The shudder was involuntary, triggered by the news that a Redbridge poll had declared One Nation was Australia's most popular political party.
Not because of Pauline Hanson's policies, of which there are very few if the party's incoherent website is any indication. Not because of Pauline herself; I've had 30 years to become inured to her tremulous voicing of bigotry and divisiveness. Not because of One Nation's stunts, scandals and bust-ups over the years either.
No, I shuddered because populist governments inevitably end in disaster for the countries which elect them. Even mainstream parties which flirt with populism end up regretful. Look no further than Tony Abbott's brief stint as PM for evidence of that. Great as a populist, aggrieved opposition leader; so hopeless in government his colleagues were compelled to punt him.
Research by the Centre of Economic Policy Research published five years ago tracked the performance of populist governments dating back to 1900. It found that populism is serial in nature. If a country has had a populist government once, it was more likely to have one again, something which defies logic given the CEPR's other main conclusions.
These were that populist leadership was economically costly, associated with long-term decline in consumption and production, and politically disruptive, leading to long-term institutional decay.
You only have to look across the Pacific to see how populism the second time around has been disastrous for the US. Inflation is up, thanks to a costly war few Americans want and from which there is no easy exit. The focus has been on fuel prices but inflation is spreading to the wider American economy. This despite the populist president's election pitch to keep America out of foreign wars and to tackle inflation.
It's not just painful for Americans. The cost of living pressures driving Australians towards the populist One Nation have, ironically, been made worse by the actions of the populist-in-chief who, also ironically, is becoming less popular by the day. Trump's approval rating is at a record low 34 per cent - as low as Jimmy Carter's when he left office. Even his own voters are turning against him.
So why is One Nation surging when the evidence in plain sight tells us populism is a disaster?
Frustration that the major parties have so far failed to address a cost of living crunch that's been worsening since 2022. A sense that mainstream politics has left people behind. The attraction of simplistic solutions to complex problems. They're all part of it. One Nation appeals because it reflects the resentment of people who feel the system does not work for them and gives voice to their grievance.
Populism is at its most compelling in opposition. But as the CEPR research shows, it's not great at governing. Having crunched the numbers to assess the performance of both leftist and right-wing populist governments its conclusion is stark: "When populists come to power, they can do lasting economic and political damage. Countries governed by populists witness a substantial decline in real GDP per capita, on average. Protectionist trade policies, unsustainable debt dynamics, and the erosion of democratic institutions stand out as commonalities of populists in power."
And therein lies the great conundrum. The very people to whom One Nation appeals are likely to be the ones who stand to suffer the most should it ever be elected to government.
HAVE YOUR SAY: Is Pauline Hanson prime minister material? Would Australia be worse or better off should she ever get the top job? How seriously should we take One Nation's growing popularity? What should Labor and the Coalition do to counter it? Email us: echidna@theechidna.com.au
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IN CASE YOU MISSED IT:
- Almost three million Australian workers will receive a 4.75 per cent pay boost after the Fair Work Commission's annual minimum and award wage review.
- Australia has sanctioned Israeli settler farming outposts in the West Bank for the first time in response to escalating violence in the contested Palestinian territory.
- David Farley, the first One Nation MP to be elected to the House of Representatives, has taken his seat in the lower house, but has left the door open to voting against his party.
THEY SAID IT: "You see in times of crisis that extremist forces, populist forces, have a better ground to oversimplify things and to manipulate feelings. Feelings of fear." - Jose Manuel Barroso, former European Commission president
YOU SAID IT: When our first astronaut told John about the Australian space pioneers who inspired her, he asked readers about their role models and the dreams they pursued when young.
"I think we have all dreamed of doing something different to our chosen course," writes Arthur. "Learning to fly was one of my alternatives but I managed to fit it into my medical work and provide services in a less populous area. flying for one hour was so much more enjoyable than driving for four hours each way."
Emile writes: "All I wanted to be from the age of eight or nine was an architect like my dad. I remember vividly attending a site visit with him for a prefabricated house at Allambie Heights in Sydney for which he was the architect and being impressed by the control he exerted over the whole process, from drawings to getting the house to lockup in one day. That was about 1955 or 1956. He worked very hard and instilled his work ethic and the need for absolute integrity deeply into my psyche. So, I too became an architect and went into private practice immediately I graduated, and retired from that after 55 years. I owe him so much - and to my chagrin, never told him."
"I remember it clearly: I wanted to be a lumberjack in Canada, rolling logs down a river," writes Stuart. "The influence was National Geographic. That or a train driver. Instead, I became a military pilot and vigneron."
