London’s hospitals are on the verge of being overwhelmed by coronavirus even under the ‘best case’ scenario, according to an official briefing.
The Health Service Journal said NHS England London medical director Vin Diwakar had established the stark predictions to the medical directors of London’s hospital trusts on a Zoom call.
The NHS England presentation, seen by the HSJ, showed that even if the number of Covid patients grew at the lowest rate considered likely, and measures to manage demand and increase capacity, including opening the capital’s Nightingale hospital, were successful, the NHS in London would be short of nearly 2,000 general and acute and intensive care beds by January 19.
The briefing forecasts demand for both G&A and intensive care beds, for both Covid and non-Covid patients, against capacity. It accounted for the impact of planned measures to mitigate demand and increase capacity.
For both G&A and intensive care, three scenarios are detailed: “Best”, which projects 4% daily growth; “Average” which plots 5% daily growth; and “worse” which forecasts 6% daily growth.
The briefing says that growth on January 5 was 3.5% for G&A beds and 4.8% for ICU beds.
GP surgeries in England are to begin administering the Oxford/AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccine as the UK faces a race to protect the population after the daily reported death toll topped 1,000.
The drive to mass vaccinate the population will take a considerable step forward as the NHS in England said the jab would be rolled out across GP surgeries from Thursday.
The development comes after the UK reported a further 1,041 people had died within 28 days of testing positive for Covid-19 as of Wednesday – the highest daily reported total since April 21.
