That’s it from me. Many thanks for your company, suggestions, pointers, one liners, all of which have sustained us.
The leadership remains as clear as it was this morning.
We will pull up stumps and survey the land tomorrow.
Good night.
Malcolm Turnbull says the Liberal's ETS is dead
Wait! There’s more from Bridie Jabour. Here she is, from the Dam Hotel.
Malcolm Turnbull has made a pretty strong pitch to those in the party room who might be jittery about his carbon credentials using a doorstop outside of the politics in the pub event to emphatically say he does not support an Emissions Trading Scheme - the undoing of his previous leadership of the Liberal party.
Turnbull was stopped by reporters exiting the function and though he ignored many of the questions, one about his position on emissions trading scheme caught his ear. The ETS policy of the Liberal party is dead, he said, and he would not be bringing it back.
We had a referendum on the emissions trading scheme in 2013 which was showed the resolve against it. It was then repealed and it was replaced by the direct action policy now some people have said ‘Malcolm doesn’t agree with the government’s [climate] policy and thinks it should be canned…you can’t change your policies every two years or every three years.
My view is we have the same targets, bipartisan targets, we’ve got a different mechanism. We’ve got to leave that as it is and as is consistent with our policy, in the event of there being a new global agreement we’ll review the existing policy. But the idea we would or should suddenly reinstate something we have abolished is ridiculous.
Updated
Again from Ten reporter Adam Todd.
Malcolm Turnbull blatantly flaunts his Prime Ministerial credentials pic.twitter.com/rHJSmCzMZU
— Adam Todd (@_AdamTodd) February 5, 2015
So that is it for the member for Wentworth.
At the beginning, Bridie Jabour reports he was asked if Tony Abbott had his unconditional support, Karen McNamara and Malcolm Turnbull answered in unison:
he has our support.
And that was it.
The last question is on fracking.
The former water minister begins a dissertation on fracking.
You drill vertically, then horizontally, then use water and/or chemicals to fracture and draw the gas out.
You have to think of the earth as a layer cake.
(The same example as the NSW Farmers Association president Fiona Simson gave in objecting to the Shenhua Liverpool Plains open cut coal mine.)
Water is all connected generally...If I take water out of one stratum, that will cause water in higher stratums to come down...It is very complex, we understand very little about ground water. That’s why fracking has got to be done extremely carefully with very good understanding of the ground water hydrology.
A question urging him to rethink higher education deregulation, with the threat of higher fees.
Turnbull repeats Christopher Pyne’s line that the HECs loan “is the best rate you will get in your life”.
He starts on the problem of the debt.
We’ve heard it all before, yells a woman from the audience.
Turnbull asks to get a chance to explain it and “frame it”.
He says you might think you have been able to buy investments with a loan that have done well - but you are not taking out loans to cover your operating costs.
Bill Shorten, he says, does not have an alternative proposal.
He harks back to his time in 2009 as opposition leader when he did the opposition’s budget reply speech where he gave alternatives to budget savings.
We were responsible in that manner, says Turnbull. Everyone says I don’t like this cut...if you are the alternative prime minister, surely he should have the responsibility to offer
Someone asks, if there are budget problems, will you look at negative gearing.
The government has no plans to do anything about negative gearing, I hasten to add.
But - it is one of the areas that is under review, he says.
Which seems like a contradiction. (But who am I?)
A question on the return of foreign fighters. We take it very seriously, says Turnbull.
He says foreign fighters are having a “very short life span” over there, being a death cult.
The message is they don’t come back.
Another question on technology.
The scarcest thing is what is between your ears, Turnbull tells an 18-year-old questioner. Sounds dodgy but the point was the limitations for innovation are not the technology-based but imagination.
Malcolm Turnbull has raised the Sydney siege. He talks about a train trip from Edgecliff to North Sydney on the day, when the passengers were quiet - thinking about the victims.
There was, he says, a determined love, a determination that our love for each other, our love for our country, was not going to be overwhelmed by hatred.
Have you ever been so proud of the reaction, he asks.
Our humans, our people are our greatest wealth.
What type of society do you envision for Australia? Forget the budget.
This is a remarkable country, says Malcolm Turnbull.
A culture or ethos that is quite unique.
We have a commitment to democracy but not one where a winner takes all.
Look at some of the countries in the Middle East, where when one group does away with another when they win power, he says.
We are egalitarian: “Jack is as good as his master.
We have a deep sense of fairness. Capitalism is much redder of tooth and claw in America than it is here.
He talks about the level of people born overseas and therefore we are much more harmonious than other countries.
Turnbull says Hawke had Keating and Howard had Costello but Abbott has had no senior obviously jockeying for his position. #libspill
— Bridie Jabour (@bkjabour) February 5, 2015
Malcolm Turnbull returns to the housing question.
It is not just release of land, but it is also about urban density. A lot of these issues - most - involve local and state governments.
He says straightforward planning laws allow more supply and lower housing prices.
Our (federal) hands are a long way away from the levers.
We do need to have a national conversation on housing affordability.
