Nicola Sturgeon's Government is considering imposing the toughest covid restrictions on North and South Lanarkshire, according to a leaked document.
The letter shows both council areas could be put into “ level 4 ” - close to lockdown - on November 2.
Infection levels in Dundee are also causing concern and the city could face greater curbs by being placed into level 3.
Glasgow and Edinburgh face no change by staying at level 3.
Nicola Sturgeon announced last week that a new five-level approach would be introduced across the country from November 2 and the level will depend on the spread of Covid-19 in local authority areas.
She explained that areas in the central belt which are currently subject to stricter local restrictions are likely to be classified as level three, while other areas may be equivalent to level two.
She is expected to say tomorrow which levels will apply to different areas.
However, a letter from the Government to COSLA, the council umbrella group, gives a clear indication on the thinking by Ministers.
Written by Kenneth Thomson, a senior civil servant, it states:
“I hope it will be helpful if I set out the approach being taken to these decisions. The starting point is the measures currently in place. These are broadly equivalent to Level 3 in the central belt, and Level 2 elsewhere. Changes from these levels, whether up or down, need to be justified by the data, supported by public health advice and consistent with the Scottish Government’s COVID-19 Framework for Decision-Making."
He explained: “Because of the severity of the impact of the measures in the highest level, Level 4, Ministers will only consider using it if necessary. The data currently indicate that level of concern for two areas: Level 4 is being considered for North and South Lanarkshire.
“There are, however, some signs in the latest data that the situation in those areas may be stabilising. Ministers will not reach a decision for these two areas until the latest possible point to ensure that they can take account of the fullest possible picture of the effect of measures already in place; but at this stage the use of Level 4 cannot be ruled out. If it was necessary, it would be used to avoid still greater harm, including many deaths.
His letter added: “No changes are currently being considered in relation to other central belt areas. If that remains the case and is confirmed later this week, these areas would remain in Level 3 for the time being.
"There are some signs in the data of progress in the east of the central belt area, for example in Edinburgh and East Lothian, but some further consolidation of that progress is likely to be required before it would be safe, on public health grounds, to move them to Level 2.”
He also suggested Dundee could see greater restrictions: “The data for Dundee City also gives cause for concern, with rising numbers of cases. Again, a final decision will be made on the basis of data becoming available in the next few days. Meantime, consideration is being given to moving Dundee City to Level 3 in the new framework, broadly equivalent to the measures currently in place in the central belt.”
The letter claimed the numbers are moving in the right direction in some areas outside the central belt: “There are, however, encouraging signs in the data, signaled by the indicators, in relation to some of the areas presently at Level 2. These are Highland, Moray, Orkney, Shetland, and the Western Isles.”
