Fresh off their standout 2-0 victory against RB Leipzig in the Champions League, Liverpool will be heading into this weekend’s Merseyside derby with a renewed confidence.
Prior to that fixture, the Reds had lost three consecutive matches which forced Jurgen Klopp to concede that his side would not reclaim their Premier League crown this year.
Yet, they remain in a fight to secure a place inside the top four, and one of their rivals for a Champions League spot are the old enemy, Everton.
The Blues have on the surface had an impressive campaign under Carlo Ancelotti and currently find themselves five points off fourth with games in hand. They also boast the fourth-best away record in the division having lost just twice on their travels in the league all season.
Of course despite this, Everton will travel across Stanley park with the burden of no victory at Anfield since 1999, and their recent feel-good factor did take a knock with a poor home defeat to relegation-threatened Fulham on Sunday night.
Furthermore, even despite their good points return, victories have rarely been convincing from a scoreline point of view.
Eight of the eleven in the league so far have been by just a one-goal margin, that’s the joint-highest number of one goal margined wins in the league. Their underlying numbers across the board look fairly unremarkable this season too.
They rank 16th for shots attempted per 90 and 12th for shots faced per 90. They also rank 12th in terms of Non-penalty Expected Goals (NPxG) and 13th for NPxG-against (NPxGA). These are traditionally numbers you’d expect from a side loitering anywhere from 13th to 9th, not one chasing Champions League football.
Not dominating games and leaving them in the balance means that you’re vulnerable to moments of brilliance from the opposition, individual errors from your own players or officiating mistakes.
These variables are often absorbed when you better dominate matches, yet tend to prove more costly in terms of results when you don’t.
This problem of leaving too many games in the balance felt like one Marco Silva’s Everton side faced all too often, and his xG averages for his final 42 league games in charge compared to Ancelotti’s first 42 in charge look strikingly similar, as highlighted in the below.
A key difference between the two though is that Ancelotti has been landing on the right side of the results, whilst Silva often ended up on the wrong side.
What the above tells us then is that Everton might not be performing as well as their record suggests, however, irrespective of this, they still pose threats in areas Liverpool need to be aware of.
One part of their game that they’re thriving in under Ancelotti this season is set-pieces. They’ve scored the joint second-highest number of set-pieces in the league, and this is relevant given that Liverpool have conceded the joint fourth-highest number of goals from set-pieces so far.
Ancelotti’s side of course profited from a set-piece goal in the meeting between the two earlier in the season and without Virgil Van Dijk and other key defenders, the Reds do look more vulnerable from these dead ball situations.
Therefore overall, you can conclude that Liverpool should be fairly confident of getting a result against their neighbours who you could argue have enjoyed better results than their performances have merited.
However, the visitors still pose a threat in key areas and Klopp’s side will have to match them in these departments or risk paying a costly price.