What are you going to do about affordable housing?
Malcolm Turnbull says great question but goes back to the leadership and his earlier point about loyalty.
He wasn’t suggesting other people were not loyal to other Liberal leaders (ie Peter Costello).
Turnbull feels his answer was not clear.
I didn’t want to be unfair to my good friend Peter Costello.
Hockey will no doubt take over but to date “Peter Costello is the greatest treasurer we have had”.
(He must have got a text from Costello.)
A recovering addict talks about youth, drugs and alcohol. He wants to know what can be done to help young people who need to get their head sorted before trying to get work.
Turnbull suggests Karen McNamara talk about what is happening locally.
Though it does raise the issue of the cut backs to the unemployment benefits for the first six months for young unemployed. (As yet, blocked in the senate.)
Yes we acknowledge there is a problem but we have to work together with community groups, says McNamara.
Updated
Malcolm Turnbull is explaining Peter Lewis’ review of the ABC and SBS and Turnbull’s direction to find savings in the “back office stuff” rather than the programs.
Lewis came up with big savings to cover the modest savings required for productivity savings.
The cries of outrage as to the cuts in the ABC were really out of proportion.
He is asked about regulation on service providers on the NBN?
I hope you are getting approached by a number of service providers as the NBN roll out happens. That’s what we want to see.
A bloke representing the Friends of the ABC up next. Are you going to review the decision (on ABC cuts)?
Much applause. Many ABC friends in the room.
Turnbull talks about how in the private commercial TV world, you have financial pressures.
Whereas for a public broadcasters, they do not have the same pressures, he says.
There is a Karen McNamara supporter who comments on how fab she is and what a good job she has done on trade training.
She says only 50% of local students stay at school until year 12. Many want to learn a trade.
The central coast Greens candidate, I missed her name, is giving a dissertation on how the central coast could be a Silicon Valley. Why not invest in it? (Shortened version.)
Turnbull says the central coast is one of the first areas to get “very very good connectivity”.
He says business and investment have “never been a strong suit of the Greens”.
Just because a place have good connectivity, does not mean it follows they become the next Silicon Valley.
What you really need is get more skills, training and higher education into the area.
One of the challenges of the central coast is not enough jobs here and you have to compete somewhere else.
He says the Liberal MP Karen McNamara is working on attracting higher education into the area to do that.
McNamara gets a go on her vision.
That commute, I understand it. I’ve done it.
A question on foreign ownership, what are you going to do about foreign companies buying up land in Australia?
Turnbull outlines the Coalition policy to drop the value from $248m to $15m at which the Foreign Investment Review Board reviews the sale. (Which has yet to happen.)
He then says foreign investors have been good citizens. The bigger issue is not the nationality of buyers but what people do with it.
If you have a property and then a huge open cut coal mine opens next door, that is a bigger issue than what the person’s nationality, he says.
I beg your pardon, I have to disagree.
It’s got to be in the right form and adds jobs. says Turnbull.
Malcolm Turnbull rejects the analogy of building the Sydney Harbour Bridge with only two lanes.
We are biggest broadband network in the world across a range of technologies, says Turnbull.
He talks about a local example of an old lady who was getting fibre to the home under the previous government plans. She had her garden dug up, but all she wanted was a phone line to work. She did not want to operate digging equipment remotely, she was not an interactive gamer, she just wanted a working landline.
Not everyone needs such large capacity. Fibre to the node would have been fine for her.
Bridie Jabour reports on the first question of leadership, a bloke yelled “why don’t you just say no, you’re not interested in the leadership?”.
The atmosphere is a bit tense, apparently, due to the number of journalists and the feeling amongst the locals that they cannot fully express themselves in front of the cameras.
Local woman is asking why rural Lancashire has 1 gigabit of of download because they have fibre to the home. What about us and the opportunities to create jobs? Where’s the innovation?
Malcolm Turnbull is arguing if most people don’t use the extra download. Gives the water pipe example. Just because you have a big water pipe to your house, you won’t use any more water unless you are going into rice farming.
You’ve got to make sure bandwidth ...is only useful if it enables you to do something.
Turnbull then knocks back a beer. Or a sip. #isitashandy
Our plan is how to ensure that each and everyone of us and our children and grandchildren will have good jobs in a competitive world, Turnbull says.
This is the most exciting time to be alive.
You have to be interested in a strong economy that is smart and innovative.
That’s why he is working on e-government.
How will you get youth more engaged in politics?
Turnbull says the usual prescription is do more on social media and that is all true.
But here’s the thing, the most important issue is to make sure you have an economic message that is relevant.
You have to explain it, he says.
Turnbull is talking about the NBN, he got it in bad shape and but it is getting better.
As an old Liberal man for a long time, someone asks, it’s the little people that make all the big people like yourself.
Are you interested or not because it is doing damage to Karen and all the little people, says a local.
Turnbull says he has led a party before. He says Tony Abbott has had complete loyalty.
He has not been undermined by anybody.
The bloke says: It’s either yes or no!
I’m happy to take other questions, says Turnbull.
