Tens of thousands of Hunter voters will switch seats before the 2025 federal election if the Australian Electoral Commission adopts boundary redraw suggestions from the major parties.
The commission is weighing up new federal electoral boundaries as part of a seven-yearly process to account for population changes. The redistribution requires NSW to shed one of its 47 lower house seats.
The Labor, Liberal and National parties have lodged submissions with the AEC which all propose moving Muswellbrook out of the Hunter electorate to New England to keep both seats within the accepted range of projected voter numbers in 2028.
The Nationals have gone one step further by suggesting Singleton suburbs north of the Hunter River also shift to former deputy prime minister Barnaby Joyce's patch.
The Liberals have suggested the most radical redraw of boundaries in the region, proposing Paterson dump Kurri Kurri to Hunter and retake Hawks Nest and Tea Gardens from Lyne.
The Liberal plan includes returning Lorn, Bolwarra and Largs from Lyne to Paterson, ending the existing division of the Maitland local government area at the Hunter River.
The Nationals' submission to the AEC also supports this move.
The Liberals want all of Singleton LGA transferred from Hunter to Lyne while Hunter annexes a large slab of western Newcastle, including Wallsend, Jesmond, Birmingham Gardens, Maryland, Fletcher and Elermore Vale.
Under these changes, Hunter would become less of a coalmining electorate and more focused on the high-growth urban fringes of Newcastle and Cessnock LGAs.
The Liberals' proposed boundary changes also include Shortland more closely resembling Lake Macquarie LGA, retaking the entire western side of the lake and shedding its northern suburbs, including Cardiff and Charlestown, to Newcastle.
The changes would enhance the Liberals' chances of winning Paterson, a seat they held through long-time member Bob Baldwin until a redistribution shifted the coalfields towns of Maitland and Kurri Kurri into the electorate and delivered Labor a 10.5 per cent swing at the 2016 election.
Meryl Swanson held the marginal seat last year with a buffer of 3.3 percentage points after a 1.7-point swing to the Liberals, but exchanging coalfields towns for coastal retirement havens would damage her prospects in 2024.
Labor enjoyed a two-party preferred vote of 60 to 68 per cent at the Maitland and Kurri Kurri polling booths last year, while the Nationals' Lyne MP, David Gillespie, enjoyed a similar margin of victory at the Hawks Nest and Tea Gardens booths.
A Labor source said it was "no surprise" the Liberals would try to claw back a seat in the Hunter.
He said some Muswellbrook voters would resist moves to shift them into New England, where Mr Joyce's electorate office is in Tamworth.
The Liberals' submission says the Lower Hunter's electoral boundaries are "unsatisfactory" and can be "adjusted to facilitate a better reflection of community of interest".
"We suggest that Shortland should revert to including the eastern and western shores of Lake Macquarie, substantially based on Lake Macquarie LGA," the submission says.
"We also include all of Port Stephens LGA in Paterson, along with Karuah, Tea Gardens and Hawks Nest, towns on the northern shore of Port Stephens whose links to Raymond Terrace are much stronger than to Forster or Taree.
"Lyne is better linked to a rural shire in the Hunter Valley than parts of Maitland and Port Stephens LGAs. We suggest that the whole of Singleton LGA be included in Lyne."
The Nationals also want Hunter to absorb all of Cessnock LGA, including Kurri Kurri.
All of the major parties propose shifting Fern Bay and Fullerton Cove from the Paterson electorate into Newcastle.
Labor's proposal is far simpler than those suggested by the two Coalition partners, though it agrees that all of Muswellbrook LGA should shift into New England.
The Labor plan suggests moving part of Cardiff from Shortland to Hunter and leaving Lyne untouched.
It reserves its biggest changes for the boundary between Newcastle and Paterson, proposing Tomago, Fern Bay, Fullerton Cove, Campvale, Williamtown and parts of Raymond Terrace and Salt Ash shift into Newcastle, which would then shed all of Kotara and parts of Adamstown and New Lambton to Shortland.
All major parties have suggested boundary changes in the region because Hunter and especially Paterson are forecast to exceed the maximum number of voters by 2028, while Shortland and New England will fall short of their quota.
Thirty-five of the existing 47 federal electorates in NSW are forecast to have enrolments outside the 3.5 per cent tolerance by 2028.
Fast-growing Paterson, with an estimated enrolment of 135,000 this year, and Hunter are already 11.83 per cent and 8.74 per cent above average respectively.
Shortland has only 117,000 voters, 3 per cent below average, while New England has 115,000 and is projected to be 11 per cent below quota by 2028.
Newcastle does not require a change to its total enrolment as it is close to average now and in the five-year projections.
