Counting has resumed in the NSW election, and while Labor has won, whether it gets a majority in the lower house looks like it could come down to the wire.
Here's all the developments from Monday.
Key events
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That's all folks
By Paige Cockburn
So we end the day in a position not all that different to where we started.
The four seats where Labor still has a fighting chance are still too close to call.
Kiama was looking like Labor's best chance at grabbing a 46th seat but it's just narrowed in the last hour.
They are still ahead in Ryde but that lead has also diminished throughout the day.
The Libs have caught up in Terrigal and Miranda but lead by only a handful of votes in each.
Counting will continue until 7.00pm AEDT today.
Labor maintains they are still confident of getting to a majority but the question is when?
Election analyst Antony Green says it could be weeks, as only 56.8 per cent of votes have been counted so far.
If that's the case, it wouldn't be dissimilar to when former Labor premier Neville Wran had a two-week wait on the seat of Hurstville to be decided in 1976.
Patience is a virtue I guess!
Thanks for joining Riley and I today. Great to see so many of you submitting questions. Keep them coming tomorrow when we return for more blogging!
Epping voter says school policy changed his vote
By Paige Cockburn
Reporting by Dong Xing and Bang Xiao
John Huang, an IT specialist in his 50s living in Epping, told the ABC that education was the key factor driving him to vote Labor.
Epping has a significant number of voters from a Chinese-speaking background.
While Liberal candidate Dominic Perrottet is leading the count by 1,116 votes, the seat has recorded a swing of more than 8.5 per cent to Labor.
In July 2022 outgoing Education Minister Sarah Mitchell announced up to 20 per cent of places at selective schools would be set aside for disadvantaged students.
Although it wouldn't be a problem for his family, Mr Huang said the issue had concerned many of his friends living in the electorate.
"The selective school reform is flawed. There is more room for improvement," Mr Huang told the ABC.
"Is it possible to raise admissions for all students?"
More questions answered
By Riley Stuart
Thanks for taking the time to write in. Here's another few!
Josh has asked:
If Labor is ruled out of one of Kiama and Ryde does that mean we're heading for minority government?
It would definitley make it hard for Labor if it doesn't win those two seats.
Irenr has asked:
Any updates/details on how the Holsworthy electorate is looking?
Kenth has asked:
I was happy for my vote to exhaust. The major parties should t assume they will get my preference if I don't like their policies.
I'll take that as a (very spicy) comment, Kenth! 🌶️🌶️
Scott has asked:
Regarding the LC, I see Mark Latham is recorded as re-elected - did he not resign and then take the #2 place on the PHON ticket? I di t see that they have 2 people elected at this time.
Who knew there was so much interest in the upper house?! I'm a massive election nerd, so you're speaking my language. Mark Latham resigned half-way through his eight-year term but he's got top spot on One Nation's ticket. Former Labor MP Tania Mihailuk has the No.2 position. It's not yet clear whether she will get elected.
Interested onlooker has asked:
I noticed that seats like Castle Hill and Kellyvile - very safe Liberal - swung hard towards Labor, especially early on in the count on Saturday. Do you know why this is? Is this a long term trend in the Hills?
Righto, there could be a few things at play here, but I don't think any of them speak to a long-term trend in this part of Sydney. Castle Hill has never been won by Labor. It was the subject of a redistribution, which shaved a couple of percentage points of the margin notionally. The MP there, Ray Williams, moved seats to contest Kellyville, which can often create headaches for a party. After preferences, there's been an 11.8 per cent swing to Labor which might sound like a lot, but their primary cote in Castle Hill is still well down when compared to state-wide numbers. Kellyville is a new seat so it's a bit hard to provide definitive trends, but the pre-selection wrangling between David Elliott (former MP for the now-abolished seat of Baulkham Hills) and the original Liberal candidate, Noel McCoy, (who had his nomination rejected) wouldn't have helped.
Eveyn Wicks has asked:
When do preferences come into play. If the votes are really close for two candidates, are the preferences then allocated or discarded.
The preferences are calculated for every seat, whether it's close or not. It's how the final result is determined.
Marc has asked:
What happens if a candidate concedes defeat and then further counting results in them having received the majority of votes? Do they forfeit?
Good question. What the candidates say doesn't matter, it's really just what the results say that count. The winner takes it all, so to speak.
Kiama tightens
By Paige Cockburn
'Time was up' for the Liberals: Turnbull
By Paige Cockburn
Former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull told ABC Radio Sydney the NSW government was always going to struggle to win a fourth term.
"I think the achievements of the 12 years were considerable, but 12 years is a long time," he said. "Time was up."
"I don't think the Liberal Party should feel, you know, that they've been thrown out in disgrace or anything like that. But there is no doubt that the brand is suffering."
