Sir Tony Blair's former political secretary has warned that "Labour are toast”, as the party prepares to lose seats to Reform UK at the polls tomorrow.
John McTernan has said there’s “nothing that can be done” in the next 24 hours that can drastically change Labour’s fate in local elections on Thursday.
He told Times Radio: “You look at all the focus groups, if you go to any of them, what do people associate the Labour Party with? Taking winter fuel payments away from pensioners.
“Why are they attacking pensioners? Why are they now attacking the disabled? That's what people are saying. It's on the doorstep in Runcorn. It's on the doorstep everywhere.”
The comments come after Sir Tony U-turned on his attack on the government’s net zero policies.
Polls are predicting sweeping victories for Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, as voters across 23 local authorities decide on some 1,641 council seats, while six mayoralties are also being contested.
Alongside local elections, the first by-election of this parliament, for Runcorn & Helsby, will see Farage’s party trying to overturn Labour’s victory last summer.
Key Points
- Farage’s Reform UK expected to win hundreds of seats in local elections
- Starmer claims Farage has recruited Liz Truss as his 'new top adviser'
- Starmer and Badenoch clash over child grooming scandal ahead of polling day
- Tony Blair clarifies government's net zero strategy is 'right one'
- Cabinet minister defends Blair's attack on government net-zero plan as 'important contribution'
Britons name ‘none of the above’ as most popular candidate before local elections
16:19 , Athena StavrouThe most popular political leader is “none of the above” a new poll shows just hours before voters go to the polls in the local elections.
Ahead of Thursday’s local elections, polling company More In Common asked voters who they thought would be most effective at governing the country with 41 per cent responding: “None of the above.”
Kate Devlin and Alicja Hagopian report:
Britons name ‘none of the above’ as most popular candidate before local elections
Starmer and Ross Kemp join phone bank at the Labour headquarters, during campaigning for tomorrow's elections
16:01 , Athena Stavrou
Rupert Lowe’s solicitors deliver legal papers to Reform UK on eve of election
15:34 , Athena StavrouNigel Farage and Reform UK have had an unwelcome eve of election gift from their former MP Rupert Lowe after his solicitors announced they had delivered legal papers on the party.
The Great Yarmouth MP was ousted from the party in March over alleged bullying allegations and a claim had threatened chairman Zia Yusuf.
But Mr Lowe has announced that he is suing Mr Farage, Mr Yusuf and party chief whip Lee Anderson for defamation over the incident.
Supporters of Lowe claim he was forced out because he had criticised Mr Farage in an interview with the Daily Mail for being “messianic” and claiming Reform was just a party of protest.
Added to that Elon Musk had earlier in the year suggested Mr Lowe as an alternative leader.Mr Farage has said he was “disgusted” by the Great Yarmouth MP’s behaviour.
After serving papers Mr Lowe’s solicitor DRM said that their client is “seeking fair and reasonable redress” over a report into him which said there were grounds for the bullying allegations.
Reform have dismissed the allegations from Mr Lowe.
Badenoch will stay on ‘no matter how bad’ local elections are
15:19Kemi Badenoch will stay on as Tory leader no matter how bad the local elections are for the Conservatives.
The party is going up against a bar set by Boris Johnson at the height of his popularity, and are expected under Ms Badenoch to suffer hundreds of losses on Thursday night.
Speculation is rife the Tory leader will be challenged by Robert Jenrick or other anxious Conservatives if she fares as badly as, or worse than, expected.
But her official spokesman said: “She was elected on the basis of having a long term plan for the renewal of the Conservative Party, she is five months in.
“The party knew what they were voting for, and the party is still united, she commands widespread support and is getting on with the job.”
Asked whether that means she is staying on no matter how badly the party does, Ms Badenoch’s spokesman said: “Yes, she is staying on, yes.”
'Labour are toast' - Blair's former adviser
15:01 , Athena StavrouTony Blair's former political secretary has warned that "Labour are toast” at the polls tomorrow.
