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Liverpool Echo
Liverpool Echo
Sport
Matt Addison & David Alexander Hughes & Josh Williams

Liverpool given Champions League reset chance but Jurgen Klopp has fresh problem

Liverpool's troubles since the turn of the year in the Premier League have been well-documented, with goals against being conceded regularly, and no goal scored at Anfield from open play in 2021.

But up until the past two matches, the underlying numbers behind the dropped points pointed to positives; while Liverpool have been losing, there was enough evidence statistically to suggest that it would, at some point this season, change.

In recent games, however, that has not necessarily been the case, with the numbers for fixtures against Chelsea and Fulham - both 1-0 home defeats - painting a slightly more alarming picture.

"It often feels like the same game on repeat at the moment," said David Hughes on the Analysing Anfield podcast.

"But Chelsea bypassed the press really easily, which I can’t remember happening even when Liverpool haven’t been playing well.

"Chelsea look a really good side and they were more dangerous - the game only finished 1-0 but as the game was progressing, it did not feel like Liverpool were going to get back into it.

"That is the theme at the moment and it was a repeat against Fulham.

"The attack just feels very sterile and it is not coming naturally.

"Players do not seem to know where the space is and the accumulated expected goals (xG) from those two games is about 1.3 - that is so low for a team as good as Liverpool."

"This is a tricky one for me," added Josh Williams.

Listen to the latest Analysing Anfield podcast by clicking HERE

"It felt like we have been backing Liverpool in their tricky period and saying ‘it will turn’, but the past two games, Liverpool have deserved to lose both, and that is worrying.

"Liverpool were well beaten against Chelsea. They took seven shots and Chelsea took 12.

"The xG per shot for Liverpool in that game was 0.04 (the average shot that Liverpool took had a four per cent chance of going in) and Chelsea posted 0.1 (a 10 per cent chance of finding the net).

"Against Fulham, Liverpool took 16 shots. Fulham only took 10 but Liverpool’s xG per shot was 0.06 and Fulham’s was double at 0.12.

"The way we have been looking at Liverpool’s run of form is to say that if the matches were played 100 times, Liverpool would be fine in most cases.

"But for two consecutive games against Chelsea and Fulham, the probability is that if the matches are played exactly the same, Liverpool lose more than they win.

"UnderStat provides a general probability of each team losing a game, drawing a game, or winning a game.

"Against Fulham, Liverpool, based on the shots of both teams, had a 16 per cent of winning the game, 27 per cent chance of a draw and a 57 per cent chance of losing the game.

"Against Chelsea, it was even worse: six per cent chance of winning, 27 per cent of drawing, and a 67 per cent chance of losing."

While in the Premier League, Liverpool's troubles seemingly have turned even worse - even with the caveat of a much-changed starting XI against Fulham - there is still some hope.

"We have momentum in the Champions League," Klopp said on Tuesday.

In that competition, Liverpool have only played once since their terrible run began, winning 2-0 against RB Leipzig.

In that game, Liverpool's xG was 1.45 to Leipzig's 0.93, and while a better performance from Julian Nagelsmann's side can be expected in Budapest, the Reds need simply to do enough to progress.

In short, the short-term Premier League outlook remains worrying.

But in a fresh competition, just five games away from the final, Liverpool have a chance to reset.

Fail to do that, though, and the numbers suggest it could be an even more painful final three months of the season.

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