We are now less than 36 hours away from the raising of the 2019 world championship banner in Toronto and tip-off between the Raptors and Pelicans to begin the NBA season.
With the season just around the corner, it’s time to unleash a flurry of bold predictions. Let’s start with a prediction about the namesake of this website:
Wild prediction No. 1: LeBron James will lead the NBA in assists for the first time
In the storied career of LeBron James, he has reached nearly every statistical accolade possible. It’s one of the crutches his supporters use in GOAT debates against Michael Jordan — that James did so much more for his teams. But one statistical milestone has eluded him: leading the NBA in assists. This season, he’s going to do it.
LeBron may have more control of the offense than he’s ever had before, as it looks as though he will function as the Lakers’ primary ball-handler, which he usually is anyway. The only difference is the Lakers have designed the team around him to function in this way. They’ve given him shooters on the wing and smaller guards who can defend but don’t necessarily need the ball to create their shots. And that’s before considering the addition of Anthony Davis, the most efficient and prolific scorer LeBron has ever played with.
Consider this: Davis’ career effective field goal percentage of 52.8%, which includes 3-pointers, is better than that of Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade, Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving. He also has a higher career scoring average (23.7 PPG) than all of the above. Davis also has totaled 1,070 dunks over first seven NBA seasons, almost as many as Wade had in his entire career. LeBron will be able to poach assists off him with ease.
Perhaps the only player as efficient around the basket as Davis is Giannis Antetokounmpo. That should be a scary thought for the rest of the NBA and anyone else in contention for the league’s assist title. Pairing Davis in the pick and roll with the outside shooting of Danny Green means the assist title is there for the taking, provided LeBron stays healthy.
Wild prediction No. 2: Portland Trail Blazers guard CJ McColllum will make his first All-Star team
CJ McCollum is no stranger to big playoff performances. In fact, the first breakout moments of his career came in a first-round series against the Memphis Grizzlies in 2014-15. The following season, McCollum used that playoff experience as a springboard to winning the NBA’s Most Improved Player award in 2015-16. After McCollum added a signature playoff win last year in Game 7 of the second round against the Denver Nuggets, McCollum is primed to take another leap.
If Portland, surpasses expectations, as I expect they will, two All-Stars for the Blazers is realistic. With Golden State’s Klay Thompson out with a knee injury, there is a spot for another guard in the Western Conference.
For Portland to get a second All-Star probably will require the Blazers to get off to a fast start, and with a retooled roster, that could be a tall order. But McCollum’s shooting ability and elite scoring prowess makes him a legitimate replacement for Klay Thompson.
Wild prediction No. 3: The Atlanta Hawks, the NBA’s hipster darling of the future, will miss the playoffs
Trae Young is awesome! Kevin Huerter can shoot it! John Collins is a solid offensive player and rebounder! But forgive me if I’m not buying Atlanta as the next Golden State.
I absolutely loathed the Hawks’ offseason. They gave up a bunch of draft capital and took on Soloman Hill’s contract to add rookie DeAndre Hunter, who may turn out to be valuable. But I’ll wait to reserve judgement on that move until he actually plays an NBA game.
Elsewhere down the roster, they gave up a solid forward in Taurean Prince in exchange for Allen Crabbe, a good shooter coming off of a couple of down years in Brooklyn, and they swapped Kent Bazemore to the Blazers for Evan Turner.
Turner may be able to lead a second unit, but the biggest problem is can this team guard anyone? Turner is a good defender, but he’s about to turn 31. Crabbe has decent length but doesn’t have the size to hang with the league’s premier wings. Meanwhile, Alex Len isn’t exactly scaring anyone away from the rim.
Meanwhile, Young is only in his second year, and defense seems to be a real struggle for him. His offense certainly will make the Hawks fun to watch, but I’m cool off the hype. They won’t make the playoffs.
Wild prediction No. 4: Toronto will win the Atlantic Division and earn home-court advantage in the playoffs
I may have alluded to this when I wrote my over-under column last week, but let me be more clear: the Toronto Raptors will win the Atlantic Division and earn home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs.
Many observers have been quick to write off the Raptors, especially with players such as Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka on expiring deals. Losing Kawhi Leonard certainly hurts, but as I look around the East, I don’t see too many teams much better than Toronto.
The Raptors were a juggernaut last year in the regular season, and they have a commitment to playing team basketball on both ends. Nick Nurse has pushed them to embrace ball movement on offense, and they have elite size on the wings with Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby.
Coupling those wings with Kyle Lowry and Fred VanVleet’s shot creation, as well as the veteran savvy of Ibaka and Gasol, I think Toronto will remind everyone why they were in a position to make the Kawhi Leonard trade in the first place.
Wild prediction No. 5: The 2019-20 MVP will be a first-timer
For this selection, I’m partial to Damian Lillard of the Trail Blazers, who has finished sixth in MVP voting last season and fourth in 2017-18. But Lillard isn’t the only first-time candidate that has a real shot at winning MVP this year.
Philadelphia’s Joel Embiid and Denver’s Nikola Jokic also should be in a position to earn votes. Kawhi Leonard, a two-time Finals MVP, also must be considered in his first season with the Clippers.
James Harden, LeBron James, Steph Curry and Giannis will make their cases as well, but I think voters want new blood this season.
Wild prediction No. 6: Houston will have the best record in the West
Harden, as great as his numbers have been in the preseason, will be liberated by the Rockets’ addition of Russell Westbrook.
Several pundits rightly point out that Chris Paul is more efficient than Westbrook. But Westbrook’s availability is his best ability. He will show up to work more nights than Paul did, so Harden won’t have to do as much as in years past.
Westbrook’s ability to create offense on his own in transition and for others will be extremely helpful to Harden. Look for Houston to secure the best record in the Western Conference this season.