John McTernan said there’s “nothing that can be done” in the next 24 hours that can drastically change Labour’s fate in local elections.
He told Times Radio: “You look at all the focus groups, if you go to any of them, what do people associate the Labour Party with? Taking winter fuel payments away from pensioners.
“Why are they attacking pensioners? Why are they now attacking the disabled? That's what people are saying.
“It's on the doorstep in Runcorn. It's on the doorstep everywhere. So Labour have crazy conditions. This election has nothing to do with net zero.”
Which elections are happening on Thursday?
14:47 , Athena StavrouMillions of voters across England will head to the polls on Thursday as several different elections take place.
Here is an outline of which ones will happen tomorrow:
Councillors
Voters will go to the polls in 23 areas across England to vote for their local councillors.
A total of 1,641 council seats are up for grabs.
Mayoral
Mayoral elections are also taking place in six of the areas seeing local elections.
Two of these, in Greater Lincolnshire and Hull, and East Yorkshire, will be seeing these for the first time.
By-election
Constituents in Runcorn and Helsby will also vote in the first by-election of this parliament.
The vote was triggered by former Labour MP Mike Amesbury’s decision to stand down rather than face a recall petition after he received a 10-week prison sentence – suspended on appeal – for punching a man.
Watch: Starmer marathon jibe pokes fun at Jenrick's leadership ambitions
14:33 , Athena StavrouTories seeking to ‘erase worst election defeat from history’
14:17 , Athena StavrouThe Independent’s political correspondent Millie Cooke reports:
The Conservatives have been accused of trying to erase their worst election defeat on record from history, after suggesting Ofcom should scrub it from its records.
Top Tory Kevin Hollinrake called on ministers to remove the broadcaster’s use of the 2019 European Parliament elections from its recent publication, entitled: “Evidence of past electoral support and evidence of current support ahead of the various elections taking place on 1 May 2025.”
The publication reminds Tories of a devastating night for the party, when it secured just 9.1 per cent of the vote, behind Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party - now Reform - on 31.6 per cent and the Liberal Democrats on 20.3 per cent of the vote.
Shadow minister Mr Hollinrake asked culture minister Sir Chris Bryant: “If he will have discussions with Ofcom on removing its use of historic data from European Parliamentary elections in its most recent publication.”
Sir Chris highlighted Ofcom’s independence and rejected the call.
A Reform UK spokesman said: “It's frankly embarrassing that the Conservatives are trying to hide their most humiliating election defeat. One has to wonder if they will be asking for the 2024 General Election result to be erased from history next."And Labour MP Terry Jermy said: “It seems like they wish to erase the history books in which they now seem destined to belong."
Tories have ‘all but given up’ on Runcorn on by-election
14:04 , Athena StavrouThe Independent’s political correspondent Archie Mitchell reports:
The Tories have all but given up on campaigning in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election, Labour has claimed.
A spokesman for the prime minister said he has been campaigning across the country in the run up to the local elections, but confirmed he has not visited Runcorn himself.
Despite Sir Keir not campaigning in the race to replace Mike Amesbury, who quit after being filmed drunkenly assaulting a constituent, Sir Keir’s spokesman said: “The prime minister has been campaigning throughout this period, we have a great candidate in Runcorn, Karen Shore.
“Meanwhile, the Tories have all but given up campaigning there in the latest sign of their pact with Reform.”
Kemi Badenoch’s official spokesman said they were not targeting the “Labour safe seat” but still urged constituents to “vote Conservative”.
No 10 does not deny government asked Blair to issue clarification on net-zero comments
13:39 , Athena StavrouDowning Street did not say whether the Tony Blair Institute had been asked by the Government to issue a clarification to the former prime minister’s attack on “irrational” net -zero strategies.
Just minutes before PMQs began, Sir Tony said the government’s net-zero approach is the “right one”, after he criticised any strategy that limits fossil fuels in the short term as “doomed to fail”.
