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Liverpool Echo
Liverpool Echo
Sport
Josh Williams

Liverpool 23-goal advantage returns against Arsenal with League Cup debut

Alisson Becker has had quite the impact on Liverpool since making a high-profile move from AS Roma in 2018, but he could be set to make a debut on Thursday night.

Incredibly, the Brazilian hasn't yet appeared in the EFL Cup for the Reds, with Jurgen Klopp typically allowing one of his understudies to play in those matches.

This week, Liverpool have a semi-final against Arsenal in the tournament, with Alisson set to feature according to Klopp's pre-match words.

“Caoimh is the goalkeeper for this competition but there is a chance Ali will play tomorrow just because of the situation we were in,” he said. “I think he needs the game now. We all need to make sure the boys have as much rhythm as they can get."

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Although Caoimhin Kelleher's showings have been impressive whenever he's appeared, the Irishman is not yet at the level of Liverpool's no.1, who ranks amongst the elite in recent years.

It can be difficult to truly capture the influence of a goalkeeper, but Expected Goals (xG) can be applied in order to gauge some form of understanding.

A metric called Post-Shot Expected Goals can be applied to goalkeepers as it specifically focuses on shots that hit the target and takes into account the quality and trajectory of the shot, thus relating to shot-stopping.

A goalkeeper who saves more than expected over an extended period of time is deemed to have above average shot-stopping ability, whereas a goalkeeper who saves less than expected is deemed to have the opposite.

Since 2017, Alisson has been expected to concede roughly 142.5 goals based on the shots on target that he's faced in the Premier League and Serie A.

In reality, though, he's conceded just 119 times - excluding own goals - which means he's overperformed expectation by 23.5 goals.

His degree of overperformance is outstanding, especially in comparison to his peers from across Europe's top five leagues.

Over the same period, Ederson has overperformed by just 5.4 goals which is a respectable amount, but the Manchester City goalkeeper cannot compete with his fellow compatriot.

David de Gea has overperformed by 16.5 goals over the period in question, and Jordan Pickford has actually underperformed by 1.6 goals, which suggests that Everton's no.1 has saved shots to a below average standard.

Few are capable of matching Alisson's quality when tasked with preventing shots from turning into goals, and Liverpool could be set to benefit from his presence in their first semi-final of the season.

With Alisson between the sticks against Arsenal on Thursday night, the Reds have every chance of progressing to their first EFL Cup final in 10 years.

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