DES MOINES -- Repeat after me: this will not be a declaration of victory. Most definitely not. Yes, it's true that Barack Obama is scheduled to appear at a major rally, here in the capital of Iowa, in a few hours' time. And it's true that Obama's campaign staff have been signalling for some days now that they'll be considering tonight victory night, since once the results of the Kentucky and Oregon votes are in, their candidate looks certain to have a majority of pledged (non-super) delegates. And, yes, it's significant that they've chosen Iowa, famous for its many square miles of farmland and white people, where Obama's win in January threw a spanner in the whole Clinton Inevitability thing. But now Team Obama is bending over backwards to make it clear that he won't actually, like, declare victory, because that would look high-handed. (And if there's one thing Barack Obama never does, it's act condescendingly. Got that, sweetie?) This is, of course, an ingenious plan, emerging directly no doubt from David Axelrod's Moustache of Ingenuity, since it allows Obama to avoid triumphalism, to stress party unity, to seem like such a shoo-in he doesn't even need to declare victory, and to have the media report tonight as if it were a victory celebration after all. Anyway, the last polls close in Kentucky in a few minutes, so forget your cares, pull up a chair, and join Guardian America as we liveblog the night away in a theoretically entertaining fashion.
The basics The polls in western Kentucky close at 7pm eastern time; the polls in eastern Kentucky closed at 6. The polls in Oregon don't close until 11pm eastern, mainly because 85% of the state's population is a member of a Portland-based indie band that was up really late at a gig last night and didn't get up till midday. A Suffolk University poll gives Clinton a 26-point lead in Kentucky, at 51 to 25, but shows Obama's lead in Oregon narrowing to four points, 45 to 41. After the 103 delegates at stake in the two states tonight are awarded, Obama will almost certainly have a majority, though not enough to win the nomination; Clinton will be looking for a Kentucky mega-landslide in order to sway more superdelegates and to give more fuel to her argument that Florida and Michigan should be counted.
7.15pm (all times eastern): ...And off we go: just in case you doubted it, the major networks all call Kentucky for Clinton. Exit polls suggest that the vast majority of Clinton voters there wouldn't back Obama in a general election, reports CNN. Here's more on the Kentucky call from Ewen MacAskill and Suzanne Goldenberg.
7.52pm With almost half the Kentucky votes in, the results are at Clinton 58% Obama 38%. Marc Ambinder has a sensible new post up in response to a question that's both a Hillary Clinton talking-point and a complaint of Barack Obama supporters: Why are the superdelegates waiting?
It's a glorious early-summer evening here in Des Moines, in the shadow of the state capitol, which is lucky since tonight's event is an entirely open-air affair, and a lot of expensive television equipment (and my fantastic new laptop) is going to get very wet if it rains. Since I know these primary-night liveblogs would be nothing without a campaign food update, let me reveal that I am eating a ham and cheese focaccia sandwich, which might prompt me to make a sarcastic comment about the latte-sipping elitism of the Obama campaign, except that I bought it from a sandwich shop which, to the owners' delight, has found itself right in the middle of the press area here. I note that several members of the Japanese media have arranged for the delivery of a large tray of sushi.
8.06pm Kentucky: Clinton 62% Obama 34%, with 55% of precincts reporting. The word in Des Moines, I should add, is that Obama's speech tonight will be significantly altered as a result of the news of Senator Ted Kennedy's brain tumour, which has dominated the news in the US during the day. Apart from anything else, it'll be another pressure against too much triumphalism.
8.21pm While the band in Des Moines plays Super Freak, Clinton approaches the podium in Kentucky. She calls Kennedy her "friend and inspiration" and repeats her claim to be winning in the popular vote. (You know, the one that includes Florida and Michigan, and none of the caucuses.) She's leading in Kentucky Clinton 65% Obama 31%, with 74% of precincts reporting, which may not match her West Virginia lead last week but is, of course, plenty for her to claim a Kentucky landslide, for what that's worth. The crowds are beginning to gather here in Des Moines.
Clinton promises to keep going "until we have a nominee -- whoever she may be," which might be an artful reference to her slip of the tongue last week when she referred to the next president as 'he'.
8.45pm Now the warm-up band are playing Sexual Healing. Well, that adds a whole new tone to the evening. In Kentucky, it's Clinton 65% Obama 30% with 89% of precincts reporting. (Still some time to go before we get any hint from Oregon, by the way, where all the voting is done by post which, as I understand it, means the results should start follow rapidly after the close of polls.) A sizeable crowd is waiting in Des Moines to hear Obama not declare victory, though it's nothing like the size of the Portland crowd, which was, of course, an evil liberal plot masterminded by The Decemberists.
9.10pm What's that you say? You'd like to know more about the breakdown of the vote based on exit polls in Kentucky and Oregon, particularly the complex question of Obama's ability to win the support of working-class Democrats? Why, then, read this, and also this. (The answer is, it depends on geography.) In Kentucky we're still at Clinton 65% Obama 30% with 97% of the votes in. In Des Moines, the sharpshooters have just arrived with their rifles. I know I shouldn't really think they're cool just because they have big guns and dress in black, but I do.
9.30pm OK, so based on the Kentucky results -- even though he's trailing there -- Obama can now claim a majority of pledged delegates, according to CNN's estimates detailed on John King's magical electronic map of many colours. And thus history has been made. You read it here first! I mean, unless you were watching CNN or something.