Asked whether the Government had asked the institute to send out a follow-up statement on Wednesday backing its net-zero goal, the Prime Minister’s official spokesman said: “I wouldn’t get into private conversations.”
He added: “There is lots of support for the Government’s approach to net zero… I think there is a broad consensus on the Government’s approach to net zero.”
Starmer disagrees with Blair on climate change comments - Downing Street
13:32 , Athena StavrouSir Keir Starmer does not agree with Sir Tony Blair that there is “hysteria” in the international debate on climate change, Downing Street indicated.
Asked whether the Prime Minister thought there was hysteria in the conversation on net zero, the Prime Minister’s official spokesman said: “Our approach to net zero is clear. it is families up and down this country that will pay the price for the UK’s dependence on fossil fuel markets.”
He said the Government’s net zero policy would help with jobs growth and investing in the industries of the future.
Pressed on whether Sir Keir thought there was hysteria in the tone of the international debate on climate, the spokesman said: “I don’t think so, I mean I think we’re taking a very practical and pragmatic approach to this here in the UK.”
Labour MP slapped down by Commons after asking about possible Tory-Reform megera
13:18The Independent’s political correspondent Millie Cooke reports:
A Labour MP was slapped down by the House of Commons speaker after asking the prime minister about a possible merger between the Tories and Reform.
Asking a question in the Commons at PMQs, Labour MP Dan Tomlinson said: “There’s going to have to be a coming together of Reform and the Conservative Party in some way. A deal, a pact or a merger.
“These aren’t my words, Mr Speaker, but those of the most senior Tory in elected public office in the country, the mayor of the Tees Valley. So if senior Tories are plotting it and the leader of the opposition won't deny it - doesn’t that mean that the only way to stop this plot is to vote Labour?”
But before Sir Keir could answer, Commons speaker Lindsay Hoyle intervened, saying: “There’s no need to answer, you’ve no responsibility for any party.”
This is because Sir Keir takes PMQs in his capacity as prime minister, not as the leader of the Labour Party.
Defence secretary says Yemen strike was to protect UK 'economic security'
12:59Following PMQs, the defence secretary delivered a statement on the UK’s strikes in Yemen on Tuesday evening.
John Healey told MPs the joint operation with the US targeted Houthi military facilities to uphold “freedom of navigation” for ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.
He said: “Yesterday’s attack aligns with four broad objectives. One, to restore freedom of navigation in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.
“Two, to degrade Houthi capability and prevent future attacks.
“Three, to reinforce regional security alongside allies and partners.
“And four, to protect our economic security at home.”
PMQs: Sammy Wilson asks the Tony Blair question that the Tories should have asked
12:52 , Athena StavrouThe Independent’s political editor David Maddox reports:
It took more than half an hour of questions at PMQs before any MP thought about asking a question on the story of the week - Tony Blair’s attack on his party’s own net zero policies.
In particular, the silence from Tories was stunning on the issue given that Kemi Badenoch, their leader, has prioritised the issue.
Ms Badenoch herself chose to go in on grooming gangs for her six questions.But then we had an advert for a choral event in parliament by another senior Tory MP Sir Bernard Jenkin.
After that Mark Francois pushed his campaign on recognition for Dame Vera Lynn.
Amazingly, it took a Democratic Unionist from Northern Ireland, Sammy Wilson, to finally get a question in on the net zero row 34 minutes into PMQs with the penultimate question.
Starmer claimed Blair - who has since clarified his position - does not disagree with the government.
But missing open goals at PMQs has been a feature of the Tories under Ms Badenoch’s leadership. Today was no exception.
PMQs finished
12:41 , Athena StavrouThe final PMQs ahead of Thursday’s local elections has now finished.
Sir Keir Starmer clashed with Kemi Badenoch in the Commons before voters head to the polls tomorrow.
