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George Bennett & James Chittick

Leeds United's relegation likelihood calculated as Premier League prepares for dramatic run-in

Leeds United’s relegation likelihood has increased significantly according to Opta’s latest round of predictions.

With the race for Premier League survival heating up to be one of the closest in years, Opta have offered their latest round of relegation probabilities following the last round of games, and it’s bad news for Leeds fans.

Having lost 1-0 at Chelsea on Saturday, Leeds saw their chance of relegation jump from 37.1% to 45.5%. While this is partly due to their own loss, wins for Southampton and Wolves will have poured salt on Leeds’ wounds, as teams around the relegation zone continue to pick up vital points.

No side has yet been cut adrift, and as such the picture changes drastically from week to week. But despite their struggles, Leeds fans can at least take comfort that they are still not among the three clubs predicted to face the drop.

Read more: Leeds United have Premier League survival lessons to learn from 2022 escape act

Everton are now the team most likely to go down according to Opta. Following the weekend’s 2-2 draw with Nottingham Forest, the Toffees remained in the bottom three, and are currently in 17th place on 22 points after 26 games.

But despite gaining a point, they lost ground on some of their relegation rivals, and are only a point above the foot of the table, with both Southampton and Bournemouth having a game in hand.

Ahead of the last round of Premier League games, Opta gave Everton a 66.5% chance of being relegated, which rose to 67% after this weekend’s games.

While that’s only a slight change, it is results around them that have given Everton the highest chance of going down according to this latest prediction.

Southampton were the weekend’s biggest winners, with the Saints beating Leicester City 1-0 at St Mary’s to claw themselves off the bottom of the table for the first time in 2023.

Prior to their victory, they had an 80.4% chance of going down, which has now dropped by 15.1% to 65.3%, less than Everton and Bournemouth, though still one of the three clubs expected to drop.

In the process, they dragged Leicester back into the relegation mix, but with just a 7.7% chance to go down, the Foxes are still expected to survive by a fair margin.

Bournemouth are the third side still predicted to go down, as they saw a 2-0 lead at the Emirates evaporate before league leaders Arsenal dealt them the cruellest of blows to win 3-2 deep into added time.

That moved the Cherries from a 63.8% chance to 66.8%, which means they are now more likely to be relegated than Southampton. Wolves were the other side besides the Saints to gain ground over the weekend, as their 1-0 win against Tottenham saw them climb to 13th position.

Their relegation probability dropped from 14.9% before the Spurs game to only 5.0% following the win. Every other side in the nine-way bottom half scrap saw their odds of relegation increase.

Opta’s chances of Premier League relegation in 2022-23:

Team % March 3 % March 6 % Change

Crystal Palace 1.2 2.3 +1.1

Wolves 14.9 5.0 -9.9

Leicester City 4.1 7.7 +3.6

West Ham United 9.0 13.0 +4.0

Nottingham Forest 22.9 27.4 +4.5

Leeds United 37.1 45.5 +8.4

Southampton 80.4 65.3 -15.1

Bournemouth 63.8 66.8 +3.0

Everton 66.5 67 +0.5


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