ms Hill also highlighted that not enough family-sized properties are being built. She added: “We are very concerned about new housing starts. The vast majority are one beds, a very small proportion are two beds and hardly any are three or four beds.
“You could look at a story where there is a declining number of children and families in London and ergo, we need fewer homes for families and that becomes self-fulfilling.”.