Malcolm Turnbull is speaking on a stage, next to a flag, in the pub.
There has never - in the history of politics - been a bad short speech.
It will go until 7.30pm or 8pm.
The room is full though it is unclear whether they are all journalists or locals.
Malcolm Turnbull is talking in a doorstop about the suggestion that he and Julie Bishop had met. Not true
Julie and I and my other cabinet colleagues talk all the time. Which is by the way, what we are meant to do. That is why we are united.
Bridie Jabour reports from the Dam Hotel. Or as Abbott might say, the Damn! Hotel.
"Get your the face on tv, Liberals will come drink here tomorrow, they'll say "he's a friend of Malcolm"," punter to hotel owner #libspill
— Bridie Jabour (@bkjabour) February 5, 2015
Turnbull is yet to arrive.
We are still awaiting an appearance...
Lest you were wondering...
Heading to the Dam Hotel North Wyong w Member for Dobell Karen McNamara for 'Politics in the Pub' - watch it live on http://t.co/heVQpbIvBH
— Malcolm Turnbull (@TurnbullMalcolm) February 5, 2015
Helpful.
Malcolm Turnbull appears in Politics At The Pub at the central coast shortly.
Paul Murray, who interviews Tony Abbott tonight, says the prime minister came across as “calm” and not “rushing off” to make phone calls.
Meanwhile, Julie Bishop is still having fun.
UWS VC Professor Barney Glover snaps a pic with @JulieBishopMP during her visit to @UWS today pic.twitter.com/0M4e1wv5Hs
— UWS News (@UWSNews) February 5, 2015
Michael Kroger, who is running for the Victorian Liberal party president’s job, is asked about Warren Truss’ statement that the coalition agreement is with Tony Abbott - backing in the PM.
It was an interesting statement, wasn’t it....I haven’t heard a National party leader say that since the 1960s.
Kroger makes the point that he suspects the Truss comments are about sharing the the spoils of government (my words) - that is, concern about the National party portfolios and how many.
When leadership changes, everyone is concerned about the chairs, says Kroger.
Kroger does not suggest Truss is right or wrong. His hands are in the air. Nothing to do with me.
Kroger talks about the Queensland government but says:
You can’t spring surprises on people.
Kroger echoes Andrew Robb’s thinking about broken promises.
Some of those things apply to the feds.
From @janecat60, in the absence of Mike Bowers.
@gabriellechan Anyway here's Malcolm on his way to Tuggerah @mpbowers pic.twitter.com/ayVNNkHC5U
— Jane Cattermole (@janecat60) February 5, 2015
Michael Kroger says Tony Abbott should stay as leader and yes, there are problems.
As to who leads the party, Tony Abbott is leader and if that changes, you will all be notified.
Influential Liberal Michael Kroger says there are difficulties for the Coalition
Kroger says Abbott has been a friend since 1978, done a fine job, you would “be a fool deny there are difficulties”.
It’s always so dangerous when people start saying what a good bloke you are.
Updated
No I’m not. Humble “party member” Michael Kroger is on Sky.
Pardon me. I am just resting my eyeballs in a glass of water before Politics in the Pub.
Abbott loyalist, the Tasmanian MP Andrew Nikolic has given fellow Liberal Andrew Laming a bit of free advice about his private members bill to knock off the prime minister’s knights and dames. Lenore Taylor reports here.
Here is part of the email missive from Nikolic:
I can understand your lack of knowledge on this, because it is an esoteric area of constitutional practice, but may I say that before launching a national media campaign on this issue, you should have done your homework first.
Your private member’s bill proposal is wrong-headed and, as the lawyers would say, ultra vires. Having made your point I suggest you abandon this idea and concentrate on those things we are all working for, above all – jobs, restoring our economic freedom of action, and helping ensure the security of our wonderful nation.
Nikolic made the mistake - in a hot house atmosphere of leadership wars - to CC other members. Hence, here it is.
Long long ago in a far away land, the Liberal party leadership and their team used to tweet a lot more often about leadership in the Rudd-Gillard-Rudd phase. Buzzfeed has compiled the Best of the Libs so everyone can reminisce.
It is hard to choose a favourite but here are a selection:
Tony Abbott in his #asktony phase.
We’re ready. I lead a stable and united team - a contrast to the other side #asktony
Julie Bishop.
ALP now have 3 “leaders” - the Defender, the Contender and the Pretender.
Scott Morrison.
Labor leadership chatter is all about a Government sacking itself for its own poor performance #fb
Notably missing is one of the early adopters on Twitter, Malcolm Turnbull.
Updated
Andrew Robb pleads for extra time for Tony Abbott
The Liberal trade minister Andrew Robb is continuing.
Q: Do you accept that Tony Abbott himself is to blame - or words to that effect.
Robb again says, “we all are” (part of the problem) and then he says:
he (Abbott) has been a part of it (the problem), he has been a big part, he is the leader”.
But:
It is Tony Abbott who can claim so much of the credit for a really strong year (last year)... but you wouldn’t know it.
Robb says: “we should give him the opportunity to prove it” .
