A report from Ian Rapoport on NFL Network Wednesday morning indicated the Atlanta Falcons are aiming to trade up from the No. 16 pick to acquire Florida cornerback CJ Henderson.
Assuming that leaked info isn’t a smokescreen by the Falcons, if Henderson makes it to No. 13, the 49ers could become a trade partner for Atlanta. Perhaps San Francisco also covets Henderson, in which case a trade is out of the question. However, if the 49ers are unhappy with the available players at 13, they’d be glad to field a call from the Falcons about a move back.
The Buccaneers and Broncos both pick between the Falcons and 49ers, and the Broncos could easily scoop up a cornerback after losing Chris Harris Jr. in free agency. Getting ahead of them will be a priority for Atlanta, and if the Jets and Raiders both take receivers at Nos. 11 and 12, the 49ers suddenly become a prime trade candidate.
Should all that play out, here are a few guesses at what a trade might look like using the DraftTek trade value chart:
Trade No. 1
49ers receive pick Nos. 16, 78 and 119
Falcons receive pick Nos. 13 and 156
This is a small overpay for the Falcons from a pick value standpoint, but it’s worth it if they believe Henderson is a shutdown corner. San Francisco only moves back three spots while scooping up picks in the third and fourth round.
To move back three spots, the 49ers only give up their first of two fifth-round selections. At No. 16, they’re still in a position to come away with a quality player that fits a need. By adding third and fourth-round picks with this move, they’d also give themselves added flexibility with the No. 31 pick where they can afford to use it if they love a prospect, but they can also move back to give themselves more mid-round ammo.
Trade No. 2
49ers get pick Nos. 16 and 78
Falcons get pick No. 13
This is a lot like the first option only the Falcons hold on to their fourth-round pick and the 49ers keep their fifth-round selection. The important note with this swap is that they two sides land a little closer together on the trade value chart.
Atlanta gets to climb up three places and the 49ers get a third-round pick for their trouble. That’s probably not ideal for them in a move back, but it still opens the door to a little flexibility with the 31st pick. If San Francisco isn’t in love with a prospect at 13, and they can snag a third-rounder to move back a few spots, it wouldn’t be a bad deal even if it’s not perhaps peak value.
Trade No. 3
49ers get pick Nos. 16 and 47
Falcons get pick No. 13
This is the kind of move that could make the 2020 draft for the 49ers. They get a middle-of-the-second-round selection for their trouble of moving back three spots. It’s the most lopsided of the trades so far, but with a third and two fourths to work with Atlanta can afford a bit of an overpay.
Recouping the second-round pick they lost in the Dee Ford trade would be massive for the 49ers, but they wouldn’t be out of the woods from a draft capital standpoint. They’d still likely move out of the 31st pick to add more selections on Days 2 and 3. Doing so gives them added maneuverability later in the draft. Quantity would probably jump quality for the 49ers if they’re adding multiple mid-round picks vs. one second-round choice, but this is a good haul if they think their favorite prospect will be there at No. 16.
Trade No. 4
49ers get pick Nos. 16, 119 and a 2021 Round 2 pick
Falcons get pick No. 13
This is a deal with an eye toward the future. Atlanta gets to hold onto its second and third-round picks and the later of its two fourth-rounders, but they give away their second-round pick in next year’s draft.
For San Francisco, this only makes sense if they’re not in love with a prospect early and think they can get a decent haul in this year’s draft for No. 31. They’d still add a fourth-rounder this year, and they can worry about piling up a few more picks in subsequent trades back. Next year’s draft could be more about replacing starters than this year’s, so the second-rounder is a nice consolation for a not-so-big haul in 2020.
