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Liverpool Echo
Liverpool Echo
Sport
Josh Williams

Liverpool must face the facts over Timo Werner problem at Chelsea

Liverpool's links to Timo Werner last summer were no secret; Jurgen Klopp looked to have developed a relationship with the player, and Werner's interest in a potential move to Merseyside was very public.

The global pandemic which started around that period forced transfer plans into doubt, with the Reds deciding to take a pass while Chelsea opted to pay much of the German's transfer fee up front to RB Leipzig.

Liverpool instead made their move for Diogo Jota who has experienced an encouraging first campaign at Anfield, but it is interesting how two of his offensive teammates have suffered from a problem that has been shared by Werner at Stamford Bridge.

Sadio Mane ranks sixth in the Premier League at present for total shots having attempted to score 83 times, followed by Roberto Firmino in eighth and Werner in 11th; each player has been heavily involved with concluding the moves constructed by their teammates.

However, all three have encountered major problems when it comes to converting those efforts into goals by actually finding the back of the net.

Werner was criticised on Tuesday night for failing to score against Real Madrid from close range, and just days earlier, Firmino and Mane failed to find the net against Newcastle United, resulting in a 1-1 draw for the Reds.

The extent of their finishing problems can be captured using Expected Goals.

The metric can offer an insight into finishing by placing a value on shots based on how likely they are to be scored according to historical data; the value is determined by a number of factors including shot location, body part used to take the shot and the position of the goalkeeper amongst other aspects.

A penalty kick is typically awarded 0.76 xG - for example - because penalties are scored around 76% of the time.

According to Expected Goals, Firmino has been presented with shots worth roughly 11.3 non-penalty goals in the Premier League this season, but he's bagged just six goals which highlights an underperformance of 5.3 goals.

Underperformance generally indicates that a player's finishing has been to a below-average standard, with Firmino's 5.3 goals below expectation ranking him as the biggest underperformer in the division this season.

Incredibly, Mane places second on the list having underperformed by 5.2 goals, followed by Jamie Vardy and then - coincidentally - Werner in fourth place.

The German striker has been expected to score around 10.7 non-penalty goals so far, but he's underperformed by 4.7 goals having scored only six times.

The finishing over and under-performance of Premier League players this season is pictured below, with Mane, Firmino and Werner placed at the very bottom.

Premier League players ranked according to finishing performance above and below Expected Goals this season (@DistanceCovered)

*A high-quality version of the above graphic can be viewed here.

Jota and Mohamed Salah, by contrast, have overperformed with their finishing this season, but nowhere near enough to the extent that Firmino and Mane have underperformed at the opposite end of the scale.

Klopp should almost consider himself lucky, as it remains to be seen where Liverpool would be positioned in the table if three of the top four underperforming finishers had been fielded by the Reds this season.

Mane, Werner and Firmino should all recover and return to a normal finishing level eventually but right now, the three forwards are very much together with their misfortune.

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