An immunology expert believes there need to be clear projections on the extent to which transmission of Covid-19 will be reduced if the easing of restrictions are delayed.
Liam Fanning, who is a Professor in Immunovirology at University College Cork, said that he doesn't see a huge benefit to deferring the reopening of indoor pubs and restaurants by two weeks.
NPHET are expected to give their recommendation to Government today on whether the planned reopening of hospitality should be moved from July 5 to July 19.
Tanaiste Leo Varadkar said it is “not inevitable” that the return of indoor dining and drinking will be delayed beyond this day next week.
However, he added "it would be unlikely" that Cabinet will go against recommendations made by NPHET when it meets to make a decision on Tuesday.
It comes as 305 new cases of Covid-19 were confirmed today, with concern growing among health officials and Ministers about the threat posed by the Delta variant.
Prof Fanning said vaccines offer strong protection from the more transmissible strain of the virus, and if indoor hospitality is set to be moved back by a fortnight, there needs to be clear data to back this up.
He told the Irish Mirror: "If it's delayed by two weeks, it depends what the objective is, if it's delayed by two weeks to get another 600,000 individuals vaccinated then that's a laudable objective.
"However, the delay of two weeks would want to be shown by the modellers that this is actually going to impact on the spread of the virus within the community.
"If it can't be shown to substantially impact on the spread of the virus, well then perhaps additional mitigation measures, such as antigen testing, should be employed before individuals come into particular establishments.
"So holding back for two weeks, I don't see it achieving an awful lot apart from the fact that another 600,000 will be closer towards being vaccinated."
Prof Fanning said that if there are clear health metrics that can show the projected benefits of delaying the reopening of indoor pubs and restaurants, then a deferral of restrictions easing would probably be worth it.
However, he believes there needs to be a broader discussion in Irish society about how we want to live with the virus, and how risk will be balanced.
He added: "If it can be shown that opening on July 5 is going to lead to an increase in infections that cannot be managed by the health system, then we should probably delay it for a few weeks.
"But that delay needs to be balanced against a clear metric of what it is going to achieve.
"If it's only going to achieve a small [decrease] in the risk of the number of infections, we need to have a discussion as a population around risk.
"I think the time is coming to an end where the population will tolerate this ongoing risk-averse day to day living, it's not good for us as a society."
The UCC expert acknowledged that case numbers would likely increase if customers are welcomed back to indoor venues.
However, he said the focus should be on hospitalisations and Ireland has largely broken the link between contracting the virus and being hospitalised.
"What I anticipate, from being around the general Cork area, is that not everybody's understanding of indoor dining with respect to air handling changes [is the same]," Prof Fanning explained.
"There needs to be a comprehensive public information campaign as to what is an appropriate level of ventilation and numbers of customers in a particular restaurant.
"I think we're going to see an increase in the number of documented infection if on July 5, the return of indoor dining is permitted.
"Having said that, we have broken the link between infection and hospitalisations, largely."
Prof Fanning added that the "obsession" with daily case numbers has lost its importance, the metrics that matter are the number of people in hospital and ICU.
"I think the numbers will go up, I heard there's a 10% reduction would be all that would be recorded in the numbers if there was a delay of just two weeks," he said.
He believes that as a society, we need to decide what level of risk we're willing to live with.
It is only by establishing how we wish to create a balance of risk between case numbers and reopening society that decisions such as the issue of lifting restrictions next month can be made, he said.
