Maybe I'm just a sucker for making myself a hostage to fortune (after my woeful iPhone predictions) but tonight's pre-announced Apple launch of new notebooks (the company's word) has some people in a sweat.
They're expecting a "brick" made of diecast aluminium, carved by Goldfinger's lasers from a single block. They're expecting cheap Macbooks. They're expecting a new MacBook Pro. They've got photos of things. They've seen the price list.
As Kara Swisher comments at AllThingsD, it's "Apple, Apple, all around, but not a drop of thinking".
So here's my thinking.
Making a cheaper notebook makes a lot of sense. The US economy is tanking (no matter what its stock market is doing; that's not an indicator of economic activity), so making stuff people can buy for cheaper is sensible. A notebook costing under $900 would be very smart ahead of what will be a constrained Christmas for many there. (In the UK, it might check in at around £500.)
Don't expect a tablet. Don't expect an ultraportable (aka "liliputer"). Reasons: introducing a tablet would be commercial suicide: it's expensive, it's a niche market even for Windows (which Microsoft has been pushing, like water uphilll, for seven years now). And an ultraportable would have to be more expensive in a market that thrives on being low-cost; and anyway Apple already has its offering in "light", which is the MacBook Air. Plus, introducing either would mean a whole marketing effort - which Apple might prefer to keep for next January, and MacWorld, when it could also see how the economy is panning out (or down).
Do: expect some tweaks to the products. John Gruber, who is typically right about these things, has some "educated guesses":
The new regular MacBooks look like 13-inch versions of the new MacBook Pro. Another single-piece all-aluminum chassis, the same black border around the display, and the same new no-button multi-touch trackpads. The displays are backlit LEDs, like the 15-inch Pros. (Engadget, which is reporting that the regular MacBooks aren't being revised, is wrong. They're not just being announced but should be shipping by the end of the week.)
Interestingly, Gruber says that there won't be a low-priced MacBook. And recall that Apple did introduce the not-cheap iPod in October 2001, a month after the September 11 attacks in the US.
And finally, if it comes up and you're not sure whether you should skip buying them.. Michael Gartenberg, a consumer devices analyst, has advice on "when to skip that purchase".
