In a Cif piece yesterday I essayed that the Lib Dem surge is doing more damage to Tory ambitions in London than to Labour ones. Basically, Cleggmania looks to have spoiled Cameron's hopes of taking three or even four of the five Lib Dem seats in the suburban south-west and put Ealing Central and Acton at risk of turning orange. By contrast, Labour appears set to lose only Hampstead and Kilburn and Islington South and Finsbury to the Lib Dems, and was probably expecting to anyway.
I did, though, add the caveat that the Lib Dems' polling numbers could be "soft" - as a Guardian ICM poll has suggested - and mentioned that Labour in London claimed to have evidence supporting this. Yesterday late-afternoon I spoke to Tessa Jowell. She said that many of those telling canvassers they were thinking of voting Lib Dem were young, not sure they would vote at all and possibly not registered anyway. On the strength of this she insisted that Glenda Jackson and Emily Thornberry would hold on to their seats, helped by their local reputations: Jackson's for rebelliousness, Thornberry's for grassroots graft.
As for the London Labour vote in general, she insisted that it was holding up well thanks to a huge team effort on the ground, and that the Tories's campaign was "invisible." I pointed out that their candidates in Lab-Con marginals - Hammersmith, Westminster North, Tooting, Eltham - have had money thrown at them in vast quantities. She countered that the Conservatives hadn't even produced a London manifesto.
Our conversation took place as the entire media went mad over the Gordon Brown "bigot" remark. I've a hunch that the furore won't hurt Labour nearly as much as seems to have been assumed. Last night, after watching Harriet Harman had argued loyally but implausibly that Gord hadn't really meant what he'd said, BBC 24 asked four Christians in Norwich, including a female vicar, if the Rochdale "gaffe" had caused them to reassess how they would vote. All said "no" without missing a beat. They felt sorry for the PM. Their message was, "We've all done it, haven't we?" And we have, Londoners included.
Of course, if Jowell is right about the Lib Dem polling figures flattering to deceive, the Tories aren't out of the game in those Lib-Con marginals either. My money's on Cameron forming a government on 7 May, even if it's a minority one. But there's still a whole lot to play for, not least here in the capital.
