Job advertising fell again in September, pointing to an unemployment rate above five per cent in the coming months as a result of the coronavirus lockdowns in NSW, Victoria and the ACT.
The ANZ job ads series fell 2.8 per cent in September, the third consecutive monthly decline, but were still over 20 per cent higher than their pre-pandemic level.
"The cumulative decline of 6.8 per cent over the past three months is only a tenth the size of the 64.4 per cent plunge between February and May last year, during the national lockdown," ANZ senior economist Catherine Birch said.
"This is consistent with our expectation that the measured unemployment rate will only lift a little above five per cent later this year."
The jobless rate currently sits at 4.5 per cent.
Meanwhile, the prospect of leaving lockdowns has lifted the mood among Sydneysiders and Melburnians, but confidence in other parts of the country has turned sour.
Overall, the ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence index - a pointer to future household spending - rose 0.9 per cent in the past week.
It was the fourth consecutive weekly rise, taking the index to its highest level since mid-July, but at an index of 104.6 it is still some way off its long-run average of 112.5.
"With Sydney and Melbourne headed towards re-opening in the next few weeks, confidence increased in both cities by 4.4 per cent and 1.5 per cent respectively," ANZ head of Australian economics David Plank said.
However, confidence in regional Victoria fell by 4.1 per cent, and there was a 2.1 per cent decline in Adelaide, while Brisbane tumbled by nine per cent and Perth dropped by 6.2 per cent.
Separately, Australia's construction industry saw something of a bounce in September as strong engineering activity more than offset further declines in house building and commercial construction.
The Australian Industry Group/Housing Industry Association performance of construction index rose 14.9 points to 53.3 in September, with the move above 50 indicating the sector is back in expansion territory.
"Looking ahead, the further easing of restrictions, and the resumption of work put on hold should see more decisive improvement in the sector in the months ahead," Ai Group chief policy advisor Peter Burn said.
Economists expect the Reserve Bank of Australia will stick to its outlook of keeping the cash rate at a record low until 2024 after its monthly board meeting.
The so-called "shadow RBA board", comprising economists and Australian National University academics, are 100 per cent behind sticking to keeping the cash rate at a record low 0.1 per cent.
It says the lockdowns in the two most populous states, NSW and Victoria, have clearly stalled the economic recovery.
"But high vaccination rates, a phasing-out of stay-at-home orders, and the prospect of domestic, and even international, travel restrictions easing, should reignite the domestic economy heading into the Christmas period," it said.
