Celebrations for the 13th Association of South East Asian Nations (Asean) summit now taking place in Singapore have inevitably been clouded by the recent bloodshed in Burma - the delinquent member of this 10-nation regional bloc.
Some Asean parliamentarians have called for Burma's expulsion or at least suspension from Asean until it reaches some minimal level of civilised conduct. Since Burma joined in 1997, it has caused the grouping a series of diplomatic headaches over its refusal to release Burma's world-renowned leader Aung San Suu Kyi from house arrest and its failure to engage in steps towards serious dialogue and a transition away from military rule.
In the wake of September's bloody crackdown, the US, Canada and EU countries have imposed tighter economic sanctions on the Rangoon junta. After the killing of Buddhist monks and expressions of "revulsion" by a Singaporean diplomat at the time, many Burmese had expected Asean to apply more serious pressure on their recalcitrant member.
The Singapore summit marking 40 years of Asean has launched a new charter which enshrines good governance, the rule of law and human rights among its guiding principles. But the human rights provisions were so watered down that even Burma's prime minister General Thein Sein could sign this toothless declaration, making a mockery of the bloc's commitments.
In spite of deep embarrassment at Burma's serial delinquency, Asean heads of state dismissed out of hand any suggestion that they should get tough, or that one of their members should be disciplined or punished. Singapore, one of the Burma's major trading partners, commented that this was "not an option". But then such Asean stalwarts as Singapore and Malaysia have never be known for their love of human rights, given their use of a draconian internal security laws to detain anyone they don't like. No surprise then that Singapore banned any Burmese pro-democracy demonstrations during the summit.
Asean leaders tend to argue they have little influence over Burma compared to such economic heavyweights as China and India. This self-effacing rhetoric underplays Asean's strategic importance. Asean is responsible for 51.3% of Burma's foreign exchange earnings, with the selling of gas to Thailand alone accounting for 43% of such transactions. Moreover, Thailand and Singapore together have contributed 98.6% of the foreign direct investment into Burma's economy over the last two years. All the arguments about sanctions failing against Burma hinge on the absence of an international consensus to impose sanctions. Asean's rationale is not so much that sanctions won't work, but rather they have no wish to see sanctions bring the junta crashing down.
Their insistence on quiet diplomacy and "constructive engagement" is linked to fears that after the junta has been kicked out, chaos and disintegration must surely follow. One Asean official argued that the democratic opposition has no experience of governance so "if there is no leadership, it [Burma] will disintegrate. Would you want a Yugoslavia in your backyard?"
This line just happens to be almost identical to the junta's own brand of propaganda and its rationale for military rule: that it is only the armed forces that have prevented Burma from breaking up in the face of diverse ethnic separatist movements. Burma analyst and Harvard alumnus Aung Naing Oo, forced to live in exile, hotly disputes the notion that Burma could so readily become another Yugoslavia. He insists that most Karen, Shan, and other ethnic minorities do not advocate independence, but rather autonomy within a democratic state.
Asean has clearly failed the Burmese people and increasingly the opposition is skeptical that reconciliation talks being promoted by UN special envoy Ibrahim Gambari are going anywhere. Talks have been tried many times, but the Burmese senior generals have made it clear that they do not have the slightest interest in conceding an inch to Suu Kyi, and the heroic forces of opposition who refused to be cowered by bullets and terror.
What next for Burma? Not so far away Cambodia is conducting Asia's first genocide tribunal. East Timor should have been number two but Indonesian generals have so far got away with their murderous reign of occupation after the brutal annexation in 1975.
Now is the time for the international criminal court to avail itself of the extensive documentation of military atrocities and crimes against humanity committed since General Ne Win first seized power back in 1962. The only engagement that should be entertained with the top Burmese generals -the junta that has inflicted so much poverty and suffering - is constructive engagement with international justice. Instead of talking to them, the world should be prosecuting them. And it is Asean's shame that they can still regard a military clique of mass murderers as constituting a legitimate member of their south-east Asian club.