If there was a spill, after Abbott made an effort to consult, Robb says:
we would be seen as a bunch of amateurs.
Robb is asked if he would be interested in leader or deputy leader.
Robb says he supports the current leadership.
I’ve not got my eyes on anything else.
Andrew Robb is repeating his comments about people waking up on the morning after the budget with the surprise of the two big policy changes - Medicare copayment and university deregulation.
The mistake is not arguing the policies before they were sprung on the electorate.
(What’s that saying about Sherlock?)
Labor is making a connection between interviewer Paul Murray’s damning editorial last night against Julie Bishop and the granting of an interview with Tony Abbott today.
This is Labor’s transcript of Murray’s comments.
Julie Bishop has been a disappointment in the past couple of days. Now a lot of people got up me for the rant because last night I called her out for doing a television doorstop pre-dawn yesterday, as I accused her of trying to cash in on the Peter Greste decision, one that she yes was integral in making happen.
But she knew what she was doing. She was getting in front of TV cameras so all over Sunrise, the Today Show and here on Sky News, Julie Bishop would be associated with the positive story, while Tony Abbott would have to deliver the bad news in Canberra to save his job. It was about a subtle as a sledgehammer.
Normally when politicians make announcements pre-dawn they do it via radio and radio interviews…. She decided however, with pissing down rain, to do a television appearance. So it was obvious what she was up to yesterday.
But today, well it is even more obvious what Julie Bishop is clearly up to, which is this game of waiting. Playing a waiting game before declaring her full support for the Prime Minister.
[Big rant about how long it took Bishop make a statement on challenge]
Julie Bishop is the deputy leader, not just an MP not just a Minister. She is the 2IC, she is the Julia Gillard to Tony Abbott’s Kevin Rudd. Julie Bishop should not have taken the best part of maybe five, six hours to walk away from a story that was apparently false. She should have instantly check that was the case. And last time I checked, Julie Bishop and all the people around her, well they’ve got a television. And it was the breaking news story on this channel and many others all day today.
The truth is there are people around the Prime Minister who want him gone, there are people who want to replace him, but here’s the truth. Nobody has quite worked out who is the horse to back.
So dickheads like Mal Brough, Warren Enstch and this bloke from WA (Dennis Jensen) need to pull their heads in, because you haven’t worked out what you want to do.
My simple warning, not just on behalf of the people who did vote for this government, and I voted for this government. But on the behalf of 23 million Australians is, get your shit together. It is up to Australians to hire and fire the Prime Minister, it is not up to the backroom boys and girls. And if you are the deputy Liberal leader, if you are the foreign minister of this country, if you are somebody who I know and respect, knows diplomacy, you can do a bit better than waiting six hours to tell us that the story on the TV isn’t true.
You decide. As they say in the classics.
Is it a walk back from the previous comments?
Speaking to David Speers on Sky news shortly.
— Andrew Robb (@AndrewRobbMP) February 5, 2015
Andrew Robb is about to speak on Sky. The pace is quickening here...
Tony Abbott does not expect a leadership spill on Tuesday
Paul Murray’s interview with Tony Abbott has already been done apparently. Sky journalist David Speers tossed us a snippet just now, in which the prime minister said he does not “deal in hypotheticals” in relation Tuesday’s party room.
I don’t expect anything to happen.
Just spoken with @TonyAbbottMHR in Canberra. FULL INTERVIEW on #pmlive 9pm AEDT on Sky News. pic.twitter.com/8g0AaSMg29
— Paul Murray (@PMOnAir) February 5, 2015
Joe Hockey says he was visiting a small business that employs 20 people. Ben Fordham asks whether his frustrations over leadership “reached a new level”.
Hockey is again saying the carbon tax removal was the reason the Reserve Bank cutting interest rates, which Greg Jericho has addressed. (see post 14:59) .
Instability is good for the media and good for social media, says Hockey.
You have to deliver stability. When you make difficult decisions, he says:
you have to lose bark.
@TurnbullMalcolm @BenFordham Sorry Malcolm - as well as not meeting you today I am not meeting you tonight!!Great day with @FionaScottMP 😃😎
— Julie Bishop (@JulieBishopMP) February 5, 2015
Meanwhile the treasurer Joe Hockey is about to go on 2GB with Ben Fordham. The circle is complete.
Julie Bishop, meanwhile, continues to provide lots of evidence she is nowhere near the member for Wentworth.
This morning was great to be at Westfield Penrith. Here also with the @PenrithPanthers enjoying a spot of breakfast. pic.twitter.com/8H4Gm8E71D
— Fiona Scott (@FionaScottMP) February 5, 2015
Pleasure to be at University of Western Sydney w @FionaScottMP to meet with #NewColomboPlan students @UWSNews pic.twitter.com/2F8US3ynaQ
— Julie Bishop (@JulieBishopMP) February 5, 2015
@JulieBishopMP visited @UWS with @FionaScottMP to congratulate the uni on an agreement with a Chinese university pic.twitter.com/acGogCTMVS
— Penrith Press (@PenrithPress) February 5, 2015
Daniel Hurst’s story is up, wrapping the morning events here.