He says people under 50 and women feel the party doesn't represent them.
🚨 ABC predicts teal independent will win Wollondilly 🚨
By Riley Stuart
Independent Judy Hannan is set to win the Southern Highlands electorate of Wollondilly, defeating Liberal MP Nathaniel Smith.
ABC chief elections analyst Antony Green says counting of pre-poll votes taken at the Wollondilly Electoral Manager's office have boosted Ms Hannan to 53.3 per cent in the two-canidate preferred race, with 61 per cent of the vote counted.
The Bowral Early Voting Centre has yet to report, and independents traditionally poll poorly with absent votes, but Ms Hannan's lead appears large enough to win Wollondilly.
Ms Hannan was a Liberal candidate for Auburn and Granville in the early 2000s, but after contesting Wollondilly as an independent in 2011, was barred from re-joining the Liberal Party.
Ms Hannan finished second contesting Wollondilly in 2019 and has the backing of Climate 200 in her 2023 campaign.
There were five teal candidates contesting the NSW election, and so far, Ms Hannan is the only one to win a seat.
Majority government still just out of reach
By Paige Cockburn
'Anyone hiring?'
By Paige Cockburn
Liberal rising star James Griffin has ruled himself out of the race for leadership of the party.
Dominic Perrottet resigned from the top job on Saturday night, and, yesterday, outgoing treasurer Matt Kean said he wouldn't nominate to replace him.
Mr Griffin, who was environment minister in the Perrottet government, has now followed suit, saying he'll support whoever the party room decides.
In a statement, former attorney-general Mark Speakman said he'd have more to say on the leadership race shortly.
Meanwhile, the days of this very popular Twitter account (followed by a lot of people at Macquarie Street) may be numbered...
Liberals pull ahead in Terrigal
By Riley Stuart
Well my post from 10 minutes ago dated quickly didn't it.
The Liberals have pulled ahead in Terrigal. MP Adam Crouch now leads by 40 votes with 67 per cent counted. I'm expecting that slender advantage to grow as the days go on.
Labor has never won this Central Coast seat.
Antony Green answers your questions
By Riley Stuart
One of the best things about working in Sydney for the ABC is getting to chat to Antony Green every damn day.
I'm doing my best to answer as many questions as I can but some are beyond my pay grade, so our chief elections analyst has had a crack at these ones.
Mitz has asked:
Sorry if you already answered this, but why is LC Vote only 30% of the enrolled voters? I thought that participation was closer to 90% across all jurisdictions in Aust, except for NT (where it’s 75%)…34% is very low!
Antony Green says: It is only 30 per cent because only a third of the votes have been counted. It will approach 90 per cent by the end of the count.
Cate has asked:
What is the likelihood of getting rid of the confusing 'optional preferential voting' system in NSW, making preference system uniform across Australia? What needs to be done to change it?
Antony Green says: Getting rid of optional preferential voting requires a referendum as its use is entrenched in the NSW state constitution.
David has asked:
Counting seems very slow today. Why?
Antony Green says: There are updates arriving every five minutes, each usually having updates to two or three electorates. They are mainly counting pre-poll voting centres today, large centres that take time to count. There are also fewer counting staff after election day. And in the close seats, the count is done slowly so that scrutineers can observe every ballot paper.
Terrigal on a knife edge
By Riley Stuart
Labor's Sam Boughton started the day about 700 votes in front of Liberal MP Adam Crouch, but that's since been cut to 414 with about 60 per cent of the vote counted.
Labor has never won Terrigal and Boughton's results on Saturday night were jaw-on-the-floor stuff. The swing in Terrigal is more than double the state-wide number.
Postal votes are going to favour the Liberal candidate. It's going to be very interesting to see where this one lands. It will take days, so strap yourselves in. 🍿🍿
'I had to Google where the treasury is': future treasurer
By Paige Cockburn
Incoming Treasurer Daniel Mookhey has just fronted the press.
He said tomorrow Labor's interim ministry, consisting of the senior leadership team, would be sworn in by the Governor. This will end the caretaker period and allow Labor to make decisions.
"This is important to allow new government to get access to public service departments and commence the formal briefing process."
He said Labor's priorities were to receive departmental briefings on flood recovery in northern NSW and the Menindee fish kill.
Mr Mookhey said they were also focused on the problems that emerged across the rail network on election night.
He noted that the outgoing government had been "gracious" in the transition period and assisted Labor greatly over the last 24 hours.
But he said one teething issue had emerged this morning.
"I had to Google where the treasury is," he said.
"I now know where the treasury is headquartered and I look forward to meeting them."
Greens in line for three seats
By Riley Stuart
It's starting to look like The Greens are going to hold all three of their lower house seats.
