A string of five parliamentary seats along Greater London’s salubrious south-western border has formed a suburban barrier against Conservative forces ever since Tony Blair’s Labour landslide of 1997. Once firmly Tory, Twickenham, Sutton and Cheam and Carshalton and Wallington all fell to the Liberal Democrats, helped by tactical voting in the pockets of Labour support. The newly created Richmond Park and Kingston and Surbiton went the same way. If London is an island, this is its Orange Riviera.
There’s been some erosion lately, though. In 2010, Richmond Park fell to “Boris” chum Zac Goldsmith. It was the only capture made in those parts by David Cameron’s all-new “caring” Conservatives, but they re-gained control of Richmond council on the same day. Last year, they did the same with Kingston - another Lib-Con oscillator - leaving Sutton as the only London borough still in Lib Dem hands.
Things could get worse for the party on May 7. The Conservatives trail Labour in the capital but hope Lib Dem woes will mean they gain ground in this belt of affluence where Outer London meets the Surrey fringe. Business secretary Vince Cable will surely keep hold of Twickenham just as Goldsmith will expect to retain Richmond Park, even though his 2010 winning margin was narrow and his Lib Dem opponent Robin Meltzer is an admired campaigner in his party. But the other three seats are wobblier. The indispensable UK Polling Report defines Carshalton and Wallington and Kingston and Surbiton as “semi-marginal” and Sutton and Cheam as the finished, swingable article. With the Lib Dems polling no higher than 8% in London all year, how much danger are incumbents Tom Brake, Ed Davey and Paul Burstow in?
The usual rule applies: Lib Dem MPs, being relative rarities, tend to have high local profiles and get well dug in. Also, Ukip is eating into the Tory vote in London, which offers besieged Lib Dems in these parts consolation for the indignity of trailing the anti-immigration party in almost every London opinion survey so far this year. Farage’s Oddball Army took 8% of the vote in the Sutton borough election last year. Against that, some who gave their vote to Lib Dem candidates five years ago might disown them for their part in the coalition. There again, some who opted for a Tory might be less inclined to do so again and regard the Lib Dems as having been a civilising influence.
All these variables are in play, as Tom Brake acknowledges. But he claims that emails to activists shows Conservatives being urged to pour their energies into nearby Croydon Central, where their man Gavin Barwell is fighting for his Commons life, suggesting they aren’t really targeting Carshalton and Wallington at all. The claim is, I understand, hotly denied, but Tory chairman Grant Shapps himself has reportedly asked campaigners to spend less time helping Brake’s main opponent, a blue-blooded, Etonian BBC man called Matthew Maxwell Scott. Brake reckons he’s better organised on the ground anyway, with 400-500 youthful activists leafleting for all they’re worth. He hopes that long-running concerns over the future of Carshalton’s St Helier hospital could work against the Conservatives. An Ashcroft poll back in November looked pretty good for him.
He also mentions another factor that might work in his favour. It is perilous to generalise about London’s suburbs, which are as richly varied as the mighty metropolis itself, but demographic change has been altering them across the board. Brake, who was a councillor in Hackney for a short time, says that in his 25 years in politics in Carshalton and Wallington he’s noticed, in particular, the increasing ethnic mix in the area’s schools.
“It used to be mostly white with the children of a few Indian professionals,” he says, “but now there’s much more of a mix.” There’s also a Tamil community, some Kurds and some Muslims. Brake says he’s formed good links with them, just as he’s built support in his constituency’s council estates, of which there are more than might be expected. Changes that are helping Labour in Barnet and Redbridge might work to Lib Dem advantage in their battles with the Tories in the south-west. With the national contest so finely-balanced, the outcomes of those battles could have national consequences too.