The trade minister, Andrew Robb, has added his weight to “legitimate” backbench concerns about the government’s tendency to surprise voters, and indicated his support for Tony Abbott was conditional on performance.
Robb said he was confident there were no challengers to the prime minister’s leadership and that Abbott would “get the clear air that he needs to seek to get our political standing onto a stronger basis”.
But in a strong critique, Robb said the government had made mistakes and surprised voters with health and education policies in last year’s budget which had “allowed our opponents to frighten people”.
Just back to Joe Hockey and his suggestion that he entered politics to do something for his country. (See post 14:17)
Reader Tim Senior has reminded me of his biography, Not Your Average Joe, in which he discussed his initial reason for getting into student politics. Guardian covered the excerpts here:
it was simply a movie ticket he was seeking. He’d popped down to the [University of Sydney’s] Student Representative Council, where the woman at the front counter had dismissed his query. He thought she was rude. She probably thought he was an upstart, but Joe was furious. His fees were paying her salary and that meant she was in his service. ‘I would have liked her to be nice to me,’ Joe says, ‘so I thought I should give politics a go.
Updated
I know you must be sick of this by now but we do have to finish the Turnbull train story.
@TurnbullMalcolm At the risk of coming across as obsessed, can I kindly ask you confirm you did not meet Julie today? *ducks rotten fruit*
— BenFordham (@BenFordham) February 5, 2015
Turnbull says he will not meet her in his house. He will not meet her with his spouse. (I made the last bit up.)
@BenFordham, you have to let this go. No I have not met @JulieBishopMP today and won't unless she comes to the Dam Hotel North Wyong tonight
— Malcolm Turnbull (@TurnbullMalcolm) February 5, 2015
There is no meeting, people. Nothing to see here.
Updated
Greg Jericho has addressed Joe Hockey’s claims that the removal of the carbon tax was the reason for the interest rate cut.
Hockey can keep saying the end of the carbon tax allowed the RBA to cut rates, but what he perhaps should ponder is why – despite the removal of the carbon tax – they still needed to.
Definitely worth a read.
Updated
We are back to the train station again. Turns out independent Cathy McGowan was at the station two days ago. Train travel is the new black. Via James Fettes, the local ABC correspondent.
.@Indigocathy will ride Wod to Melb V/Line tomorrow to gauge opinion & advocate for improvements to NE trains @ABCGM pic.twitter.com/7veuw1ozLP
— James Fettes (@JamesFettes) February 4, 2015
Regular watchers of 7.30 Report will know agriculture minister Barnaby Joyce bet host Leigh Sales that Tony Abbott would be the Liberal leader at the next election.
Apparently, the minister clarified the situation today.
Newsflash @leighsales Barnaby has just clarified situation at Wodonga doorstop: he comes with the house! Be alarmed #auspol
— Darren Chester MP (@DarrenChesterMP) February 4, 2015
And Leigh’s reply.
@DarrenChesterMP tell Barnaby I said first prize: the house, second prize: the house with Barnaby in it.
— Leigh Sales (@leighsales) February 4, 2015
With apologies to Dr Seuss.
A train! A train!
A train! A train!
Could you, would you
On a train?
Not on a train! Not in a tree!
Not in a car! Tony let me be!
I would not, could not, in a box.
I could not, would not, with a fox.
I will not challenge with a mouse
I will not challenge in a house.
I will not challenge here or there.
I will not challenge anywhere.
Updated
Re the Turnbull Train. The member for Wentworth is heading up to a Politics in the Pub event on the central coast, booked before the leadership stuff erupted.
The event goes from 6-8pm and if the live television gods are looking after us, I shall be live blogging it as it happens.
In a strange twist in the evenings events, we have just learned that Tony Abbott will make a rare late night appearance on Paul Murray’s show on Sky TV at 9pm.
Prime Minister Tony Abbott will be my guest on #pmlive tonight. 9pm AEDT @SkyNewsAust.
— Paul Murray (@PMOnAir) February 5, 2015
Which would seem to bookend Malcolm Turnbull nicely.
Joe Hockey to colleagues: stop commenting
Here is the full leadership answer from Joe Hockey, who is fed up with questions on the leadership.
Treasurer, does the comments of senator Sinodinos late yesterday and the trade minister this morning on ABC ... claim that there were only a couple of rogue backbenchers who are dissatisfied with Tony Abbott. Surely now you would concede that the dissatisfaction with the prime minister (was more) than you were saying a couple of days ago?
You know, there has been a lot of gossip, a lot of talk over the last few days on leadership. When I came into politics, I did it for my country. I did it for people like you – small business people that are actually trying to have a go, to have a better county – a better life. There is no way people like Peter Hendy, myself and others, are going to trade away the national interest for self-interest. I would say to everyone: put the country first. Put Australia first. Put Australians first. Focus on the job you have to do to build prosperity. Stop engaging in commentary on colleagues. Stop engaging in commentary on the leadership. Focus on fixing the country because by god, that is the job we have been elected to do and I am determined, determined to do it for my country. Thanks very much.
