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Nestor Watach

The £27m transfer bullet Leeds United dodged in the summer transfer window

It feels like a long time has passed since Leeds United were linked with emerging talent across European football on an almost daily basis over the summer.

The focus is now fully on the on-field matters, with the transfer window closed and Marcelo Bielsa’s squad settled, having made an excellent start to life back in the Premier League.

But cast your mind back to July, when the possibilities of who might be arriving seemed endless as the dust had just about settled after the promotion celebrations.

One of the early names to be linked with a move to Elland Road was rising Gent star Jonathan David, with seemingly more to the rumours than the tabloid tittle-tattle of certain other names.

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"Contacts were stopped this week, but other clubs are still interested, with much better proposals even, including Leeds,” announced club chairman Ivan De Witte in July.

The 20-year-old Canadian international had established himself as one of the most in-demand youngsters in European football thanks to his prolific form for the Belgian outfit, with 23 goals in 40 appearances in all competitions last term.

Having also averaged almost a goal a game for his national side (11 in 12) and was named by Belgian outlet Sport/Foot Magazine as the player of the season for 2019/20.

The most impressive and eye-catching thing about David at Gent was how he dramatically overperformed his expected goal numbers - the 23 goals he scored last season came from just 16.02xG, maintaining a long-term continuation of his clinical shooting ability.

That’s perhaps what proved most enticing for Victor Orta at Leeds, having watched the club achieve promotion in spite of Patrick Bamford dramatically, wildly underperforming his xG rate down in the Championship.

David ended up signing for Lille, who could promise Europa League football and a credible challenge for the top-four in Ligue 1, while Leeds looked elsewhere for their forward options, bringing in Rodrigo Moreno for a club-record fee from Valencia.

Few Leeds fans are currently looking back at the ones that got away, with Rodrigo looking a natural part of Bielsa’s side, who sit sixth in the Premier League after taking a more than respectable 10 points from the first six games.

Spain’s number nine has opened his account with a vital equaliser in the 1-1 draw against Manchester City and he’s looking better every week as he adapts to the attacking midfield slot behind Bamford. The deal currently looks like a masterstroke from Orta.

But things aren’t going quite so well for David over at Lille, having made a difficult start to life in northern France, yet to open his goalscoring account, or register an assist, from the 10 appearances (nine starts) he’s made so far.

Lille are unbeaten in those 10 games and haven’t often haven’t struggled for goals elsewhere - beating Strasbourg 3-0, Lens 4-0, and Sparta Prague 4-1 - but the lack of firepower from the new man leading the line is beginning to become a concern.

The club are joint top with PSG at the top of Ligue 1 but won’t be able to maintain an unlikely title challenge by carrying a striker who isn’t scoring.

There are big shoes to fill for the forward, who arrived for a club-record €30m, replacing Victor Osimen, the Nigerian international who scored 13 Ligue 1 goals last term before moving to Napoli for €83m.

“He is young, I have had this discussion with him, he seems impervious to the pressure relating to the size of his transfer, the world of football is what it is,” said Lille coach Christophe Galtier last month as his search for a first goal continued.

“He knows he is well below his level, but he knows that he can count on me and his team-mates to rediscover his form and that comes with work every day.

“He is an excellent finisher. Maybe he missed the chance vs Metz because he was precipitating, but he is very efficient in the box, we see it in training.”

Since then he was dropped from the starting XI for the first time and brought on for the final 11 minutes as Lille chased a late winner in a 1-1 draw with Nice, and received increased criticism after missing a penalty in the midweek 2-2 draw with Celtic.

It’s far too early to write David off or make any definitive conclusions as he goes through a difficult adaptation period in a new environment.

But his story at Lille, so far at least, is an interesting case study in how streaky finishing can be - almost the exact opposite of Bamford’s journey at Leeds.

Bamford is overperforming his xG this season (Six goals to 3.3xG via The Athletic’s Tom Worville ), having done so poorly with his finishing last term.

David, who was famous for his dead-eyed finishing ability in front of goal at Gent, is yet to score from 660 minutes of first-team action at Lille.

Over that period he’s registered 15 shots (six off target, five on target, four blocked - via WhoScored.com ) with 3.0xG ( via FBref.com ) in all competitions.

That’s broadly the same as Bamford’s underlying numbers in terms of the quality of chances coming his way.

Last season you’d never have bet it would be Bamford at the top end of the Premier League goalscoring charts and David yet to score, given their respective places in terms of the extreme ends of xG over and underperformance, yet here we are.

Keep fashioning good chances, and the chances are the rest will come along naturally.

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