With the NFL draft less than two weeks away, it’s a great time for a Lions/draft mailbag.
The questions were ones not addressed from my recent video mailbag edition at the Detroit Lions Podcast. Too many of them were too good to go unanswered. Thanks to all in the podcast Slack channel for the great questions and ideas!
Devon Witherspoon at 6? Have we learned nothing from Jeff Okudah!?
Some iteration of this question came up several times, even before Okudah was traded to the Falcons for a fifth-round pick this week.
First off, every prospect is different. Okudah failed (obviously), but why he failed is important. He was drafted into a terrible coaching environment that did very little to develop talent. He was thrust into a more advanced role than he was ready for. And then the injuries. So many injuries…
Witherspoon would be joining a vastly different Lions organization. Because of the free agent moves to bring in Cam Sutton, Emmanuel Moseley and C.J. Gardner-Johnson, he wouldn’t be forced to start right away. This current Lions coaching staff is fantastic at player development, too.
As far as the value of a cornerback that high in the draft, which is a subtext across a lot of the enmity directed at selecting Witherspoon at No. 6 overall:
Sauce Garnder, somewhat unpopularly, went No. 4 overall last year to the Jets. Not only was he the NFL defensive rookie of the year, he was arguably the best coverage CB in the league, period. Again, not all prospects are the same, but don’t only look at one side of that coin.
Who is your most potential to convert to more full-time IDL if it didn’t work out for them at EDGE: Lukas Van Ness, Adetomiwa Adebawore, Tyree Wilson or Keion White?
There is a lot of speculation the Lions are interested in a player who can play both DE and DT in Aaron Glenn’s base 4-man front. It’s fueled by Detroit bringing back John Cominsky, who performed very well in that capacity last season, and also the team’s lofty opinion on Josh Paschal, last year’s second-round pick.
Of the group listed here, I project White as a full-time DT in the NFL. I think Georgia Tech used him more outside simply because that’s a more impactful position and they wanted to use their best player at a more important spot. It makes his evaluation that much more difficult, of course.
Good question from Jordan.
I also think Van Ness will either need to significantly improve his hand usage and ability to turn the corner or convert to full-time DT.
Do you still believe Tyree Wilson goes at No. 3 like you've been saying for awhile?
Short answer: If the Cardinals keep the No. 3 pick, I still believe Arizona is taking Tyree Wilson and that’s regardless of whoever else might still be on the board.
More detailed answer:
It’s always difficult to predict what a new regime will value or prioritize. The Cardinals have a rookie GM and a rookie, offensive-minded head coach. We’ve seen this firsthand, often, in Detroit. If the Cardinals are attempting to bolster the defense they’ve already got, Wilson makes the most sense with his size, length, speed and ability to move around the formation–something Texas Tech didn’t properly utilize.
Now, if the new regime is starting over and scrapping the legacy of the old defense, Wilson might not be as desirable because he’s not as accomplished of a prospect as someone like Will Anderson, Jalen Carter or even Devon Witherspoon.
Thanks to Andres for the interesting question!
What player is overvalued by the media, but not the teams themselves?
As a long-time, card-carrying draft media member, I’m probably not the best party to ask. But since you asked, Mike…
Just from feedback I’ve received from actual NFL-employed folks on recent mock drafts and projections, the most likely candidates are Pittsburgh DT Calijah Kancey (because of his size, or lack thereof) and Boston College WR Zay Flowers. I have a sneaking suspicion that we the media are higher on Oregon CB Christian Gonzalez than the league is, but that’s just a theory.
What do the Lions do at 18 if they take Devon Witherspoon at 6?
This is a conglomeration of several questions involving the Lions draft contingencies if they take Illinois CB Devon Witherspoon at No. 6, which I believe (right now) is the most likely scenario.
The top offensive line prospects certainly come into play. I don’t think Darnell Wright or Peter Skoronski will be on the board, but someone like Florida G O’Cyrus Torrence or Georgia OT Broderick Jones are viable options.
If one of the (perceived) higher-rated pass rushers, guys like Lukas Van Ness, Myle Murphy or Nolan Smith, are still around, the Lions would have to consider them at 18. Keion White too, though that’s less likely.
Clemson DT Bryan Bresee could be in that range, though I suspect his spotty run defense and enigmatic play will keep him on the board longer
Tennessee QB Hendon Hooker is someone I’ve projected to Detroit in that scenario. I don’t see that one happening anymore, for various reasons. Maybe in a trade back — which I do strongly believe GM Brad Holmes will aggressively pursue with both Lions’ first-round slots.
Then there’s Texas RB Bijan Robinson, the subject of the next question…
Why is Bijan Robinson a sure thing at pick 18?
That question from Anand is kind of an elephant in the room in a lot of draft circles.
Bijan Robinson is almost universally listed as one of the top five overall talents (he’s my personal No. 3) in the entire draft. Yet projecting him in the first round is an anathema to many fans and especially to analytics-driven analysts. The return on investment for a first-round RB simply isn’t there, the data conclusively states. Or so they say.
The question about return on investment is an interesting one. Is Robinson that much more of a difference-maker at the NFL level than what the Lions (or any team) could draft in the second or third round? How much direct impact would he have with David Montgomery and D’Andre Swift already on the roster in 2023?
My personal take: I think this is the best overall running back class since 2005, when three RBs (Ronnie Brown, Cadillac Williams, Cedric Benson) went in the top five. Yet the best NFL RB to come out of that 2005 class was the first pick of the third round, Frank Gore. Fourth-rounders Marion Barber III, Darren Sproles and Brandon Jacobs all brought more value to their NFL teams than any of the first-rounders did in several seasons.
Robinson is a special talent. But in my eyes, he doesn’t add substantially more value to Detroit in a four-year span than what Jahmyr Gibbs, Zach Charbonnet, Tank Bigsby or Devon Achane would add later in the draft. The dropoff from Robinson at 18 to any of those players later is significantly less than the dropoff would be at other positions.
But it’s still fun to contemplate what landing the best RB prospect in years could do in a creative offense in Detroit with arguably the NFL’s top run-blocking offensive line.
How has your QB draft evaluation process changed and developed over the years, and what methods do you when rating a QB prospect?
This is the headline from a much more involved question from Zinspire.
The evaluation process is something I’m always adapting. It’s critical to learn from the misses, but more importantly why they were misses.
I’ve given more emphasis to ball placement on shorter throws recently. Not all completions are the same; did the receiver have to work to catch it? Was the throw on time and in stride? Did the QB recognize any potential defensive hazard?
All of those help factor into why I rate C.J. Stroud so highly. It’s why I’m significantly lower on Will Levis than most evaluators and why I didn’t have a draftable grade last year on Malik Willis from his game film. It’s why I like Clayton Tune the most of the “rest” of the quarterbacks in this draft class.
The ability to handle in-pocket pressure and the ability to effortlessly lead in critical situations are things I’ve also come to value more over time. Bryce Young checks that box with flying colors.
