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Josh Williams

Leeds United deserve to be promoted to the Premier League - these are the numbers that prove it

Millwall reached the final of the FA Cup, Charlton Athletic and Bolton Wanderers finished in the top half of the Premier League table, and Middlesbrough qualified for the UEFA Cup; it was the year that Leeds United suffered relegation from England's top-flight.

Since, the Yorkshire club have competed to restore their status, only to consistently fall short. 16 years have passed, but United now appear to be on the verge of finally making their long-awaited return to the business end of the football pyramid.

After 43 Championship matches, they are top of the division. The gap to third place is six points and - unless a monumental collapse materialises - Marcelo Bielsa is going to deliver the objective that he was appointed to achieve in 2018.

Crucially, though, United appear set to secure promotion by becoming the best-performing team in the league. Various underlying numbers capture the Whites in a positive light, and they offer an insight into why Bielsa is about to accomplish the feat.

West Bromwich Albion and Brentford have scored more goals than United but Expected Goals (xG) - which tends to provide an accurate summary of whether a team deserved fewer or more goals largely based on their shot locations - suggests that United have showcased the best attack.

xG - above all - is a performance indicator, and United's total is currently around 78.8 goals. They have bagged only 69, meaning they have underperformed by roughly 10 goals when it comes to actually finishing the shooting opportunities they have generated.

West Brom and Brentford, on the other hand, have overperformed having been expected to bag 64.6 and 67.7 goals respectively but actually scoring 74 and 78.

Leeds United have the best attack in the Championship according to Expected Goals (xG) (@DistanceCovered)

The high quality version of the above graphic can be viewed here.

United's high xG mostly stems from their ability to produce shots. They have attempted to find the net at least 46 times more than any other side, averaging around 14.5 efforts per 90 over the course of the campaign.

The shots of Bielsa's outfit tend to originate from close range, with around 64.4% taken from inside the penalty box which is higher than the league average of 58.6%. Simply, they forge openings more frequently than any of their opponents, and those openings also tend to be more clear-cut.

On the defensive side of the game, the theme continues. United boast the best record having conceded only 34 goals, and they also have the lowest xG Against.

Leeds United have the best defence in the Championship according to Expected Goals Against (xGA) (@DistanceCovered)

The high quality version of the above graphic can be viewed here.

Bielsa's men have faced at least 33 fewer shots than any other side and according to xG per shot - which offers an insight into how clear-cut a team's chances tend to be on average - only Brentford are more capable when it comes to making things difficult for opponents to convert their attempts.

Once the numbers in question are coupled with United's general possession share, averaging 62.8%, it becomes quite obvious that Bielsa's team exhibits dominance on a regular basis. They are in control, and they leave nothing to chance.

Promotion isn't yet officially confirmed but when it's eventually realised, it will be truly deserved based on what United have showcased on the field this season.

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