They've already retained Ballina and Newtown, and while their margin was been slashed in Balmain, candidate Kobi Shetti is ahead by about 800 votes.
The ABC's election computer is saying it's "likely" The Greens will win Balmain. There's still plenty of counting to go there, however.
Greens MP Jamie Parker had represented the seat since 2011, and had held it on a comfortable margin of 10 per cent, but his retirement made the contenst much closer.
Labor's 'new working class' helped secure victory
By Paige Cockburn
The fact Labor flipped several seats in Western Sydney is no coincidence, according to some election analysts.
Seats such as Camden, Parramatta, Riverstone, Penrith and East Hills are home to large proportions of public sector workers, a third of whom are women.
Kos Samaras, a former Victorian Labor deputy campaign director, spoke about this "new working class" with reporter Catherine Hanrahan.
Minns listened to Miley Cyrus to calm his nerves
By Paige Cockburn
Chris Minns has told KIIS Sydney that on the night of the election he dodged the media camped outside the front of his house to squeeze in a jog.
"I said to Anna (his wife) I'm going to bounce off the walls if I have to wait for the results to come in."
So he asked his back neighbor Tim if he could jump the fence to avoid the cameras and head off on a run.
"At 5.59pm I hoofed over the fence, [Tim] took a selfie with me, I put on my Airpods and yeah I went for a run."
He revealed his track of choice was Flowers by Miley Cyrus.
He said it will be his last run without security for some time.
Your questions answered
By Riley Stuart
I'm going to get through as many of these as I can.
Nich has asked:
The list at the bottom of the LC results page seems to be missing the elected Greens Legislative Councillors. Is it safe to assume Cate Faehrmann has been re-elected and Dr Amanda Cohn elected as well?
Nich well spotted, Antony is going to update his LC results page to include the two Greens you've mentioned.
Sally Dolman has asked:
Why were we told yesterday that the Labour Party had secured 47 seats on the ABC election coverage.
I'm not sure exactly what coverage you're referring to but it's highly likely Labor will secure 47 seats.
Stuart has asked:
The question regarding counting referred to the lower house, though your answer was all about the upper house. Can you please explain when or if counting in the lower house has commenced?
Yes, counting in the lower house has recommenced.
Grigio has asked:
Looks like a high percentage of exhausted votes in some electorates? Would all of those people have known that the vote wouldn't be counted if their preferred candidate wasn't in the top 2?
You'd have to ask them! NSW's optional preferential voting system means more votes exhaust. It really depends how politically engaged people are.
Anne has asked:
Any update on Goulburn?
Yes! About an hour ago, Liberal MP Wendy Tuckerman was ahead by 149 votes.
Liberals pull ahead in Miranda
By Riley Stuart
At the start of the day, Labor's Simon Earle was in front of Liberal MP Eleni Petinos in Miranda, a seat in Sydney's south, by about 150 votes.
The latest update, however, has Ms Petinos ahead by 71 votes, with about 55 per cent of the ballots counted.
Given the trend of postal votes favouring the Liberals, you'd expect to see Ms Petinos extend that lead as the days go on. That's just a prediction, at this stage, though.
Independent blames loss on voting system
By Paige Cockburn
Just off the back of that news about Willoughby...
Yesterday Larissa Penn said if NSW didn't have optional preferential voting it would have been a clear win for her.
NSW is the only Australian jurisdiction where voters can simply put a number 1 next to their top pick and not preference any other candidates.
Ms Penn said this system needs to be scrapped.
"Surely everyone’s voice (eg preference) should be heard in the final round of counting in a democracy and votes should not expire and be discarded?"
"Anyone who just voted 1 for Labor, Greens or Sustainable Australia Party had their votes discarded by the final round and sadly the word back from the booths is that the Liberals booth dominating "Just Vote 1” strategy has been effective in convincing voters from other parties to not follow their parties recommended how to vote."
📢 Liberals hold Willoughby 📢
By Paige Cockburn
ABC chief election analyst Antony Green has just called the north Sydney seat of Willoughby for the Liberals.
He says counting done in the Chatswood and North Willoughby early voting centres has now confirmed Liberal Tim James will hold the seat, defeating a strong challenge from Independent Larissa Penn.
Mr James succeeds former premier Gladys Berejiklian who held the seat from 2003 to 2021.
In other political appearances today...
By Paige Cockburn
Chris Minns may be the man of the moment in the state politics sphere, but there's a certain former president stealing some of that attention.
Former US president Barack Obama has touched down in Sydney ahead of a scheduled speaking tour.
Mr Obama flew into town yesterday with his wife Michelle on a private jet.
Mr Obama is set to speak at the city's An Evening with President Obama before heading to Melbourne.
