If the 2016 Formula One season has a joker to play, Singapore is throw-down time. That the long game already belongs to Mercedes is beyond doubt and the drivers championship is a two-horse race, but this gruelling race into the night at the Marina Bay circuit is the best chance their rivals have to take the spotlight in the final part of the season.
More specifically it is Red Bull that must be on a charge and they look to be making the most of their chance. While racing between the teams at the front has been an absent friend of late, Singapore under the stars could make for a welcome reunion.
Certainly the leadership of F1 sensed there was something in the air, with new chairman Chase Carey appearing alongside Bernie Ecclestone and causing bedlam in the paddock. He was attending the first race since Liberty Media took over the sport and adding a further frisson to the mix was also the man in charge of selling it, Donald Mackenzie, chairman of CVC.
Carey should be in for a fascinating introduction to F1. The two Red Bulls of Max Verstappen and Daniel Ricciardo were quickest in first practice on Friday, six-tenths of a second up on the two Mercedes, albeit while running the softer rubber tyres; and third and fourth in practice two, four-tenths back from Nico Rosberg, while Ferrari’s times suggest they too are extracting more from what has recently been a recalcitrant ride.
It was a similar story in Saturday’s final practice, Rosberg leading the way, but team-mate Lewis Hamilton only came in eighth, 1.4 seconds down on the German after locking his tyres in a turn.
Mercedes certainly know how difficult this weekend is going to be. This is, of course, not down to a miraculous improvement from Red Bull, but rather the challenge of Marina Bay.
Last year Mercedes simply could not make the super-soft tyres work here and in performance terms it was their worst of the hybrid era. Hamilton and Rosberg qualified in fifth and sixth, a full 1.4 seconds behind Sebastian Vettel in the Ferrari on pole, who went on to win the race. Worse still he finished 24.7sec clear of Rosberg, who was fourth while Hamilton retired with a power unit problem.
Rosberg described the weekend as the “most difficult race of the last two years,” and admitted it would not be something the team could overcome easily. His team-mate was even more circumspect. “I don’t come here with confidence,” said Hamilton. “I don’t know how we are going to be. Last year we arrived and were a second off the pace.”
Red Bull have improved over the season, in pace probably making the greatest steps forward of any of the teams including Mercedes, but it is not so much power – although Verstappen has an upgraded engine and Total are supplying them with a new fuel – that will make the difference here, as the car itself. The twisting 23 turns and short bursts of straight at Marina Bay demand traction out of the corners, strong braking and stability in set-up on a high-downforce package. The team have already proved this is a combination they have in their armoury: Ricciardo was denied a win at Monaco earlier this season only by an error during a pit stop.
At the same race, Mercedes failed to work the ultra-soft tyre (also to be employed here) in qualifying, where Ricciardo was again on top. They have admitted their car is to an extent a compromise, designed to work as well as possible at the greatest number of circuits but suffering where mechanical grip and downforce are key, as in Singapore. Their times were better on Friday, although Hamilton lost time due to a hydraulic problem, but the gaps are small.
Last year, Ricciardo was in contention and certainly would have been able to have a crack at Vettel but for two safety cars. The employment of the ultra-soft tyre, should give him or Verstappen a similar opportunity. Making the rubber work will be crucial and the Australian is optimistic that the RB12 has an advantage here. “Even if [car updates] don’t give you speed, lap time or downforce, sometimes they help you find the set-up quicker or easier,” Ricciardo said. “It expands the window and it’s easier to then be comfortable with the car, and then you’re always going to find a bit of speed.”
His team have a win already this season – Verstappen’s remarkable debut for them in Spain – but Ricciardo has not stood on the top step since Spa in 2014 and having felt “screwed” out of the victory in Monte Carlo, he is eager to make the most of this chance. “It’s obviously the next closest track to Monaco,” he said. “So sure we look at it as a good chance to try to get the victory I’ve been after this season. I believe we are a group of winners, so if there is a bit of pressure on us to get it done then I think we will thrive off that.”
Hamilton leads Rosberg by just two points in the world championship and Rosberg put himself under further pressure with an unforced error, locking up on ageing tyres and going into the wall at turn 18 during first practice. For both drivers and for Mercedes, who have had the season to themselves with pole position and wins in 13 of 14 races thus far, Singapore may yet prove to be the hardest hand to play.
