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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Politics
Andy Sawford

Local elections 2011: eleven councils to watch

What will Birmingham council look like after the local elections?
What will Birmingham council look like after the local elections? Photograph: THE TRAVEL LIBRARY / Rex Features

Each year Andy Sawford, chief executive of the LGIU profiles 50 councils where the local elections could lead to a change in council control. Here we feature eleven to watch (because we couldn't stop at 10).

Birmingham, the biggest local authority in England, is currently run by a Conservative and Lib Dem coalition. Labour is already the largest party and will hope to make gains, but the council is likely to remain in no overall control

Brighton and Hove always produces interesting and sometimes surprising results. It is now a four way contest, with the Greens featuring strongly. With every seat up for grabs tomorrow, anything could happen.

Calderdale is a rare Lib Dem and Labour administration. The council make up is intriguing, with 21 Conservatives, 17 Lib Dems and 10 Labour. Could the Conservatives snatch control?

Dudley, the Conservatives have a good majority and are likely to hold on to control. With only a third of seats up for grabs tomorrow Labour would need to make spectacular gains in order to snatch control. If that happens, it will be one of the stories of the night.

Guildford is a traditional Lib Dem and Conservative battleground and it will be interesting to see what happens here. The Conservatives currently have a small majority.

Kirklees council is about as hung as it gets, with 19 Conservatives, 24 Labour, 20 Lib Dems and 6 others. Currently in Labour minority control, they will hope to make gains. This is always an interesting council to watch.

Liverpool switched from Lib Dem to Labour control last year. The Lib Dem Leader stepped down last week unexpectedly. Another nationally prominent Lib Dem is Cllr Richard Kemp, who has fired many warning shots across the bows of the coalition government. If the Lib Dems lose big in Liverpool tomorrow night it could fuel grassroots unrest.

Newcastle is the big fight of the night, with Labour hoping to gain enough seats to win control from the Lib Dems for the first time in many years. The Lib Dems are defending 16 seats, Labour are defending 9. Labour would need to make a net gain of 6 seats to win. This is a nail biter for Nick Clegg and Ed Miliband.

Northampton was a Lib Dem gain at the last election, in one of the big stories of the 2007 elections where Labour was reduced to only 5 seats. If the pendulum swings back the Lib Dems could lose control of the council.

Southampton is home to two Labour MPs but a Conservative council. Whatever happens tomorrow, with only a third of the seats up for election, and the Conservatives having 28 of the 48 seats overall, they look likely to remain in the driving seat.

Do you agree with Andy's analysis? Which are your councils to watch? Tell us in the comments.

Andy Sawford is chief executive of the LGIU. Read his full list of 50 councils to watch here.

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