It may sound counterintuitive but, before the first Test, the British & Irish Lions should be drawing inspiration from a bunch of New Zealanders in Bermuda. For those not tuned into this year’s America’s Cup, New Zealand’s yachtsmen have slogged through numerous tough knockout contests to face the defending champions and hosts Oracle Team USA in the final. And the latest? It is never over until the plump mermaid sings but the fancied Americans are a clear second, reduced to playing catch-up by their battle-hardened visitors.
If the Lions can do something similar on dry land and seize the initiative at Eden Park, it will certainly reflect well on northern hemisphere resolve. On paper, Warren Gatland’s squad should have no chance: it is less than a month since some of them met, their preparation time has been absurdly limited and they are up against the world’s best team at a venue where their hosts have not lost since 1994. The All Blacks tend not to allow such gilt-edged mugging invitations to pass them by.
And yet. To ride with the pride this week has been to detect within the 2017 Lions squad that most crucial of sporting emotions: genuine belief. It may be based more on hope – every New Zealand tour’s four-letter word – than expectation but it is there nonetheless. “If we click we’d be excited about what we can do,” said Conor Murray, the world-class Irish scrum-half. “We’ve all played in Eden Park and we know how tough it is to win here but if there ever was a team that has the potential …”
As rallying cries go it may be slightly modulated but Murray is right: this Lions Test team is arguably the strongest since 2001 and the whole squad’s dander is up following encouraging wins over the Crusaders, the Maori and the Chiefs. When it was put to the assistant coach, Rob Howley, that only one player in his starting XV – Anthony Watson – has scored a try on this tour, the former Lions scrum-half responded by pointing out the tourists have been held up over the line eight times in six matches. “If we weren’t creating line breaks I’d be a worried man but we’re creating a lot of opportunities,” said Howley. “When we create against the world champions we have to be clinical and ruthless.”
As Gatland has also been stressing, it is about being bold, courageous and assertive, rather than sitting back and awaiting occasional All Black mistakes. The first objective has to be to score 27 points or more. During Steve Hansen’s time in charge, the All Blacks’ Test record reads P69 W63 D2 L4. All four of those defeats came in relatively high-scoring games – 38-21, 27-25, 27-19 and 40-29 – in which their opponents rattled them for concerted periods. In the professional era, the Lions have won just six Tests and have scored at least 23 points in five of those games. The odd penalty and drop goal is going to be insufficient.
So the Lions have to go for it in the way that suits them best: not tossing the ball frantically wide but by kicking shrewdly, running straight and hard, being relentlessly accurate and not permitting the All Blacks cheap points on the counter. The rain that has been hammering down on Auckland for the past two days is forecast to cease a few hours prior to kick-off but the ball will probably still be greasy. The Lions do not want to be spilling it unnecessarily, least of all in their own 22.
Borrowing the physical, disciplined blueprint from the Crusaders and Maori games is the obvious start point: shoving the New Zealand scrum off their own ball is a fanciful vision but the lineout will be a critical area. The All Blacks should also not be suckered into pigeon-holing Peter O’Mahony as a standby captain of a disillusioned squad, the fate of Gareth Thomas in 2005. “Pete’s a hard player, he will try his best to lead by what he does on the pitch and people are going to follow him,” said Murray, O’Mahony’s team-mate at Munster.
It is an enticing combination: the defensive rigour and purpose of Saracens, the passion of Munster, a dash of Welsh hwyl and an injection of Leinster horsepower. It is also the Lions’ firm belief they have more depth on the bench and can neutralise the All Blacks’ ability to pull away in the final quarter. Johnny Sexton is set to be summoned in the third quarter, with Owen Farrell moving to 12, while Maro Itoje is also available to bring a fresh dimension. If the Lions are ahead when the cavalry arrive it really will be some finish.
Things could, of course, have unravelled long before then, as they did a dozen years ago in Christchurch when the Lions’ series hopes nosedived in parallel with their injured captain Brian O’Driscoll. The difference now is that the All Blacks’ aura is faintly diminished; the loss to Ireland in Chicago last November may have been dismissed as a blip by New Zealand fans but it has emboldened the Lions.
“One of the main things for me is that you’ve got to be confident against the All Blacks,” said Murray. “You’ve got to keep playing, you’ve got to keep attacking and stay in the game – not go into your shell. The challenge is to maintain that for 80 minutes.”
This is probably not the moment to mention the following statistic: the three Test referees in this series have collectively been in charge of the All Blacks 24 times, yielding 23 wins for the All Blacks and one draw. More depressing still has been the news the Lions manager, John Spencer, was shoved and abused by a drunk New Zealand supporter – thankfully without injury – while dining with his wife on Thursday. “I’ve spoken to John and it’s an isolated, disappointing incident,” reported Howley. “The majority of the New Zealand public have been fantastic.”
Hopefully this series will be remembered for other, more edifying reasons: its gladiatorial nature, its drama and tension and the mutual respect between two great rugby institutions. The first Test, either way, will inevitably set the tone. In 1971 the Lions won 9-3 in Dunedin en route to glory; their 2017 successors will probably have to do the same. If Gatland’s eager Lions live up to their potential, it should be a series for the ages.
Teams
New Zealand: B Smith; I Dagg, R Crotty, SB Williams, R Ioane; B Barrett, A Smith; J Moody, C Taylor, O Franks, B Rettalick, S Whitelock, J Kaino, S Cane, K Read (capt).
Replacements: N Harris, W Crockett, C Faumuina, S Barrett, A Savea, T Perenara, A Cruden, A Lienert-Brown.
British & Irish Lions: L Williams; A Watson, J Davies, B Te’o, E Daly; O Farrell, C Murray; M Vunipola, J George, T Furlong, G Kruis, AW Jones, P O’Mahony (capt), S O’Brien, T Faletau.
Replacements: K Owens, J McGrath, K Sinckler, M Itoje, S Warburton, R Webb, J Sexton, L Halfpenny.
Referee: J Peyper (South Africa).