The Tory leader focused on the issue of child grooming gangs, as she asked whether he would name where local inquiries would be set up.
The prime minister also faced questions on immigration and a UK-US trade deal.
Starmer faces calls to give MPs vote on UK-US trade deal
12:35 , Athena StavrouLiberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey has called on the prime minister to say whether MPs will get a vote on a UK trade deal with the US.
Sir Ed told asked the Commons: “Will the Government give members of this House a vote on the floor of this House on any deal he agrees with President Trump, yes or no?”
Sir Keir Starmer replied: “We are in negotiations with the US in relation to a deal. We will act obviously in the national interest and make sure that if there is a deal, it’s the right deal for our country.
“If it is secured, it will go through the known procedures for this House.”
Sir Ed said told MPs in response: “I’m very disappointed in that reply – there was no ‘yes’ or ‘no’ response. We do want a vote, and we will keep pressing him and his Government on that.”
If your question includes the term ‘plan for change’, don’t bother asking
12:31 , Athena StavrouThe Independent’s political correspondent Archie Mitchell reports:
Week in, week out, ambitious Labour backbenchers pop up to ask Sir Keir Starmer how great his “plan for change” is.
Despite Labour’s catastrophic poll ratings, support for the PM from supine MPs has hit a new peak ahead of the local elections.
A day before voters go to the polls, Labour MP after Labour MP have asked Sir Keir about different aspects of the plan for change.
Almost as if it were planned, the PM has been more than happy to reel off pre-written lines about what a good job he has been doing.
Winning the superficial backing of his own MPs is one thing, we will find out this week whether voters feel the same.
Starmer claims Farage has recruited Liz Truss as his 'new top adviser'
12:26 , Athena StavrouThe Independent’s political correspondent Millie Cooke reports:
Keir Starmer has accused Nigel Farage of recruiting Liz Truss as his “new top adviser”, warning that a vote for Reform is a vote for “pro-Putin foreign policy and a vote against workers’ rights”.
It comes after reports that allies of the Reform UK leader held talks with the former PM - who lasted just 49 days in office - on how to take on “the blob”.
The prime minister told the Commons at PMQs: “Let’s be clear what a vote for his party means, it means a vote to charge for the NHS, it means a pro-Putin foreign policy and a vote against workers rights.
“And now we hear, Mr Speaker, he’s recruited Liz Truss as his new top adviser, as he was cheering on the mini budget.”
Farage calls for national emergency over migrants from ‘alien’ cultures
12:24 , Athena StavrouThe Independent’s political correspondent Archie Mitchell reports:
Nigel Farage has called on Sir Keir Starmer to declare a national emergency over the influx of migrants into Britain from “alien” cultures.
In an incendiary question, the Reform UK leader said 10,000 young undocumented males have crossed the English Channel into our country, a 40 per cent increase from this time last year.
“Many coming from cultures that were somewhat alien to us,” he added.
Mr Farage asked whether the PM would admit his promise to “smash” the people-smuggling gangs was an election slogan and declare a national emergency over small boats.
Mr Farage even name-checked Runcorn and Helsby, where Labour is fending off a major by-election challenge from Reform.
Sir Keir accused Mr Farage of voting against tougher immigration measures, and warned that a vote for Reform was a vote for charges to access the NHS and a leader who “fawns over Putin”.
Watch live: Keir Starmer grilled in parliament ahead of crunch local elections
12:19Sir Keir Starmer is facing questions from MPs in this week's Prime Minister's Questions (PMQs), a day before people head to the polls to vote in the local elections and the by-election in the Cheshire constituency of Runcorn and Helsby.
Watch live here:
Watch live: Keir Starmer grilled in parliament ahead of crunch local elections
Starmer hints Badenoch might not survive local election drubbing
12:16 , Athena StavrouThe Independent’s political correspondent Archie Mitchell reports:
Sir Keir Starmer has hinted that Kemi Badenoch might not survive an expected drubbing in the local elections.
