Kanit Sangsubhan is a key architect of the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC), a new engine for growth to replace the Eastern Seaboard model, which turned the country into an industrial powerhouse over three decades but has become outmoded.
Investment growth in Thailand has been subdued, and the country's GDP growth rates are subpar.
"Before I'd initiated the EEC project, I looked at the Thai economic data and found that our investment was relatively low," says the 60-year-old Mr Kanit, secretary-general of the EEC Office. "Some people have said that 3% growth is the country's new normal, but I think our economic growth has the potential to reach 5%."
Low investment is what's dragging down economic growth, he says: "Investment growth has averaged 3% over the past 10 years, but Thailand needs investment growth of 10%, so it's necessary to ramp up investment and point out what industries are our focus for future investment."
The EEC is retrofitting Chachoengsao, Chon Buri and Rayong, the provinces of the Eastern Seaboard development project, to revitalise investment and foster sustainable economic growth.
To return the GDP growth rate to 5% and promote the three provinces as an investment base and next-generation technology centre are the ideas at the heart of the EEC scheme, Mr Kanit says.
The flagship project's slogan, Journey of the New Dawn, is reflected in the EEC logo, an orange-coloured junk.
The first five of the government's 10 targeted S-curve industries were picked from a Baker & McKenzie study of which local industries could be adapted to survive amid disruptive forces.
Mr Kanit says the EEC Office has learned from some of the Eastern Seaboard's missteps.
The first five S-curve sectors are next-generation automotive; smart electronics; affluent, medical and wellness tourism; food for the future; and agriculture and biotechnology.
The government later added robotics; logistics and aviation; biofuels and biochemicals; digital; and medical services.
"We've learned from the past that the Eastern Seaboard has several problems," Mr Kanit says. "Trains and airports have not been used to create any benefit to the project, and environmental issues have received too little attention, constraining the project from growing bigger, so we've taken these experiences into account with the EEC scheme."
He says he's unconcerned that the EEC plan could be derailed if an elected government comes to power, as the project is intended to bolster the overall economy.
"The point of no return for the EEC project is the high-speed train linking three airports and the auction for improvements to U-tapao airport," he says. "Both will modernise the logistics system, and the airports will be a centre of the new cities of the future. They will form an aerotropolis in which airports are at the centre with the cities growing around them. Take China's Zhengzhou airport as a great example. The economy is centred on the airport, and the bigger the city is, the more investment-worthiness for rail and ports."
Although Mr Kanit is undertaking a national project with an investment size of at least 500 billion baht over the next five years, he prefers to keep a low profile, a management style that he says helps him work more easily with others.
Working with key figures has shaped Mr Kanit's thoughts and provided insights into future economic drivers.
He says he's lucky to have worked with and learned from many key figures, including Sanoh Unakul, a former Bank of Thailand governor and ex-secretary-general of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB); Staporn Kavitanond, the late secretary-general of the Board of Investment; Kosit Panpiemras, the late finance minister; and Supachai Panitchpakdi, the one-time deputy prime minister.
"Working with the country's gurus helped me get a great hands-on experience," Mr Kanit says. "Each has strengths and weaknesses, but we must learn from the ways they think. I've learned a lot from Mr Supachai, he is the grand master."
A genius student when he was young, Mr Kanit nonetheless was once at risk of failure to meet his graduation requirements for a doctoral degree after obtaining an F grade in a macroeconomics course at the University of Toronto.
Mr Kanit in a relaxed mood at the Chao Praya riverside.
He studied hard to avoid failing, and the effort paid off when he was awarded an A grade. Ultimately he was one of four who attained the degree, while another four failed to make it.
"During the final year of my doctoral education in Canada, I also got a part-time lecturer job at the university and was offered the full-time job later, but I refused the offer because I didn't want to be a second-class citizen," Mr Kanit says. "After I came back to Thailand, [former NESDB secretary-general] Phisit Pakkasem approached me to become a member of an advisory team to Mr Supachai, who at that time was deputy prime minister in Chuan Leekpai's administration."
Before joining Mr Supachai's team, Mr Kanit headed the overall planning division of the NESDB and was one of the few who voiced alarm ahead of the 1997 financial crisis. He felt that the government's think tank had adopted wrong-headed policies in handling hefty flows of investment from overseas.
He was also one of those who recommended devaluing the baht before the financial problem snowballed into a crisis.
"At that time, many people didn't like me because I'm outspoken," Mr Kanit says. "Devaluation was a big issue, but we ran out of options. When the crisis erupted, I quarrelled with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank", as both lenders in his view prescribed the wrong medicine for Thailand.
Mr Supachai, who was deputy prime minister at that moment, suggested that the government sort out 20% of the bad debt to make banks functional again, but the suggestion did not come to fruition until Thaksin Shinawatra's government put it in practice, Mr Kanit says.
"The most controversial issue was the IMF's proposal to raise interest rates to 17%, and I totally disagreed with it because most private operators could not survive, but the Bank of Thailand surprisingly supported the idea," he says. "When the crisis broke out, policymakers did not have enough knowledge to address the problem by themselves, and they then chose to believe others who they thought were God."
The spike in interest rates failed to dispel panic, but it did have the effect of collapsing local business operators and fuelling an upsurge in non-performing loans.
"Amid crisis, confidence must be built and pricing tools cannot be used to overcome the crisis, so don't deploy pricing instruments to solve the problem, as they will never succeed," Mr Kanit says.
After failing to persuade authorities to use his proposals to address the crisis, Mr Kanit asked Mr Supachai for a recommendation to work at the ADB Institute in Tokyo. There, his research confirmed that the 1997 crisis was brought on by fast inflows and outflows of offshore capital.
Japanese firms with operations in Thailand had offered to help during the crisis by repatriating money to alleviate pressure on the baht, but the IMF brushed aside the offer, Mr Kanit says.
Upon returning to Thailand, he was asked by Tarrin Nimmanahaeminda, the finance minister at the time, to help set up the Finance Ministry's Fiscal Policy Research Institute.
Mr Kanit also helped Olarn Chaipravat develop the Asian Bond Markets Initiative, which aims to develop efficient and liquid bond markets in Asia, enable better utilisation of Asian savings for Asian investments, and prevent future crises.
Moreover, he has played a role in developing a sustainable fiscal model in which Thailand's public debt is limited to 60% of GDP.
Mr Kanit worked at the Finance Ministry for a decade and held a number of seats in both the public and private sectors -- including the Bank of Thailand, Thai Airways International, THAI Smile Airways, the National Health Security Office, Thanachart Capital and Tisco Bank -- before joining Charoen Pokphand (CP) Group, the country's biggest agribusiness conglomerate.
At CP, Mr Kanit had a role in setting out Myanmar's economic policies, including the Village Fund, as CP chairman Dhanin Chearavanont was an adviser to the president of Myanmar.
Unlike Thailand's Village Fund, Myanmar's prohibits borrowers from using loans to buy consumer products and requires investment solely in agricultural business. As a result, the non-performing loans of Myanmar's Village Fund remain at a low level.
Development should not focus on Thailand and leave neighbouring countries behind, Mr Kanit says.
"We don't want to compete with neighbouring countries," he says. "Don't adopt the Western thought that stepping on others is the way to success. Such concepts will not be applied to the EEC project."