9.37pm Here in Des Moines we are enjoying approximately 20 minutes of a local marching band's drum 'n' glockenspiel awesomeness. And when I say "enjoying", I mean -- well, but 20 minutes? They're showing no sign of stopping, either. (To be fair, they're out of my sightline, so maybe they're accompanied by some astonishing gymnastics. When I tried to go and see, a super-officious Obama volunteer blocked my path. I tried distraction techniques but they failed.)
9.47pm Kentucky: Clinton 65% Obama 30% with 99% of precincts reporting. A margin this large has got to help Clinton's chances of a favourable ruling on Florida and Michigan on May 31 -- not that that will change the fact that Obama will be the nominee. It also means she doesn't need Michigan to be able to claim a majority in the popular vote, notes Marc Ambinder.
9.53pm Talking Points Memo has Clinton's speech in full, including her tribute to Ted Kennedy.
10.03pm ...The last 1% of the Kentucky precincts have reported, and you're not going to believe this, but -- no, that would be a stupid joke. And a mathematically inconceivable one. So that's it from Kentucky: Clinton 65% Obama 30%, with the rest of the votes presumably cast for still-on-the-ballot blast-from-the-recent-past John Edwards.
10.09pm And after a brief introduction from a local volunteer, here's Barack and Michele Obama. And their daughters. A rare full-family occasion, which adds to the sense of occasion. "I sure have a nice wife and family," he notes.
On Ted Kennedy: "You know, there is a spirit that brought us here tonight -- a spirit of change, and hope, and possibility. And there are few people in this country who embody that spirit more than our friend and our champion, Senator Edward Kennedy. He has spent his life in service to this country not for the sake of glory or recognition, but because he cares -- deeply, in his gut -- about the causes of justice, and equality, and opportunity. So many of us here have benefited in some way or another because of the battles he's waged, and some of us are here because of them. We know he is not well right now, but we also know that he's a fighter. And as he takes on this fight, let us lift his spirits tonight by letting Ted Kennedy know that we are thinking of him, that we are praying for him, that we are standing with him, and that we will be fighting with him every step of the way." Big cheers.
10.22pm The nomination is "within reach":
Many of you have been disappointed by politics and politicians... [but] in spite of all the doubt and disappointment -- or perhaps because of it -- you came out on a cold winter's night in January, in numbers this country has never seen, and you stood for change. And because you did, a few more stood up. And then a few thousand stood up. And then a few million stood up. And tonight, Iowa, in the fullness of spring... we have returned to Iowa with a majority of delegates elected by the American people, and you have put us within reach of the Democratic nomination for president of the United States of America.
Crowd ecstasy. I suspect that's as close as we'll get to a declaration of victory tonight.
10.24pm Graciousness time!
The road here has been long... partly because we've traveled it with one of the most formidable candidates to ever run for this office. In her 35 years of public service, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton has never given up on her fight for the American people, and tonight I congratulate her on her victory in Kentucky. We have had our disagreements during this campaign, but we all admire her courage, her commitment and her perseverance, and no matter how this primary ends, Senator Clinton has shattered myths and broken barriers and changed the America in which my daughters and your daughters will come of age.
And with that, the nominee-presumptive turns to John McCain. I think the general election campaign just began.
10.30pm And the finale:
Change is coming to America. It's the spirit that sent the first patriots to Lexington and Concord and led the defenders of freedom to light the way north on an Underground Railroad. It's what sent my grandfather's generation to beachheads in Normandy, and women to Seneca Falls, and workers to picket lines and factory fences. It's what led all those young men and women who saw beatings and billy clubs on their television screens to leave their homes, and get on buses, and march through the streets of Selma and Montgomery -- black and white, rich and poor.
Change is coming to America.
10.48pm I'll be back shortly with some indication of what happened in Oregon...
11.32pm Aaaargh, apologies for the belated update. The blogging software and I had a little disagreement. Anyway, the networks have called Oregon for Obama. It's Obama 58% Clinton 42% with 46% reporting, which so far is a significantly better margin for Obama than some of the most recent polls.
11.47pm It could be a long time before we have 100% of the Oregon votes, but I think it's pretty safe to sum up the night at this point. Clinton won Kentucky in a landslide, with the exit polls providing no comfort for Obama on the crucial question of his 'Appalachian Problem' -- or how a geographically specific subsection of the white working class seemingly just can't be persuaded to vote for him. Obama, meanwhile, carried Oregon by a comfortable margin -- beating Clinton, according to 'exit' polls (they're not technically exit polls, because the vote was postal) among men, women, and all age groups except the over-65s. Most momentously, Obama won a majority of pledged delegates, and in what I reckon was a well-judged speech here tonight in Des Moines lavished praise on Clinton, made clear that the argument from now on will be with McCain... and didn't declare victory. Not quite.
12.10am At the risk of linking to Talking Points Memo one too many times tonight, that's where you can watch video of Obama's speech.
12.30am With 55% of the votes in, a solid Obama lead is emerging in Oregon: Obama 58% Clinton 42%. As CNN moves into the witching hour known as "Now let's hand over to Larry King in Los Angeles", I'm calling it a night. Thanks for reading and commenting. And remember, the nomination race isn't over yet! I mean, sort of.