Mocking the Tory leader, who is expected to suffer heavy losses overnight on Thursday, the smirking prime minister said “we’ll see her next week”.
Sir Keir said it would be the first opportunity the country has had to pass a verdict on Ms Badenoch as the new Tory leader.
“Have they changed… have they learned,” he asked.
Starmer hits back on grooming gangs as Badenoch uses issue as local election attack
12:13 , Athena StavrouThe Independent’s political correspondent Archie Mitchell reports:
Sir Keir Starmer has accused Kemi Badenoch of being silent on grooming gangs for three years as the minister responsible for children, women and equalities.
Responding to the Tory leader asking whether he thinks he should expose the cover up of grooming gangs, Sir Keir denied there had been one and again highlighted his record prosecuting grooming gangs.
“There is a contrast here, because the leader of the opposition, as minister for children, women and equalities, never raised this issue in the House for three years,” the PM said.
Grooming gangs have become a lightning rod ahead of Thursday’s local elections, with Reform UK and the Conservatives capitalising on the government’s refusal to hold a new national inquiry to attack Labour.
Sir Keir said: “We have had a national inquiry. We've had recommendations.
“There are hundreds of recommendations that have been made in relation to this issue. It is a serious issue. I strongly, I strongly believe that we should implement the recommendations that have already been made, and that is what we are doing.”
Starmer and Badenoch clash over child grooming scandal ahead of polling day
12:09Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch has asked Sir Keir Starmer to name where local enquiries into child grooming gangs will be set up
Sir Keir replied: “They’ve got so much to say now. Why did they not implement a single recommendation in the 14 years they had in office?”
Starmer answering questions at final PMQs before crunch elections
12:01 , Athena StavrouSir Keir Starmer’s final PMQs before Thursday’s crucial local elections has begun.
The prime minister will be taking questions from MPs amid a row about the government’s net zero approach and polling predicting sweeping victories for Reform UK in local elections.
Sir Keir began by congratulating Mark Carney on his victory in the Canadian elections.
Blair clarifies position on government's net zero approach
11:55 , Athena StavrouSir Tony Blair has clarified his opinion on the government’s net zero policies, after he criticised any strategy that limits fossil fuels in the short term as “doomed to fail”.
The former prime minister has now said the government’s approach is the “right one”, after the intervention sparked a political row.
A spokeswoman for the Tony Blair Institute told The Times: “We must prioritise technologies which capture carbon, place a bigger emphasis on protecting and enhancing nature, and develop new nuclear power, smart grids, and a new system of financing existing renewable solutions in developing economies
“The UK government is already pursuing these, and their approach is the right one.
“The report is clear we support the government's 2050 net zero targets, to give certainty to the investors and innovators who can develop these new solutions and make them deployable”
Pictured: Starmer leaves Downing Street ahead of PMQs
11:51 , Athena Stavrou
Diane Abbott criticises Tony Blair over net-zero comments
11:46 , Athena StavrouDiane Abbott has criticised Sir Tony Blair over his comments on the government’s net-zero approach.
The Labour MP wrote on X: “People's homes, livelihoods and lives are already being destroyed by the effects of climate change now, here and globally.
“But Tony Blair says we should not try to combat it because it interferes with the profits of a few fossil fuel companies.”
Starmer to face grilling at final PMQs before local elections
11:35 , Athena StavrouSir Keir Starmer is set to face his final PMQs before Thursday’s crunch local elections.
The prime minister will be taking questions from MPs at 12pm, in what is expected to be a tough session amid a row about the government’s net zero approach.
He will also likely be answering questions on the latest polls, which have suggested Reform UK could take sweeping victories across England in local elections tomorrow.
We will be bringing you live coverage of PMQs here.
