This year’s students are the first to take exams since 2019
(Picture: PA Wire)A-level students in London are expected to receive some of the best grades in the country despite an overall predicted drop in results, experts said on Monday.
Figures suggest London schools have been less disrupted by absence than other regions, which is likely to have an impact on exam results.
Experts also said the “dynamism” of the capital’s schools and an aspirational population means London students will fare well compared to other regions.
The overall number of top grade A-levels will fall on results day this Thursday as exams regulator Ofqual cracks down on the grade inflation seen during the pandemic when results were decided by teacher assessments.
This year’s students, who are the first to take exams since 2019, are expected to face a scramble to secure university places in one of the most competitive years ever.
However, Lee Elliot Major, professor of social mobility at the University of Exeter, said: “I expect London’s pupils to produce some of the best results in the country — driven by the dynamism of the capital’s schools and its diverse aspirational population. What is particularly striking is the high achievement of London’s disadvantaged pupils, envied across the country.”
He added: “Absence rates are lower in London overall. In education, it is one of the most simple but powerful facts we know: if you are not in the classroom experiencing face-to-face teaching, you will fall behind.”
Professor Alan Smithers, director of the Centre for Education and Employment Research at the University of Buckingham, said: “London has powered ahead in its educational performance — from limping along 20 years ago to now performing better than any other part of England.
“Evidence suggested London pupils were less disrupted than other parts of the country during Covid, which leads us to expect they will continue to maintain their dominance.”
Geoff Barton, general secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders, said: “Regional trends in past years tend to suggest that A-level results in London and the South-East are likely to be higher than other regions of England.
“Exam results are closely aligned to disadvantage, so that in areas where there are more pockets of entrenched socio-economic disadvantage, then results are likely to be lower than in areas where there is a generally higher level of affluence.”
Dave Thomson, chief statistician at the FFT Education Datalab, told Tes Magazine there will be a regional difference in results “because the impact of the pandemic has been uneven…London will be the least affected as that has been lower than the rest of the country”.
But Professor Elliot Major added that despite London’s success, it still has “stark educational and social divides”.
He said: “There are harrowing stories from the frontline of schools of students unable to pay for travel or having to take time off sixth form study to help pay the bills at home.
“There is much still to do to level the playing field for all teenagers so that their prospects aren’t determined by where they happen to live.”
