Leeds United will finish their first season back in the Premier League in 13th place, according to analysis by FiveThirtyEight.
Leeds are currently 14th in the top flight, with 14 points from their opening 12 matches.
Marcelo Bielsa’s side have made a real impression so far this season with their distinctive man-to-man marking system and high intensity pressing game, but their overall form has been inconsistent.
Friday’s 2-1 home defeat by West Ham United means Leeds have won just one of their last six Premier League matches, suffering heavy defeats to Leicester, Crystal Palace and Chelsea.
They were unfortunate to leave the Emirates Stadium with just a point after battering 10-man Arsenal in a 0-0 draw last month, while the 1-0 victory at Everton on 28 November was another impressive display.
The picture provided by their first 12 games back in the top flight for the first time since 2004 is a good one according to FiveThirtyEight.
The website’s statistical model reckons Leeds are on course to win 45 points over 38 games this season, enough to place them 13th - a very comfortable 12 points off relegation.
However, their numbers do give Leeds a 10% chance of being relegated, putting them in the same bracket as fellow mid-table sides Crystal Palace, Newcastle and Brighton.
For those dreaming of an amazing winning streak from now on in, it just isn’t going to happen: there is apparently less than a 1% chance of a top four finish.
FiveThirtyEight also predict that Leeds’ goal difference will take a beating between now and the end of the campaign, dropping from -5 now to -14 on 23 May.
Leeds have the chance to improve their recent form when they host Newcastle United at Elland Road on Wednesday.
The Magpies have won their last two Premier League matches to move up to 11th place, but have been hit by a coronavirus outbreak which has limited Steve Bruce’s options.
FiveThirtyEight also offer predictions on individual matches and give Leeds a 47 per cent chance of winning it and calculate a Newcastle victory at 27 per cent, with the draw at 26 per cent.
After that, Leeds travel to Old Trafford to play Manchester United on 20 December before finishing 2020 with games against struggling Burnley and West Bromwich Albion.
