Leeds United have been tipped to be relegated by just a single goal this season.
Stats website FiveThirtyEight has produced a data-based prediction for the Premier League season - and they feel the Whites face a 33 per cent chance of going down.
Leeds are tipped to finish second bottom, level on 39 points with Fulham and Newcastle United.
Yet the Magpies would survive on goal difference by a single goal, with their -21 difference being narrowly better than Leeds and Fulham's -22.
Fulham have been given a 32 per cent likelihood of going down, with Newcastle standing a 31 per cent chance of finishing in the bottom three.
At the top end of the table, Manchester City have been tipped to regain the Premier League title, being given a 57 per cent chance of winning the league.
Last season’s champions Liverpool are tipped to come second, eight points behind Man City, with a 24 per cent chance of defending their crown.
Manchester United and Chelsea round out the top four - both are said to have over a 50 per cent chance of qualifying for the Champions League - but remain some way off the top two.
Tottenham Hotspur and Leicester City both have a 20 per cent chance of qualifying for the Champions League but are tipped to come in fifth and sixth respectively but level on points.
West Brom are predicted to finish bottom, three points off safety, and are said to have a 42 per cent chance of being relegated.
Aston Villa, with 25 per cent, are the next most likely team to be relegated after Newcastle, with four more teams - Burnley, Sheffield United, Brighton and Crystal Palace - all being ranked at 20 per cent or over to go down.
Predicted table
Manchester City - 88 pts
Liverpool - 80 pts
Manchester United - 71 pts
Chelsea - 69 pts
Tottenham - 57 pts
Leicester City - 57 pts
Arsenal - 56 pts
Wolves - 54 pts
Everton - 51 pts
Southampton - 50 pts
West Ham - 47 pts
Burley - 44 pts
Sheffield United - 43 pts
Brighton - 43 pts
Crystal Palace - 42 pts
Aston Villa - 42 pts
Newcastle - 39 pts
Fulham - 39 pts
Leeds United - 39 pts
West Brom - 36 pts
How it works
FiveThirtyEight predict the outcome for the season using SPI ratings, which the website says are their best estimate of a team's overall strength.
Each team is given an attacking rating that represents the number of goals it is expected to score against an average team, and a defensive rating to represent the amount of goals it would concede.
Those ratings produce an overall SPI rating, which represents the percentage of points it would be expected to take on average from a game. Those ratings are then compared to an opposition's rating to simulate the outcome of a match.
From that, it is possible to simulate the outcome of a whole season.