Blair 'right to point out' net-zero concerns - cabinet minister
11:28 , Athena StavrouThe environment secretary has reiterated that he believes Sir Tony Blair’s input on the government’s net-zero approach is “helpful”
Steve Reed told GB News: “You have to be pragmatic with these things. We have to manage the transition in a way that people and the economy can go along with it.
“I think he’s absolutely right to point that out, but pragmatic is what we’re being. But I don’t want us to be dependent for our energy on Vladimir Putin.
“I want us to take back control of our own [energy], I think most British people would agree with that, and I think we do need to invest more in carbon capture and storage, but that’s why the Government’s invested this £22 billion.
“I think it’s helpful that Tony Blair has raised this, actually, because it is a concern that people have in the elections that we’re facing, and it’s good that it gives the opportunity to people to come and have this debate.”
Reeves gets election-eve boost from major banking boss
11:15 , Athena StavrouThe Independent’s political correspondent Archie Mitchell reports:
Rachel Reeves has received a boost ahead of what is expected to be a bleak election night for Labour.
After a trip to Washington, the chancellor won the backing of long-standing JP Morgan boss Jamie Dimon, who said her policies are making Britain a better place to invest.
Mr Dimon told the FT: “I’ve always been a believer in the UK’s inherent strengths as a place to do business and there’s much to like about the new government’s pro-growth agenda.
“They have reinforced their commitments to an open economy, strengthening of infrastructure and the stability of markets — all of which is good for investor confidence.”
Government send 'clear message' by Blair - Shadow environment secretary
10:59 , Athena StavrouShadow environment secretary Victoria Atkins has said former prime minister Sir Tony Blair’s criticism is a “clear message” that the Government needs to “rethink” its approach to net zero.
She told Sky News: “A couple of months ago, Kemi Badenoch gave a big speech about net zero, her concerns about it, how the targets that have been laid are proving impossible to meet.
“Lo and behold, it seems now Sir Tony Blair agrees with her, and it’s the Labour Government that perhaps has lost their way in this argument.”
She added: “If Tony Blair, even Tony Blair, doesn’t agree with the Labour Government, then that is quite a clear message, I would imagine, to them, that they have got to rethink this.”
Which elections are happening on Thursday?
10:52 , Athena StavrouMillions of voters across England will head to the polls on Thursday as several different elections take place.
Here is an outline of which ones will happen tomorrow:
Councillors
Voters will go to the polls in 23 areas across England to vote for their local councillors.
A total of 1,641 council seats are up for grabs.
Mayoral
Mayoral elections are also taking place in six of the areas seeing local elections.
Two of these, in Greater Lincolnshire and Hull, and East Yorkshire, will be seeing these for the first time.
By-election
Constituents in Runcorn and Helsby will also vote in the first by-election of this parliament.
The vote was triggered by former Labour MP Mike Amesbury’s decision to stand down rather than face a recall petition after he received a 10-week prison sentence – suspended on appeal – for punching a man.
Reform plays down changes of winning Runcorn - but Nigel Farage’s party will face real questions if it fails to win Westminster seat
10:42 , Athena StavrouKate Devlin, The Independent’s Whitehall Editor reports:
With just a day to go before polls open, Reform UK are playing down their chances of winning a Westminster by-election.
Nigel Farage’s party had hoped to take the Runcorn seat, previously held by Labour.But party insiders are now trying to dampen expectations.
They point to the fact that the area is traditionally seen as a Labour heartland and accuse Sir Keir Starmer’s party of ‘expectation management’.
But with Reform riding high in the opinion polls, losing the chance to gain an extra MP will raise questions about the momentum behind Farage’s outfit - and its ability to turn polling support into votes.
Full story: Tony Blair at war with Ed Miliband over net zero
10:29 , Athena StavrouTony Blair has gone to war with Keir Starmer’s government over its pursuit of net zero policies.
The ex-PM warns energy secretary Ed Miliband his eco policies are wrong because voters know their sacrifices will have virtually no impact on climate change.
