The population of London is expected to grow to almost 9.5m by 2032 – putting it on course for 10m by the middle of the next decade.
The increase will be largely driven by international migration – with the East End borough of Tower Hamlets set for an astonishing 20.4 per cent rise in residents, including a net increase of more than 87,000 people from abroad.
New data from the Office for National Statistics predicts that London’s population will grow by 6.71 per cent between 2022 and 2032 – above the national average.
At present, the capital’s population is 8,869,000. This is predicted to grow by 595,000 people by 2032, taking it to 9,464,000.
According to the ONS, the projected growth in the London population will be “caused by high positive natural change and international migration”.
Natural change is the difference between births and deaths. In London’s case, it means that the number of people being born will outstrip those dying.
International migration is the movement of people into and out of the UK. The data suggests that London and the West Midlands will be the only two regions to experience population growth despite many current residents leave for elsewhere in the country.
Professor Tony Travers, of the London School of Economics, said: “These projections show London remains a hugely attractive place to live and work. But there will need to be significant investment to ensure the city remains liveable.
“Inner London continues to see the fastest population growth. As London heads for 10 million residents, new housing, transport and cultural investment will be essential.”
In Tower Hamlets, one of the capital’s most ethnically diverse boroughs, high levels of migration could take its population to 500,000 by 2047.
The borough is projected to be the fastest growing local authority in England between mid-2022 and mid-2032, with a 20.4 per cent projected population increase.
This excludes the City of London, which is predicted to see its population increase by 48 per cent, though from a tiny base of about 17,000 residents.
The ONS said: “The population in Tower Hamlets is projected to increase from 323,854 people in 2022 to 389,845 people in 2032.
“The biggest factor in this population change is net international migration, which will increase the population by 87,576 people.”
In its analysis of Tower Hamlets, the ONS predicted 47,327 births and 13,204 deaths between 2022 and 2032 – a “natural change” in the population of 10.5 per cent.
Net internal migration - people moving to and from other local authorities in England - is projected to cut the borough’s population by 59,612 or 18.4 per cent, with 355,582 people moving to the area and 415,194 people leaving between 2022 and 2032.
The South West is projected to be the fastest-growing region in England. Its population is projected to increase by 7.5 per cent by mid-2032, an increase of 430,000 people.
Net international migration is projected to increase Tower Hamlets’ population by 87,576, with 165,687 people moving to the area and 78,111 people moving from the area between 2022 and 2032.
Across England, a 6.4 per cent population increase is predicted, from 57.1 million in mid-2022 to 60.8 million in mid-2032.
By mid-2047, the population of England is projected to be 64.4 million.
The ONS published the figures on Wednesday in its “subnational population projections for England”.
These statistics are used in planning, health and education and are based on the 2021 Census and more up-to-date migration data.
But the ONS warned: “Subnational population projections are not forecasts and do not attempt to predict potential changes in international migration. There is uncertainty over future directions and levels of international migration.
“At the local level, population change is influenced by economic development and housing policies, factors that are not included in these projections.”
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