Will it be Boris? Or will it be Ken?
If YouGov in the Evening Standard is correct, Boris Johnson is on course to win by 55% to 45% after second preferences are taken into account.
Are they right? The result could depend on many factors:
1. Is Boris's support solid? Or will some of his supporters have second thoughts when they get to the polling booth on Thursday, and decide that it's not worth the risk?
2. If Ken Livingstone loses, is it his fault, Gordon Brown's, or the London Evening Standard's?
3. Is the Tory "zone five" (outer London) strategy working? Will the Tories do better in the suburbs than usual?
4. Has Labour got the resources on the ground to get its vote out?
5. Where are the Lib Dem second preferences going to go?
6. Where are the other second preferences going to go?
If you've been involved in the campaign, and you've got answers to any of these questions, please let us know. And, even if you haven't been directly involved, tell us what you think.
