The lithium market has regained interest after the Trump administration confirmed it is weighing a stake in Lithium Americas (NYSE: LAC). While gold advances toward its second-best year on record, lithium, “the white gold,” has been mostly out of the spotlight.
Still, Lithium Americas has nearly doubled, opening at $3.24 per share on Monday, climbing as high as $7.72 intraday on Thursday, and ending last week at $6.32. Reports suggest Washington could seek up to a 10% equity stake in exchange for adjusting conditions tied to a $2.3 billion Department of Energy loan for the Thacker Pass project.
Nevada’s Thacker Pass is the top national resource. General Motors (NYSE: GM) holds a 38% stake in the project, expected to yield 40,000 tons of lithium carbonate annually in its first phase. That output would be enough for about 800,000 car batteries.
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By 2028, the project is expected to reach its full output of 66,000 tons, making it a key resource in the Western Hemisphere.
Momentum is also building in the Smackover Formation in northeast Texas, where a joint venture between Equinor (NYSE:EGNR) and Standard Lithium (AMEX:SLI) has reported some of the highest lithium-in-brine grades in North America.
The latest estimate shows that the broader formation could host over 4 million tons of lithium. The Franklin project alone contains 2.16 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent, with ambitions to scale output to more than 100,000 tons annually.
Brine concentrations of up to 806 mg/L showcase the region’s commercial promise. Equinor and Standard Lithium are now advancing exploration and infrastructure, viewing East Texas as a world-class resource for the energy transition.
Meanwhile, another potential world-class resource has emerged in the Northwest. The McDermitt Caldera, situated on the Oregon-Nevada border, is a world-class prospect resource, potentially containing between 20 and 40 million tons. Companies exploring the formation include HiTech Minerals Inc. (a subsidiary of Jindalee Resources), US Critical Metals (OTCQB: USCMF), and ACME Lithium (OTC: ACLHF).
Despite that estimate, environmental and cultural implications pose a significant risk. While proponents highlight the opportunity to reduce reliance on foreign resource supply, local communities and Indigenous groups warn of dangers to wildlife, water, and sacred sites.
“We need to do this the Oregon way – with full accountability and shared benefits,” Greg Smith, director of economic development in Malheur County, said per Earth.com.
Still, short-term market expectations remain tempered. Goldman Sachs forecasts that lithium prices will average $8,900 per ton in 2026, modestly below Monday’s spot levels of $9,150.
The bank expects oversupply pressures to keep the market down before a rebound starts in 2027. From there, Goldman expects prices to rise to $9,100 per ton and potentially to $9,500 per ton by 2028.
Yet, these prices remain significantly below the 2022 lithium bubble peak, when the metal traded at nearly $80,000 per ton. Therefore, a cost-conscious approach is essential when evaluating the true potential of these projects.
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Photo by Juan Roballo via Shutterstock