Colleague Bernard Keane from Crikey wants to ask a question re the NBN.
did you bring some cups and string to demonstrate your broadband plan? @TurnbullMalcolm @BenFordham
— Bernard Keane (@BernardKeane) February 5, 2015
Hilarious tweets continuing from Malcolm Turnbull on the train, trolling Ben Fordham who suggested he was meeting with Julie Bishop today at his Sydney home. It should be said Fordham did ask if there was a meeting at anytime today with Bishop. That question has not been answered.
And now for some Hawkesbury River pix from the train! very scenic if not rapid. pic.twitter.com/ItDSm2Kr2q
— Malcolm Turnbull (@TurnbullMalcolm) February 5, 2015
Then this.
Arrived at our destination! @BenFordham looking forward to discussing broadband with Karen Mcnamara MP pic.twitter.com/COBieaQoZK
— Malcolm Turnbull (@TurnbullMalcolm) February 5, 2015
Peter Hendy says he does not know what will happen next week regarding the spill.
I don’t think there should be a spill or any formal motions in that regard.
But people should be able to vent, says Hendy.
There should be a bit of a talk and clear the air next Tuesday.
At last! It’s all about the Nationals.
Eden-Monaro Liberal MP Peter Hendy said he supports Tony Abbott, without conditions. The keeper of the bellwether seat suggested listening to the National party MP Darren Chester who told Liberals to take a long walk on a beach and calm down on leadership.
I’ve got a lot of nice beaches in my electorate, says Hendy. But if numbers keep tracking a la Queensland, he may not have the water view for very long.
Ben Fordham is persisting with his questioning of the train-bound Turnbull.
@BenFordham No Ben. At 11.30 am I was not meeting w @JulieBishopMP - after a meeting at NBNCo I was waiting for a train at Nth Sydney
— Malcolm Turnbull (@TurnbullMalcolm) February 5, 2015
Everyone is at a train station today. Here is Warren Truss, National party leader, answering questions. The Nats are attending their first party room meeting in Wodonga today. It is independent Cathy McGowan’s seat and if you are wondering about the train imagery, rail transport came up as a big issue when McGowan threw out Sophie Mirabella. As the Nats will have a tilt at the seat, they are looking at the issues around that electorate. Other issues include mobile blackspots and the National Broadband Network (NBN).
.@The_Nationals in #Wodonga talking about future policy direction for regional Australia. Nats team united & focused. pic.twitter.com/4uDUuwdEIR
— Michael McCormack MP (@M_McCormackMP) February 5, 2015
Riverina MP Michael McCormack tweeted this picture. He was mentioned last weekend in The Saturday Paper as a possible leadership contender, as a rival for Barnaby Joyce when Truss retires. McCormack dismissed it as a bit of mischief when I spoke to him earlier this week.
Though not on a train, Julie Bishop is living her dream. Here she is at Australian National University for a late lecture yesterday.
Updated
Andrew Robb also followed on from his suggestions yesterday that part of the Coalition’s problems stem from the policy “surprises” - broken promises - on the Medicare copayment and university deregulation.
He believes the knighting of Prince Phillip became a catalyst for discontent with the government. A tipping point for the backbench.
It was a catalyst and it was a symbol if you like of people’s concern about the propensity occasionally for us to drop surprises out there. It just became, I believe, a symbol of concern that it was things like the dropping of surprises that has meant that we’re not in the political position that we should be. Backbenchers, quite legitimately I think, are saying these things need to be addressed.
Andrew Robb said he was confident there were no leadership challengers to Tony Abbott but things still had to change.
Legitimately I think the backbench have been sending a message and our political position is softer than it could be and should be and must be if we are to retain office.
I do think that it’s not just a message to the leader, to Tony, but it’s to all of us including myself that we have to run some of the things we are doing differently than last year
It’s a double denial!!!
@BenFordham @TurnbullMalcolm Wrong information!! In Canberra this morning flew to Sydney filmed by @channel9 now with @FionaScottMP
— Julie Bishop (@JulieBishopMP) February 5, 2015
I cannot resist this from @MattGlassDarkly.
@gabriellechan So Malcolm's on a train, is he. I think I've seen this movie before.... #crisscross #politicslive pic.twitter.com/5nKcbrWtUD
— The Matt Hatter (@MattGlassDarkly) February 5, 2015
Andrew Robb says support for Tony Abbott is conditional
Trade minister Andrew Robb has been interesting this morning on politics generally and the leadership specifically. It is clear that Victorian Libs are having real wobbles on the Abbott leadership, following Peter Costello and Jeff Kennett’s unhelpfully timed interventions this week. Kevin Andrews is still plugging away strongly but conventional wisdom is that he would not get a berth in anyone else’s cabinet.
Here is Robb.
Is your support for Tony Abbott conditional?
Of course. I mean, in the end everyone - and Tony Abbott has said himself -that he will retain the authority and the leadership of the party on performance and he said that many times - in opposition and in government.