Sir Tony claimed voters “feel they’re being asked to make financial sacrifices and changes in lifestyle when they know the impact of global emissions is minimal”.
Read the full story by The Independent’s political editor David Maddox here:
Cabinet minister calls Blair's attack on government 'valid and important contribution' to debate
10:25Sir Tony Blair’s attack on “irrational” net zero strategies is a “valid and important contribution” to the debate, the Environment Secretary has said.
Steve Reed defended Sir Tony on Wednesday, after the former prime minister said the government’s current approach “isn’t working”.
Mr Reed told Times Radio he does not agree that Sir Tony’s intervention is a “public tantrum”.
The minister said: “He’s making a valid and important contribution to a very significant debate that we’re having.
“I agree with much of what he said, but not absolutely every word and dot and comma of it.”
Why are these local elections important?
09:56 , Athena StavrouOn Thursday, millions of voters across England will take to the polls in local elections.
The elections are important as they mark the first major test of public opinion under Sir Keir Starmer’s premiership.
Local and mayoral contests can reflect attitudes towards neighbourhood concerns such as potholes and bin collections, but they can also indicate where parties stand nationally.
Polling released on Tuesday indicated Reform was leading nationally - with the elections potentially propelling the party from the fringes to one challenging for power.
Mapped: Where local elections are taking place tomorrow
09:44 , Athena Stavrou
What to expect in the final day of local election campaigning
09:16 , Athena StavrouCampaigning for the local elections has entered its final day, as politicians and candidates make their closing pitches to voters before the polls open across England on Thursday.
At 12pm, Sir Keir Starmer will face his final PMQs before the ahead of the first major test of his premiership.
In the afternoon, Labour’s Angela Rayner will visit South Yorkshire, while Lib Dem leader Sir Ed will visit Tunbridge Wells.
Meanwhile, Nigel Farage is expected to attend a Reform UK campaign event in Stafford this evening - before the party is expected to gain hundreds of council seats tomorrow.
Analysis: Kemi Badenoch in last ditch effort to win over Reform voters
09:05 , Athena StavrouThe Independent’s political correspondent Millie Cooke reports:
Kemi Badenoch appears to be well aware that Thursday will be a bruising night for the Tories.
If Tory peer and pollster Lord Hayward is to be trusted, they could lose more than 500 of the 1,000 local authority seats they are defending.
But, take one look at the Tory leader’s interview with BBC 5Live, and its clear she does not plan to go without a fight.
Not only did she tell the station that she wants a statue of Margaret Thatcher erected outside parliament, she also attempted to beat Nigel Farage at his own game saying she “absolutely” supports Trump-style mass deportations – a policy that even the Reform leader himself has stopped short of supporting.
Reform standing the most candidates in local elections
08:54 , Athena StavrouA total of 1,641 council seats across the 23 authorities are up for grabs on Thursday.
Reform is standing 1,631 candidates, according analysis of nominations data, more than either Labour or the Conservatives.
The Conservatives have 1,596 candidates (97.3 per cent of seats) while Labour has 1,543 (94 per cent), while further behind are the Liberal Democrats, with 1,396 candidates (85.1 per cent), and the Greens, with 1,183 (72.1 per cent).
Voters deserting Labour and Tories as Reform to claim hundreds of seats at local elections, top pollster says
08:31 , Athena StavrouFewer people than ever are prepared to vote Tory or Labour as Reform look set to claim hundreds of seats at this week’s local elections, polling guru Professor Sir John Curtice has said.
Speaking exclusively to The Independent at the weekend, Prof Curtice said less than half of voters are telling pollsters they will vote for one of the two main parties, in a historic shift in voting patterns.
He said: “Fewer than half of the people who tell pollsters how they are going to vote say they are going to vote either Conservative or Labour. It has never been quite that low before.”
The Independent’s political correspondent Archie Mitchell reports:
Voters deserting Labour and Tories for Reform, top pollster says
How many council seats are in play in local elections?
