Scorching 45C heat “may be possible” and heatwaves lasting over a month “may be possible” as climate change increases the risk of extreme heat in the UK, the Met Office has warned.
Forecasters have revealed that there is a 50: 50 chance that Britain could see record-breaking temperatures in the next 12 years, with temperatures soaring above 40C, with questions being raised about how prepared the UK is for extreme heat.
Temperatures in the UK have only reached 40C once before during the heatwave and drought in July 2022, peaking at 40.3C in Coningsby in Lincolnshire.
Major incidents were announced by fire brigades in London, Leicestershire and South Yorkshire as dozens of fires broke out and ripped through houses, schools, churches and farmland, while there was widespread disruption to transport and power systems.
The London Fire Brigade had its busiest day since the Second World War when it was forced to tackle more than 200 wildfires as temperatures hit 40.2C in July 2022.
Fires tore through people’s homes, destroying 19 homes in the east London village of Wennington, near Rainham, and damaging a further 56 properties.
Analysis by the Met Office, using global models to create a large number of climate outcomes in current conditions, shows the risk of further 40C temperatures in the UK has been rapidly increasing.
A study published in Weather Journal shows that the chance of temperatures hitting 40C is more than 20 times more likely than it was in the 1960s, and has almost trebled since the year 2000.
The Met Office explained that climate change means that the UK could see temperatures several degrees higher than the July 2022 record.
Dr Gillian Kay, senior scientist at the Met Office, and lead author of the study, said: “The chance of exceeding 40C has been rapidly increasing, and it is now over 20 times more likely than it was in the 1960s.
“Because our climate continues to warm, we can expect the chance to keep rising.
“We estimate a 50:50 chance of seeing a 40C day again in the next 12 years.
“We also found that temperatures several degrees higher than we saw in July 2022 are possible in today’s climate.”
The climate model also shows up to two-thirds of summer days could be above the heatwave threshold of 28C in south-east England, with more than a month in continuous heatwave.
And 12 consecutive days above 35C may also be possible, the study says.
Last summer, London’s fire chief said The LFB was “well-prepared” for the growing threat of wildfires in the capital, labelling the July 2022 wildfires as a “watershed” moment for the brigade.
Four new specialist vehicles that can drive off-road and have technology that allows firefighters to pump water while driving have been added to the brigade’s roo
The LFB has also introduced a “holey hose” which can create a two-metre-high curtain of water.
Met Office scientists have also warned that Britain needs to prepare for the impact of rising temperatures.
Dr Nick Dunstone, Met Office science fellow and co-author of the study, said: “The well-known hot summer of 1976 had more than a fortnight above 28°C, which is a key heatwave threshold in south-east England.
“Our study finds that in today’s climate such conditions could persist for a month or more.
“These findings highlight the need to prepare and plan for the impacts of rising temperatures now, so we can better protect public health, infrastructure, and the environment from the growing threat of extreme heat.”