While it is not as strong as Arthur Sinodinos yesterday, it is a departure from the cabinet script.
Updated
Evidence suggests Malcolm is on a train.
@BenFordham you need to improve yr surveillance! I am on the train to Tuggerah. PoliticsinPub Nth Wyong 2nite pic.twitter.com/vc0VKybUAz
— Malcolm Turnbull (@TurnbullMalcolm) February 5, 2015
Malcolm Turnbull’s office says the Fordham tweet below is wrong and he is on a train on his way to the central coast.
More Twitter reporting from Ben Fordham of 2GB. We have not substantiated yet.
Interesting fact - @JulieBishopMP and @TurnbullMalcolm have arranged to meet at his Sydney home today. #auspol
— BenFordham (@BenFordham) February 5, 2015
The treasurer answered questions on the surplus, given this is what he woke up to in The Australian by David Uren and Adam Creighton.
THE federal budget faces further massive writedowns, with some estimates suggesting that up to $40 billion will be added to the deficit over four years as commodity prices fall and the economy slows.
The softening economy in the lead up to the May budget will add pressure on Joe Hockey to find new savings at a politically fraught time for the Abbott government.
The government is coming under increasing pressure to ditch the 1.5 per cent levy on big business intended to pay for the now-abandoned paid parental leave scheme. The Treasurer revealed yesterday that Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens had flown to Canberra after Tuesday’s surprise rate cut to brief cabinet on the bank’s increasingly gloomy view about the economic outlook.
Hockey said this morning “we are absolutely committed to a surplus” but did not name a year.
Adam Todd of Network Ten notes Hockey’s previous statements.
Hockey walked away from 2018 surplus goal in December. pic.twitter.com/ZDAcB2kTpo
— Adam Todd (@_AdamTodd) February 5, 2015
Joe Hockey has been out every day defending Tony Abbott on the leadership.
He is just about over the questions if this is anything to go by.
Note the standing ovation.
Updated
It is true the Nationals do not have the clout they once did but they do have form vetoing Liberal leaders.
Former leader of the then Country Party, Earle Page insisted he would not work with Billy Hughes after the 1922 election. The party then held the balance of power and insisted Hughes was removed and the Country Party got the deputy PM’s job.
After Harold Holt died, “Black Jack” McEwen vetoed senior Liberal Billy McMahon, though he backed down couple of years later after the coalition nearly lost the election in 1969. Here is the Australian Dictionary of Biography on the topic:
Following Holt’s death, McEwen was appointed caretaker prime minister on 19 December 1967. McMahon was a leading aspirant for the Liberal Party leadership and therefore the prime ministership, but McEwen told him bluntly: ‘Bill, I won’t serve under you . . . because I don’t trust you’. McMahon withdrew, and (Sir) John Gorton succeeded McEwen as prime minister on 10 January 1968.
Back to Warren Truss and his signal to the Liberal party room that the Nationals don’t support change. These comments were reported by Sid Maher in The Australian:
Asked whether the Coalition agreement was conditional, Mr Truss said: “Well the Coalition agreement is between Tony Abbott and me.
“And that’s an agreement we submitted to the Governor-General so that she was able to commission the government.
“So that is an agreement between the Nationals and the Liberals but particularly an agreement between Tony Abbott as leader of the Liberal Party and me as leader of the Nationals.’’
He said there would have to be a “different agreement’’ if there was a different leader.
“But at this stage I don’t think that is likely to be an issue,’’ Mr Truss said.
SBS correspondent reports what we missed.
@JoeHockey storms off after saying colleagues must stop leadership commentary & get on with fixing country #auspol pic.twitter.com/2toAbAutMm
— Catherine McGrath (@catherine_h_mcg) February 5, 2015
Joe Hockey is asked about the leadership issue.
And before all broadcasters cut him off to cut to Peter Greste, Hockey began a dissertation on why he came into politics.
I did it for my country.
Joe Hockey says big business will not pay more tax but will not elaborate on teh 1.5% levy on big business which would have paid for the now defunct paid parental leave scheme.
We will have more to say about the 1.5% levy in the next few weeks after we’ve consulted with colleagues and stakeholders but I can give this guarantee to larger businesses, they’ll not be paying any more tax than they are paying today.
Joe Hockey on small business tax cuts discussed by Tony Abbott in the Monday press club speech:
That will apply to small business, obviously with the changes to the paid parental leave scheme we will have more to say about the taxation arrangements in relation to companies but I say emphatically we will deliver the 1.5% cut in taxation for small business and we want to do more.
We are engaging with a conversation with the community on how we can make things stronger, says the treasurer.
Joe Hockey calls on the banks to pass through to consumers the full 25 basis point interest rate cut because it would mean more jobs for Australians.
Treasurer Joe Hockey is in Queanbeyan on jobs and tax cuts for small business.
Having cracked the New York Times yesterday, the leadership story has now made Mother Jones, the leftish US mag. The headline and first par:
One of the World’s Worst Climate Villains Could Soon Be Booted From Office
Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott is terrible on climate change. He has gutted his country’s historic cap-and-trade carbon pricing system, has called climate science “crap,” and has spoken out against strong international action to fight global warming. He praises coal as “good for humanity.”