08:09 , Andy GregorySome 1,641 council seats are up for grabs on Thursday, across 23 local authorities, while six mayoralties are also being contested.
These are the first major electoral tests for the parties since last July's general election, which saw Labour win a majority of seats in the House of Commons.
Race for Runcorn by-election intensifies as national polling gives Reform edge over Labour
08:06 , Andy GregoryAlongside local elections, the by-election in Runcorn and Helsby will see Nigel Farage’s party trying to overturn Labour’s victory last summer, in a vote triggered after Mike Amesbury received a suspended prison sentence for punching a man.
Luke Tryl of More in Common said on Tuesday that Reform should win the contest if their polling figures are correct.
If they do not win, Mr Tryl believes it could suggest two things: firstly that enthusiasm for the party is being overstated by polling, or secondly, that their operation of getting people out on polling day is not as good as other parties.
“We know that Labour in particular in general – not always – tends to have a better get out the vote operation on the ground,” Mr Tryl added.
New polling released by YouGov on Tuesday indicated Reform are continuing to lead Labour nationally, with Mr Farage’s party sitting on 26 per cent, up one per cent on the previous week, and Sir Keir Starmer’s party stuck on 23 per cent, with the Tories on 20.
‘Disillusionment’ a primary driver ahead of local elections, pollster warns
07:59 , Andy GregoryLuke Tryl, executive director at More in Common, has warned that “disillusionment” is a primary driver ahead of the local elections.
“I don’t think I’m exaggerating to say that the groups that we did over the past week are some of the most disillusioned, disappointed, disaffected that we've run,” said Mr Tryl.
“There was a real sense that people keep demanding change from politics and they're not getting that change, and that they are as a result not just thinking things are bad, but starting to lose faith in the inability of the system to change things.”
Among people who are considering voting Reform, Mr Tryl suggested, there is a feeling of “we may as well roll the dice on getting something different”.
Farage's Reform UK expected to win hundreds of seats in local elections
07:57 , Andy GregoryThere are rising concerns that Reform UK is on the cusp of a major breakthrough in this week’s local elections, following “deep disillusionment” with Labour and the Tories.
Nigel Farage’s party is expected to win a parliamentary by-election and two mayoral contests as well as take hundreds of seats across England on Thursday.
Polling by More in Common showed Labour on 18 per cent, behind Reform on 26 per cent and the Conservatives on 25 per cent, in the areas where elections are taking place.
The poll, which also suggests that Reform voters are the most keen to send a national message in the local elections, was commissioned as part of Channel 4 News live special ‘Election 2025: The Debate’.
Tory, Lib Dem and Labour voters said they thought competence to run the council was the most important issue at stake on Thursday, a reason cited by 47 per cent of those voting Conservative.
But among those intending to cast their ballot for Reform, the most important issue was national policies on immigration, with 67 per cent highlighting it as their main reason for backing the party.
Read more details in this report.
Britons name ‘none of the above’ as most popular candidate before local elections
07:54 , Andy GregoryThe most popular political leader is “none of the above” a new poll shows just hours before voters go to the polls in the local elections.
Ahead of Thursday’s local elections, polling company More In Common asked voters who they thought would be most effective at governing the country with 41 per cent responding: “None of the above.”
The second most popular choice was Mr Farage with 23 per cent, followed by Keir Starmer on 19 per cent, Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch with 8 per cent, the Lib Dem’s Ed Davey on 6 per cent. The Green’s co-leaders, Carla Denyer and Adrian Ramsay, last with 2 per cent.
Overall, the poll showed Labour on 18 per cent, behind Reform on 26 per cent and the Conservatives on 25 per cent, in the areas where elections are taking place.
Kate Devlin and Alicja Hagopian report:
Britons name ‘none of the above’ as most popular candidate before local elections
Good morning, we’ll be using this blog to bring you the latest updates on the upcoming local elections as the final day of campaigning gets under way.
