Just 24 new coronavirus infections are occurring each day in London, according to new modelling - but fears have been raised that workers are being put at risk on crowded trains and buses.
Experts from the University of Cambridge believe the 'R' rate - the number of people an infected person passes the disease over to - has plummeted to 0.4.
This means that for every 10 people with the killer bug, there will be four fresh infections.
In the early stages of the pandemic it was believed to be more than three.
If this is correct, the virus could be eliminated by next month.
But in the North East and Yorkshire, experts believe the 'R' rate is double London's figure at 0.8 - meaning there will be eight new infections per 10 cases.
Nevertheless pictures of crowded trains and buses this week have raised alarm amid concerns of a fresh spike in cases.
The modelling is the the work of a joint Public Health England (PHE) and University of Cambridge group.
It comes as the government begins to ease lockdown restrictions, with Prime Minister Boris Johnson urging people to go back to work.
A Cabinet minister today rebuffed claims London could see lockdown eased sooner.
Brandon Lewis acknowledged England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland will move at different paces.
But when asked if the capital could be different too, the Northern Ireland Secretary told Sky News: “We want to ensure we take a cautious approach to this.
“Because anywhere in England and the UK, we want to avoid that R rate moving back up.
“We want to keep it on that downward trend. And we’ve all got a part to play by following the guidelines - including in London.
“If the analysis is correct and London is that much lower than elsewhere, it’s important we don’t allow that to rise again - whether it’s London, whether it’s the north east, whether it’s any part of the UK.
“Continuing to follow the guidelines that are set out is important in terms of keeping that R level within control.”
Pictures of crowded tubes and buses have sparked fears that commuters could be putting themselves in danger by travelling to work.
There was a 10% increase in London Underground journeys early on Thursday compared with the same period last week, Transport for London (TfL) said.
One worrying snap taken by nurse Abbie Biddick showed commuters forced to stand on a crowded Central Line carriage this morning with many not wearing masks.
She wrote on Twitter : "All the news reporters who claim the tube isn’t busy clearly haven't got on the central line in the morning. Every seat full and people stood no more than 10cm apart."
Twitter user James Hart shared a picture of a busy Jubilee Line train taken while travelling from North Greenwich to Wembley Park. He asked: "#WheresYourMasks?"
Labour has taken aim at the Government's track-and-trace plans - seen as key to allowing the UK to lift the most stringent lockdown measures -warning ministers its crack team of contact tracers should be close to three times the size of the operation currently being installed.
The Local Government Association (LGA) has said schools should be allowed to make their own decisions about reopening, especially in areas where there is a higher proportion of black, Asian and minority ethnic residents.
Councillor Judith Blake, chairwoman of the LGA's children and young people board, said parents were "anxious" about sending their children back to school and said more needed to be done to reassure families.