There follows a dissertation on Australian politics for American readers.
Here’s a little Westminster System 101: Even though Australia’s leaders run colorful, personality-driven campaigns similar to US presidential contests, prime ministers aren’t actually elected by the people: Their fates are decided by a vote within the governing coalition. Abbott, a combative, uncompromising right-winger, has become deeply unpopular in Australia—and his colleagues in parliament are eyeing his disastrous polling numbers with mounting horror. As a result, Abbott is now facing a rapidly escalating revolt from within his own Liberal party (that’s Australia’s conservative party) that could culminate in a leadership challenge as early as next week.
The article is complete with celebrity-style photos of Contender Malcolm Turnbull and Contender Julie Bishop, worthy of a red carpet.
The emissions trading scheme is the rather large elephant in the party room that is blocking Contender Malcolm Turnbull.
Lenore Taylor has written a piece which identifies the mechanisms by which Turnbull could dance between raindrops and maintain his crazy acceptance of climate science and carbon trading.
This was the latest formulation by Turnbull on Q and A last year on the subject that shall not be mentioned.
If there is a global agreement that requires larger cuts in emissions – and I think that would be good if there were, but it’s got to be a global agreement – then obviously Australia would play its part and the government would consider what changes or extensions or whatever to Direct Action would need to be made to achieve that.
This is Lenore’s point.
But the possible “changes and extensions or whatever” for a tougher scheme – and a carbon price – are buried in the deal Tony Abbott’s climate minister, Greg Hunt, did with crossbench senators to pass the Direct Action legislation. They were put there because they are the only thing that would give Australia a chance of meeting the deeper emissions reduction targets it will almost certainly have to agree to at a United Nations meeting in Paris this December.
I will get to more country coalition politics in a minute - given it is my favourite topic.
But for all those suggesting that this is a media beat up, it is worth noting the prime minister’s close friend and uni buddy Greg Sheridan has described the chance of a spill as an “even-money bet”. He also introduced something Liberal backbenchers might not have thought of - the submarines.
IT is still close to an even-money bet Tony Abbott will be successfully challenged for the leadership of the Liberal Party, though the prospect is fading a little.
One very significant consequence of the loss of Abbott’s leadership would be the loss of the option to buy Japanese submarines, perhaps partly or even mostly built in Australia, and carrying American combat systems.
This is a deal that can be done only by Shinzo Abe in Japan and Abbott in Australia. It involves Japan and Australia both taking some political risk. And it is by far the most promising option for Australia to retain a serious submarine capability.
Updated
Warren Truss backs in Tony Abbott
It is significant that Warren Truss said the coalition is based on an agreement between him as National party leader and Tony Abbott, as Liberal party leader.
As social conservatives, the National party have much more in common with Abbott than with the contenders, Malcolm Turnbull and Julie Bishop. Country MPs are reporting as the leadership tension continues, they are getting increasingly shrill messages from their constituents they do not want to see, particularly, a Turnbull-led government.
The emissions trading scheme is a major sticking point for some country voters, which is closely associated with Turnbull. He has said recently that he wants to give Direct Action (a policy he once described as bullshit) a chance to work.
Meanwhile the National Party is down in Albury Wodonga, having their first party room meeting in Cathy McGowan’s seat of Indi. McGowan knocked off Liberal frontbencher Sophie Mirabella. The Nats will have a crack at the seat at the next election.
The deputy prime minister Warren Truss was asked about the leadership and leaves nobody in any doubt where the Nats stand. They don’t want change and they don’t like the contenders.
Here’s my colleague down the hall, Sid Maher.
Coalition agreement is between me and Tony Abbott: Truss
— Sid Maher (@sidmaher) February 4, 2015
Updated
Opposition leader Bill Shorten was asked this morning if he was ready to be prime minister.
He ducked the question, and talked about policy!!
Raising Medicare copayment, university deregulation and homelessness.
Tony Abbott is confident he will be prime minister next week
I am very confident. I know my colleagues. I trust my colleagues. I respect my colleagues. I know my colleagues all got elected to end the chaos and they are as determined as I am to make sure that that’s exactly what we do.
So sayeth Tony Abbott.
His key messages at a press conference this morning, as they have been all week, were thus.
- I am doing what the public elected me (public elected me, not Malcolm Turnbull or Julie Bishop),
- We’re cleaning up Labor’s mess (we might be bad but we are not as bad as the last mob),
- We’re building a strong and prosperous economy
- For a safe and secure Australia (things are scary - stick with us).
That is what I am doing every day and that is I believe what our colleagues want us to do. They want us to get on with government and stop the naval gazing. We were given chaos by the former Labor government and the last thing we need to do is recreate it. We want to be a strong and stable and adult government.
We will bring you all the news and commentary swirling around federal politics. As a primer, this is how it unfolded yesterday.
Join the conversation with me on Twitter at @gabriellechan.
