As the past few weeks on the election trail have shown, a campaign rarely runs in a straight line. What seems certain one day can look unlikely the next and a few days after being tipped to go through the rest of the tour without securing a victory the Lions not only defeated the previously unbeaten Crusaders but gave New Zealand some reasons to be fearful.
One disappointment for the Lions, which will kick in after the euphoria and relief of a win they needed with the majority of the side likely to start the first Test, was that they did not adorn it with tries. They created chances but a mixture of poor decision-making, a lack of understanding and slack passing under pressure cost them from the opening minute.
What mattered, though, was the result and the manner of the victory. The strong set pieces complemented by resourcefulness at the breakdown, an accurate kicking game and a suffocating defence that maintained its chokehold despite a backline reshuffle in the first half will keep New Zealand’s analysts up for a few nights.
The Crusaders failed to score a try for the first time since April 2015. The conditions were no aid to passing movements but they had not been in Auckland three nights before when the Blues stretched the Lions defence until it snapped. The home side showed the expected intent in possession but the Lions closed down space so quickly that the Super Rugby favourites became jammed up in a congested midfield.
Even when the Lions kicked long and the receiver had time to launch a counterattack the tourists were quick to deter the long pass, leaving a run or a kick as the only options. Even from set pieces, which were at times under so much pressure that a kick offered relief, the Crusaders struggled to move the ball beyond the second receiver and were cramped for space.
They created two half-chances, George Bridge shoved into touch in the first half after a cross kick and then failing to gather Jack Goodhue’s improvised kick from a scrum, but otherwise the Crusaders were mute as an attacking force. They struggled to please the French referee, Mathieu Raynal, at the scrum, penalised for not staying square and engaging too early, but they were more perturbed at what they felt was his connivance at the Lions encroaching beyond the feet of the hindmost player as they rushed up in defence.
With French officials in charge of the final two Tests, the New Zealand head coach, Steve Hansen, is sure to use media conferences to put pressure on Jérôme Garcès and Romain Poite, officials who were not swayed by home pressure during the 2015 World Cup when they took charge of England’s group matches against Wales and Australia.
Raynal was in charge when New Zealand lost to Ireland in Chicago in November and, while the Top 14 may have become the most mind-numbing of the major leagues in Europe, French officials are arguably the world’s best, refereeing what they see with consistency. Unlike most, they tend not to provide a running commentary, making it harder for players to test their tolerance thresholds.
The Lions conceded seven penalties, a marked improvement on Wednesday, when Liam Williams was sent to the sin-bin for taking out a player in the air for the second time. This time the Lions waited for the catcher to hit the ground before moving in. The kicks from Conor Murray were precise and Israel Dagg even proved suspect under the high ball.
Murray, like his half-back partner Owen Farrell, made a significant impact. Farrell moved into the midfield, operating at centre when Jonathan Davies failed a head injury assessment, with Jonathan Sexton coming on at fly-half. It gave the Lions the opportunity to see the pair in tandem and they benefited from another happy accident when Anthony Watson replaced the injured Stuart Hogg at full-back and he unnerved the Crusaders with his pace and elusiveness.
Watson is an option at full-back for the first Test but the priority in midfield has to be to play Farrell where he is at his most commanding. That is at fly-half, which would mean Ben Te’o and Jonathan Davies linking up again in midfield. Davies, like Leigh Halfpenny and Dan Biggar on Wednesday, showed that the Lions are not playing Warrenball, keeping the ball alive at every opportunity. It may not be the tiki-taka rugby New Zealand have come to cherish but it looks sure enough to prevent a landslide.
