A deal that saw Malcolm Turnbull’s preferred candidate for Wentworth drop out of the race has sparked a battle between the Liberals and Nationals for the second Coalition Senate spot in New South Wales.
On Tuesday, Senator John “Wacka” Williams publicly staked a claim on behalf of the Nationals, warning that if the Liberals did not yield the spot – which has been promised to Andrew Bragg – the Nationals should run a separate ticket.
Bragg, a former acting federal director of the Liberal party and Business Council of Australia executive, dropped out of the Wentworth race on Monday after polling showed a woman was more likely to hold the seat.
Bragg has been promised the second spot on the Coalition Senate ticket, behind Liberal Jim Molan, with the Nationals due to receive the third spot, which is winnable but at-risk.
At the 2016 double-dissolution election, five Coalition senators were elected from New South Wales – three Liberals and two Nationals, the former Nationals deputy leader Fiona Nash and Williams.
But the high court ruled Nash ineligible to sit in parliament due to dual citizenship, resulting in Molan, a Liberal, getting the seat.
Williams – who is retiring at the next election – told Sky News that, as a result of the ruling, Liberal Concetta Fierravanti-Wells received a six-year term, leaving only himself and Molan on three-year terms.
“Under the agreement I believe [the Nationals] have the third position … on a joint ticket come next election, probably in May next year,” Williams said. “If we don’t get the third [candidate] up, we’ll have five Liberal senators from New South Wales and no Nationals – I think that’s a little unfair.”
Williams said it would be “up to head office” to negotiate with the Liberals on the issue but, in his opinion, “if the Nationals can’t get second on that ticket, I think we should run alone because we’ve got nothing to lose and probably a fair bit to gain”.
The withdrawal of Bragg – who was regarded as the favourite – leaves the Wentworth race open. The former MP Peter King and diplomat David Sharma are both pushing for Liberal preselection in a ballot to be conducted on Thursday evening.
Guardian Australia understands Scott Morrison’s office is contacting Liberal members on the prime minister’s behalf recommending a vote for the former Woollahra councillor Katherine O’Regan.
But some branch members believe Woollahra councillor Mary-Lou Jarvis is more popular, citing the fact Jarvis has already beaten O’Regan when contesting the Liberal women’s council presidency and preselection for Woollahra council.
Although Bragg publicly called for Liberal members to preselect a woman for Wentworth, many electors believe the party lacks the institutional structures to tip the balance in favour of a woman.
The Liberals hold Wentworth with an 18% margin but the seat is vulnerable because private polls suggest the Liberal primary vote is below 40%, down from 62% at the last election. The former Australian Medical Association president and marriage equality campaigner Kerryn Phelps is considering a run as an independent.
On Tuesday Morrison promised to fight hard to retain the seat – on which the Coalition’s one-seat majority depends – but lowered expectations the Liberals would win.
He said he knew the seat well because he bought his first house there and described it as a diverse community. Morrison said that when John Howard was at his strongest, the Liberals’ margin in the seat was still only 6%, suggesting that the byelection campaign would be a “difficult one”.
Earlier on 2GB radio, Morrison said that Liberal members would decide whether to preselect a woman.
Asked if he wanted a woman to be the candidate, he replied: “I’m a merit person and the party members will decide our candidate in Wentworth.
“Look, of course I want to see more women in the federal parliament.”
