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Joe Donnohue

Leeds United relaxed on Raphinha transfer chatter as reasons behind Liverpool interest revealed

A 24-year-old Brazilian winger with 15 goal involvements in his debut Premier League campaign not currently playing for one of the 'Big Six' is always going to be a transfer target for top clubs.

Liverpool's reported interest in Raphinha is said to have originated in February, when Italian journalist Gianluca Longari named the Reds alongside Manchester United as interested parties.

More recently, Longari claims Liverpool now 'lead the race' for the Brazilian - but how can there be a race when the prize at the end is not for sale?

Leeds United have staunchly defended their Raphinha position this summer: he is not available, at any price.

In fact, it would take an astronomical offer to lure Leeds' key decision-makers into even thinking about entertaining a bid.

The club have one of the lowest wage bills in the top flight. Unlike many other Premier League and Championship clubs, this summer Leeds do not need to sell to abide by Financial Fair Play regulations, or remain afloat.

Leeds' revenue streams remain healthy, and their immense commercial potential is yet to be realised with fans only just trickling back into Elland Road on the final day of the season.

Not to mention the £120 million figure Leeds are expected to earn for their participation in the Premier League during 2020/21, made up of equal share payments, TV revenue - both domestic and international - and merit payments for finishing as high as ninth.

In short, Leeds do not need to sell.

However, it isn't difficult to understand why Liverpool of all clubs would be at the forefront of the supposed 'race'.

The Merseyside club's recruitment department is headed up by Michael Edwards, a data-driven individual whose ability to identify top level players for mid-level fees has played its part in Liverpool's recent success.

The Reds have made a habit of pillaging clubs further down the English footballing pyramid. Virgil van Dijk and Sadio Mane were added from Southampton, among others, Andy Robertson from Hull City, Georginio Wijnaldum from Newcastle and Joe Gomez from Charlton Athletic.

From a statistical standpoint, Raphinha has excelled in his first season at Leeds.

Expected Assists (xA) is a metric which measures the quality of any given pass to a player who then subsequently takes a shot.

In short, a player who has a high xA figure, tends to be a strong creator, and will over the course of a season earn many assists.

This past season, Raphinha recorded 8.1 xA, according to FBRef.com. That means he was expected to register eight assists.

In actuality, he got nine, but the fact his xA and actual assists tally were relatively close, suggests he was good value for creativity across the season.

Curiously, Trent Alexander-Arnold also recorded 8.1 xA. Only Kevin de Bruyne, Jack Grealish, Son Heung-min and Bruno Fernandes recorded higher figures.

This places Raphinha amongst the elite creators at the top level of English football, whilst playing for a side who finished mid-table.

For Liverpool's data-focused recruitment department, this will have been flagged.

They would stand no chance of luring De Bruyne, Son, Grealish or Fernandes to Anfield - the fees would be too high. The next best is Raphinha.

Roberto Firmino and Mohamed Salah recorded just 6.4 and 6.3 xA respectively throughout 2020/21, suggesting Raphinha was a more consistently creative presence. He also did it in fewer minutes.

Consequently, it isn't hard to see why Liverpool would be interested, but their chances of landing the 24-year-old are a different matter altogether.

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